RADIO
What a wonderful time for sports! Russell Wilson is a Bronco, Khalil Mack is a Charger, and baseball is back! It's been quite the action-packed week to say the least. The best part? It's only going to get more chaotic.
Starting on March 14th, NFL teams can begin negotiating with players, looking to boost their roster for a championship push. This year especially, there is going to be a lot of roster movement, as we've already seen.
When it comes to fantasy football, free agency can have a drastic effect on the upcoming season. Every skill player that changes team is not only seeing their stock change, but they are also affecting every member of the team they sign with in terms of commanding opportunities. In such a team sport, the domino effect is clearly present here. Today, we'll be looking at the top-ten free agent running backs. Which running backs could soar on new teams? Let us dive deep into this free agent class!
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Leonard Fournette
- Age: 27
- Previous Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Optimal Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Heading into last season, Leonard Fournette wasn't even the highest-drafted running back on his own team. So, naturally, he finished seventh in points per game last season, and with in PFF expected points per game. Who would've thought?
As a former top-five pick, Fournette has the draft capital on his side to be a coveted asset. He was the workhorse running back for the Jaguars, but was cut loose prior to the 2020 season. That's when Tampa Bay brought him in, and his career was revitalized.
This past season, Fournette set a career-high in PFF rushing grade (80) and averaged 3.11 yards after contact/attempt. Meanwhile, he was a fixture in the passing game for Tom Brady, catching 78 passes for 510 yards. This nearly is a replicate of his 2019 season (76 receptions, 522 receiving yards), making it clear that he has established himself as a weapon in the passing game.
It's unlikely that Fournette is in a position to catch as man passes as he did last year. However, between his draft capital and his production last season, he's in a position to be a three-down back, which is exactly what we're looking for in fantasy football. I'd like if the 27-year-old was able to stay in Tampa Bay, who already views him in a favorable way, though I wouldn't expect him to sign into a committee situation.
James Conner
- Age: 26
- Previous Team: Arizona Cardinals
- Optimal Landing Spot: Arizona Cardinals
James Conner's season last year parallels to Leonard Fournette in a lot of ways. He was also a discounted running back in last year's draft, and wasn't even the highest-drafted one on his own team. In total, he ended up finishing one sport ahead of Fournette (6th) in points per game, leading to him being one of the top values in next year's draft.
When you think of Conner, you'll see his limited athleticism, combined with his 233-pound frame, and immediately point to him being a prototypical "thumper". However, that's not such a bad thing. Only Jonathan Taylor had more expected touchdowns last season than him, which spiked his value. Even if he's not the most explosive runner, the opportunities he could naturally get in short yardage situations is optimal for fantasy purposes.
That being said, there's more to Conner's skillset than just that – he's also useful as a receiver. Last season, he earned an 84.8 PFF receiving grade, in addition to 1.59 yards/route run. Meanwhile, his 89.1 PFF pass-block grade, increasing the likelihood that he's used in passing downs.
See, the Cardinals initially didn't use Conner in passing downs. After Chase Edmonds got injured though, Conner saw a dramatic increase in his role, leading to him returning fringe top-ten value. Since it's likely Arizona can't sign both of them, could you imagine the upside if Conner is the sole lead back for that offense? Even if the touchdowns don't stand, his work in the receiving game would be well appreciated, and he'd get plenty of opportunities in the red zone. There's more committee risk here than Fournette, but the upside is high if he returns to Arizona.
Rashaad Penny
- Age: 26
- Previous Team: Seattle Seahawks
- Optimal Landing Spot: Miami Dolphins
Remember when the Seahawks shocked most of the draft community when they selected Rashaad Penny in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft? In hindsight, they may have been onto something. There were a lot of indicators – a 50.1% dominator rating, a 92nd percentile speed score – that would lead you to believe that Penny would be successful at the NFL level.
Unfortunately, injuries have plagued Penny significantly. Over the first three years of his career, he had just 165 carries due to various injuries, leading to Seattle declining his fifth-year option. A calf injury caused him to be a non-factor through Week 12, but it all came together afterward.
Over the final six weeks of the season, Penny was the highest-graded running back (90.1) from Pro Football Focus. For the whole season, he led the league in yards per carry (6.3), yards after contact/carry (4.52), and breakaway rate (52.3%). In other words, a case can be made that he was one of the best pure runners in all of football.
What will Penny's free agency going to look like? He hasn't shown the ability to stay healthy, but the talent is tantalizing. For me, I'm siding with the latter, but I can understand if teams are wary of him. Ultimately, here's hoping that draft capital wins out; based on pure talent, he's the #1 free agent running back. The decreased likelihood he ends up as a non-committee back lowers him to #3, but he's likely to be a great target in fantasy drafts based on his price.
