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BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 150

CURRENT ADP: ~194 overall

ANALYSIS: To begin last season, San Diego Padres outfielder Franmil Reyes was coming off of a 2017 season where he had a .258/.322/.464 slash line in Double-A, hitting 25 home runs and knocking in 102 batters. In 2018, now in Triple-A, he bettered those numbers with a .324/.428/.614 slash line, hitting 16 home runs in just 250 plate appearances. When he made the jump to the big leagues, his slash line of .280/.340/.498 was impressive, as were his 16 bombs in 285 plate appearances.

After sputtering to a .689 OPS in May and .744 OPS in May, Reyes had a .500 OPS in June and was back in the minors. Then he had a 1.052 OPS in August, including seven home runs, and closed the season with an .849 OPS in Sept/Oct. He has solidified a role in the Padres outfield for 2019, even though his .326 batting average in Sept/Oct was luckily considering his .397 BABIP. After posting hard hit ball rates in the 40's in May, June, and July (with a better rate each month), Reyes dropped to 37.5% in August. Reyes hit seven home runs in August, but that came without a boost in fly ball rate and a drop in line drive rate as well; his HR/FB rate was an unsustainable 43.8%. While August did not look great, Reyes was much better in Sept/Oct: he posted a season-best 22.5% line drive rate and 50.7% hard-hit ball rate.

His ADP of 194 shows that many are not buying into Reyes maintaining his strong batting average from 2018, looking at him as more of a power-only option. It is also not great that Petco Park is a pitcher's ballpark, but the young nucleus of the Padres will put Reyes in a spot where he will have runners on base in front of him. Even if he is just a streamer in 2019, it is likely that Reyes is still going to be a useful player.


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