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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 10/11/22. His free picks against the spread, teasers, parlays, and MLB player props.
Happy Tuesday RotoBallers, it's Division Series time and we're back for another day of MLB Postseason betting picks. Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been working around the clock to make sure we can get you guys the best betting picks, props, and lineups throughout the season. We're happy you're here with us and are looking forward to an extremely profitable 2022 postseason!
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If you're new, or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for four years now, and this is my second MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and money lines. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Sunday, October 9, 2022. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2022 MLB Betting Picks
Playoffs: 3-2 (+0.32 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Phillies @ Braves
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: ATL -198
PHI: Ranger Suarez | ATL: Max Fried
Unfortunately, we dropped our only play on Sunday, as the Mets "Mets'd" and were unable to push a single run across against Padres righty Joe Musgrove. All credit to Musgrove, who pitched himself an awesome game. We'll look to bounce back today, and start our afternoon off with a first inning under.
The visiting Phillies will send Ranger Suarez (10-7, 3.65 ERA) to the mound. Suarez has been darn good in the first inning this season, allowing a tally in just three of 15 opening frames and in just seven of 28 overall. Suarez made five starts against the Braves in the regular season, two of which were in Atlanta, and didn't allow a first-inning run in any of them.
Conversely, the Braves will send Max Fried (14-7, 2.48 ERA) to the mound. Fried has had himself an incredible season, and unsurprisingly, has been great in the first inning as well. He allowed a first-inning run in just two of 18 starts at home this season, and in just two of 30 starts overall. Fried made four starts against the Phillies in the regular season and held them scoreless in the first in each of them as well.
If you noticed I didn't take a first-inning under in any of the Wild Card games over the weekend, simply because I didn't think we were getting good value on them. That's not the case here, as FanDuel Sportsbook has the under at -132. My model gives the under a 61.81% chance of hitting, good for "true" odds of -162.
Pick: Under 0.5 First-Inning Runs (-132) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Mariners @ Astros
O/U: 6.5 | Moneyline: HOU -220
SEA: Logan Gilbert | HOU: Justin Verlander
We'll stick with the two early games on the slate, as we head out to Houston and take a look at a first-five play.
The visiting Mariners will be sending Logan Gilbert (13-6, 3.20 ERA) to the mound. Having Gilbert as your number-three starter isn't the worst thing in the world by any means, but I just can't see him outpitching Justin Verlander this afternoon. To his credit, he did throw a quality start in each of his four starts against the Astros in Houston. However, like them or not, the Astros are a different animal in the postseason.
The home team will be sending (to be named) AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (18-4, 1.75 ERA) to the mound. Verlander finished the season with the best ERA in the AL in over 20 years and pitched darn well in his six starts against Seattle this season. He did have an outlier start back on May 27, allowing six runs across six innings. In his other five starts, he tossed 36.1 innings while allowing just five runs.
FanDuel Sportsbook has juiced up both the full-game and first-five Houston money lines. We'll look at the Astros F5 -0.5 here, which FanDuel has listed at -150. I think it's simply a matter of "good" against "great" here or "hungry" against "experienced". I'll back the great and experienced Astros in the first five with the superior starter on the mound this afternoon.
Pick: Astros F5 -0.5 (-150) FanDuel Sportsbook, 1 unit
Good luck, RotoBallers, and make sure to follow my Twitter for more plays. See you in tomorrow!
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