Chase Edmonds
- Age: 25
- Former Team: Arizona Cardinals
- Optimal Landing Spot: Arizona Cardinals
As a fourth-round pick from Fordham with limited size (5'9", 210 pounds), Chase Edmonds certainly isn't your prototype running back. However, that doesn't mean that you, and NFL teams should discount him.
The Cardinals' system was perfect for Edmonds. He isn't someone who is going to create much yardage after contact, but he works well in open space. Well, head coach Kliff Kingsbury's offensive system does a nice job of spreading out the defensive line, leading to someone with Edmonds' rushing style to flourish.
Overall, Edmonds averaged 5 yards/carry, and is now averaged at least 4.6 yards/carry in each of the past three seasons. Plus, you saw him line up in the slot a decent bit, while being the team's clear receiving back. Wherever he goes, he's likely someone to be more valuable in PPR formats based on how teams will perceive him.
However, what if Arizona brought him back to be the team's lead back? In the two games Conner was hurt (Week 16 and 17), Edmonds averaged 20.9 PFF expected fantasy points per game, in addition to 17 carries and seven targets. That certainly will work. I'm guessing Edmonds doesn't land in that situation, but he has a high floor as someone who is going to see a lot of usage on passing downs. Who will the Cardinals decide to bring back? Man, I'm conflicted!
Cordarrelle Patterson
- Age: 31
- Former Team: Atlanta Falcons
- Optimal Landing Spot: Atlanta Falcons
Every year, there are a few players that literally come out of nowhere to become top fantasy football waiver wire targets. After an RB4 finish in Week 2, that became Cordarelle Patterson. The expectation when Mike Davis signed with Atlanta was that he'd be the three-down back; there didn't seem to be anyone on the roster that would compete for snaps for him. Of course, we clearly did not see the rise of Patterson coming into effect. That being said, I'm not even sure the Falcons did.
See, Patterson's usage varied greatly throughout the season. Initially, he was more of the team's receiving back, commanding 26 targets between Weeks 2 and 5. After Week 9, though, he averaged just 2.5 targets; he became more of the team's early-down thumper. This isn't the ideal role for someone of his skillset, so the hope was that was done more out of need than anything else.
Based on the Falcons limiting Patterson's usage during the final few weeks of the season, you'd assume they would have interest in bringing him back. There are some rumors it may not be a fit money wise, and I can see why. Right now, the obsession around the NFL is with dual threats that can line up at wide receiver and running back, which Patterson can clearly do. There clearly was a fit with him in Atlanta, so it'd be better for him if he stood pat and worked his way into the role he had initially, but I can see this going multiple ways. Don't bank on him repeating last year's success, yet there's some reason to be optimistic in the right scenario.
Melvin Gordon III
- Age: 28
- Former Team: Denver Broncos
- Optimal Landing Spot: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Usually, players don't getter better with age, especially at the running back position. However, I guess that doesn't apply to Melvin Gordon III!
Gordon has now posted back-to-back seasons with a PFF rushing grade over 80, in addition to a 3.11 yards after contact/attempt in that span – a strong number. With the Broncos, he showcased the ability to work either a zone or gap rushing scheme, while he became the team's most trusted option in clear rushing situations, ahead of rookie Javonte Williams.
There are some red flags with Gordon. For starters, he's past the 1500 carry threshold, which has been found to be around where running backs crater off in terms of production. Meanwhile, he won't be a fit for certain teams due to his lack of receiving ability; he's earned receiving grades of 52.9, 36.4, and 50.7 over the past three seasons. As a result, it's very hard to find an ideal landing spot for him.
Most likely, Gordon is going to end up in a spot where he's the lead back for a poor offense, such as the Seahawks or Texans. That actually may hold more value that if he's the less part of a committee, such as if he goes back to Denver. He's certainly going to have some fantasy relevance, but I don't see a scenario where he's a player you regret not drafting. For all of the football community, though, please let Javonte Williams do his thing with the Broncos!
Sony Michel
- Age: 27
- Former Team: Los Angeles Rams
- Optimal Landing Spot: Miami Dolphins
The University of Georgia has been a pipeline when it comes to producing talent at the running back position. Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in the NFL, but it was Sony Michel, his college teammate, who was drafted before him.
When the Patriots selected Michel with the 31st pick in the 2018 draft, expectations were high for him. Immediately, he was the starting running back for a Super Bowl winner, providing a very useful impact. Over the first two years of his career, he combined for 456 carries, and seemed to be establishing himself as a lead back.
