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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/23/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Sunday RotoBallers, it's Championship Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, October 23, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 14-5-2 (+5.66 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Phillies
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: PHI -146
SD: Yu Darvish | PHI: Zack Wheeler
We managed to go 2-0 yesterday, keeping the hot playoff streak alive. We'll look to keep the train rolling through this afternoon, grabbing a first-inning under as the Padres look to stay alive and the Phillies look to clinch the World Series for the first time since 2009.
The visiting Padres will send Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA) to the mound. Darvish had struggled a bit allowing runs on the road, allowing a run in six of 17 first innings away from Petco Park. In general, he's been great, though, allowing a run in just eight of 30 starts overall. He's made three starts against the Phillies in 2022, including Game 1 of this series, and hasn't allowed a first inning run in any of them.
Conversely, the Phillies will send Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.92 ERA) to the mound in hopes that he will send them to their first World Series in over a decade. Wheeler was one of the best starters in the first inning this season, allowing a first-inning tally in just one of 13 starts overall and in three of 26 starts overall. Wheeler was stellar in Game 1, holding the Padres to just one hit across seven innings. He's thrown 14 innings against San Diego in 2022 and hasn't allowed a run yet.
FanDuel Sportsbook doesn't have these odds up yet, so we'll head over to DraftKings Sportsbook for this one, where they have the first inning under at -155. My model gives the under a 57.25% chance of hitting this afternoon. While this isn't necessarily a "value" pick according to my model, which gives the under "true" odds of -134, I believe it's the best play we can make in this game.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-155) DraftKings Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Astros @ Yankees
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: NYY -122
HOU: Lance McCullers Jr. | NYY: Nestor Cortes
We'll head back up to New York as the Yankees will look to stave off elimination, as well as the embarrassment of getting swept in this one.
The visiting Astros will send Lance McCullers Jr. (4-2, 2.27 ERA) to the mound. The Astros pitching staff has been marvelous throughout the playoffs and in this series in particular, and I can't say I see that changing tonight. It'll be McCullers's first start against the Yanks in 2022, and my model projects him for a 2.06 xFIP while holding the Yankees to a 22.32% hard contact rate tonight.
Conversely, the Yankees will be sending Nestor Cortes (12-4, 2.44 ERA) to the mound. We've backed Cortes a few times in these playoffs, but we'll be doing the opposite this time. Cortes started one game against Houston this season, allowing three runs on five hits across five innings. The Astros are better against lefties and my model doesn't have that changing in this one. Cortes is projected to a 3.59 xFIP while the Astros offense is projecting to a 32.47% hard contact rate.
Since the Astros are dogs in this one, we're getting solid value here. I won't be betting on them to win the full game, but rather winning on the F5 money line, which FanDuel Sportsbook has at even money, +100. The Astros project better than the Yankees in every important offensive category (wOBA + ISO, hard contact rate, pitch type data, etc.) and it would be foolish not to back them here.
Pick: Astros F5 Money Line (+100) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you Tuesday!
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