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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/21/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Friday RotoBallers, it's Championship Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Friday, October 21, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 11-5-2 (+3.35 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Padres @ Phillies
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: PHI -102
SD: Joe Musgrove | PHI: Ranger Suarez
We finished up Wednesday 1-1, as the Astros decided to wait until the sixth inning to take the lead. We'll take that one on the chin and get right back at it tonight as the NLCS heads to Philly.
The visiting Padres will send Joe Musgrove (10-7, 2.93 ERA) to the mound. It was a shame the Phillies couldn't hold onto their four-run lead on Wednesday and now have the daunting task to take on the Padres ace tonight. I project Musgrove to a 3.46 ERA today while allowing a hard contact rate of 26.81%. Things didn't go so well for Musgrove in his lone start against the Phillies this season, as he allowed six earned runs on seven hits across six innings.
Conversely, the Phillies will send southpaw Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) to the mound. Suarez struggled in his lone start this postseason. While he allowed just one run, but he walked five in just 3.1 innings, a career-high for him. My model has him bouncing back this afternoon though, projecting to a 3.61 xFIP and just a 19.69% hard contact rate. Suarez was on the other side of Musgrove's poor start against the Phillies, tossing 7.1 strong innings while allowing just two earned runs.
Citizens Bank Park is surely going to be rocking tonight, as the Phillies play their first NLCS game at home since 2010. I won't be backing them to win here, but I will take their F5 run line +0.5 at just -142. I think the Phillies stay hot at home after outscoring the defending World Champions 17-4 at the Park, and I'll back them to keep it close today.
Pick: Phillies F5 +0.5 (-142) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you tomorrow!
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