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Frankie Montas bounced back in 2021 after having a disappointing season in 2020. Brad Camara looks back at Montas' season and fantasy baseball value while projecting next year's ADP.
Frankie Montas was a trendy sleeper pick during the 2021 baseball offseason as fantasy managers thought he could rebound after a sub-par 2020 season. The 28-year-old struggled with a 5.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP while surrendering 10 homers over 11 starts in 2020. Montas bounced back in a big way and ended the 2021 season on a high note, posting a 4-0 record along with a 1.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 55:18 K:BB over his last eight starts.
Montas broke out in 2019 with a 2.63 ERA and a 103:23 K:BB before being suspended for 80 games for testing positive for performance-enhancing substances. He was named the Opening Day starter in 2020 but dealt with a back injury and struggled to recapture his 2019 form. The Athletics' right-hander was selected outside the top-40 pitchers in re-draft leagues as fantasy managers wondered if Montas could rebound after an off-year in 2020.
Managers who took the gamble and selected Montas in the later rounds of 2021 fantasy drafts were rewarded. Let's look back at his season
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Montas Bounces Back In 2021
Let's start by checking out his final pitching line:
2021: 32 GS, 187 IP, 3.37 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 26.6% K%, 7.3% BB%, 42.8% GB%
click to enlarge
Montas was being drafted outside of the top-150 picks (160.09 ADP) heading into 2021 fantasy baseball drafts. He ended up obliterating his ADP by having a career year in 2021. The 28-year-old owned a 13-9 record along with a 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 207:57 K:BB over 187 innings. He also held an impressive 10.0 K/9, 14.1 swinging strike percentage, and his fastball averaged 96.4 MPH. Montas finished the season strong by being named the AL Pitcher of the Month in September.
Take a bow, 47.@FrankieMontas is your AL Pitcher of the Month. pic.twitter.com/i3AdvuqlZa
— Oakland A's (@Athletics) October 4, 2021
Montas' 207 strikeouts in 2021 are the second-most by an Athletics starter. The 28-year-old relied on his sinker (29.2%), four-seam fastball (29%), and split-finger (22.4%) to retire hitters last season. His most successful pitch was the splitter which had a whiff rate of 51.4% and put way 26.4% hitters.
Montas used his splitter 33.6% of the time, which helped improve his ERA from 4.72 (April-June) to 2.65 (July-August). Fantasy managers know Montas was unhittable in September and his splitter usage was one of the reasons why. The Athletics right-hander led all American League pitchers in fWAR (2.5) in the second half.
Frankie Montas 2021
April - June:
4.72 ERA, 16.9% splitter usageJuly - August:
2.65 ERA, 33.6% splitter usageFantasy stock 📈📈
— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) August 7, 2021
What To Expect From Montas In 2022
Montas threw a career-high 187 innings and, with his strong finish to the 2021 season, is expected to be drafted as a top-25 starter in upcoming 2022 fantasy baseball drafts. The A's right-hander's fastball velocity was 88 MPH, allowing a 23% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters. Take a look at his Statcast chart below:
Overall, he had an impressive second-half of the season and stepped up to be a fantasy ace, leading managers to a championship in 2021. Can he put it all together for a second straight year? The short answer is yes. Montas has an elite splitter and should post another year of 10-12 wins, sub 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 175 strikeouts in 2022. Fantasy managers won't regret selecting Montas in the middle rounds, and he makes a strong SP2 in upcoming 2022 drafts.
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