2020 was a different story, however. Michel got injured in the third week of the season, and then fell out of favor to Damien Harris. When the team compounded that by drafting Rhamondre Stevenson in the fourth round, it was clearly time for Michel to find his new team.
When the Rams acquired Michel, the hope was that he, not Darrell Henderson, would be the team's lead back, replacing the injured Cam Akers. Instead, Henderson assumed the lead role, and maintained it through Week 12. Then, he missed time due to injury, allowing Michel to finally get that role. In that span, Michel averaged 21.5 carries, 90 rushing yards, and 13.93 fantasy points- quite the showcase.
With PFF rushing grades of 73.5 and 76.5 over the past two seasons, respectively, Michel has established himself as a quality runner. He's not someone to have a lot of faith in the receiving game, which is strange; it was a strength of his in college. It's likely he ends up in a committee situation, though it may be even better if he ends as a valuable handcuff. The draft capital and production when called on should land him in a decent enough situation to monitor him, similarly to where he was with the Rams last year. So, will it be a contending team with an established running back, or a place where he can compete to be the lead back? We'll just have to wait and see!
Raheem Mostert
- Age: 29
- Former Team: San Francisco 49ers
- Optimal Landing Spot: Miami Dolphins
From a former first-round pick to a former undrafted free agent. Kyle Shanahan's ability to get production out of any running back is a common narrative out there, and Raheem Mostert is a main reason why.
After not playing any sort of role for the first three seasons, Mostert came on late in the 2018 season, and then took off in 2019 for a team that got to the Super Bowl. For his career, we're talking about a dynamic player who has averaged 5.7 yards/carry, has had a PFF rushing grade over 77 in his two full seasons, and also has been quite explosive (37.1% breakaway).
Of course, Mostert has struggled to stay healthy, and likely can't be trusted with a big role on his new team. He missed practically all of the 2021 season due to a knee injury, and was limited in 2020 as well. At his peak, he's a change-of-pace back with clear explosiveness, though probably not someone a team will give 20 carries to.
With his explosiveness, that's fine! If he can come from his injury okay, Mostert could be a great complement for a bigger, "thumping" running back. He could end up back in San Francisco, which wouldn't be ideal with the rise of Elijah Mitchell. How about him following new head Mike McDaniel to Miami? If he can have a similar role there, there could be at least a few spike weeks for him, making him an ideal best-ball pick. With how dynamic of a runner he is, I'm excited to see where he ends up!
Justin Jackson
- Age: 25
- Former Team: Los Angeles Chargers
- Optimal Landing Spot: Los Angeles Chargers
When you google "underrated running back," Justin Jackson should be the name that comes to mind. We're talking about someone who has averaged five yards/carry throughout his four-year career, 3.26 yards after contact/attempt, as well as a 40% breakaway rate.
For context, here are Jackson's PFF rushing grades in each of the past four seasons, albeit in small samples:
- 2021: 66.9
- 2020: 76.3
- 2019: 89.5
- 2018: 78.1
Jackson has never gotten much of an opportunity, but he has been quite efficient when he has gotten the chance; he's also been efficient as a receiver. Based on his seventh-round draft capital and the fact he's never gotten an opportunity, he's likely to simply end up signing as a backup running back. For this reason, going back to the Chargers would be an ideal fit, as he'd be a valuable handcuff to Austin Ekeler. Regardless, though, he's someone worth keeping a close eye on.
Ronald Jones
- Age: 24
- Former Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Optimal Landing Spot: Seattle Seahawks
Ever since he was drafted in the second round of the 2018 NFL Draft, it feels as though we've been waiting on the Ronald Jones breakout. Yet, we continue to wait on it.
To be fair, this appeared to be taking place during the 2020 season. Jones earned an 85 PFF rushing grade, while he averaged 5.1 yards/carry and 3.65 yards after contact/carry. His work was limited in the passing game, but with how effective he was as a runner, there was a reason he was the highest-drafted Buccaneers running back.
Unfortunately for Jones, things went south in 2021. Immediately, he found himself in head coach Bruce Arians' dog house, and wasn't able to work his way out of it. Instead, Leonard Fournette became the true three-down back, while Jones didn't play much of a role out all this year.
Now, Jones hits free agency, where he almost certainly won't be brought back by the Bucs. He's still a talented rusher who could work in a gap-rushing scheme, such as Baltimore. I'd bet on him signing with a poorer offense with a better chance at opportunities, such as Atlanta or Seattle. The lack of receiving ability really caps his receiving ability, though perhaps he can work his way into a larger role based on rushing success. That's the hope, at least!
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