Frankie Montas 2021 Year-in-Review

November 8, 2021

Frankie Montas bounced back in 2021 after having a disappointing season in 2020. Brad Camara looks back at Montas' season and fantasy baseball value while projecting next year's ADP.

Frankie Montas was a trendy sleeper pick during the 2021 baseball offseason as fantasy managers thought he could rebound after a sub-par 2020 season. The 28-year-old struggled with a 5.80 ERA, 1.51 WHIP while surrendering 10 homers over 11 starts in 2020. Montas bounced back in a big way and ended the 2021 season on a high note, posting a 4-0 record along with a 1.59 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and a 55:18 K:BB over his last eight starts.

Montas broke out in 2019 with a 2.63 ERA and a 103:23 K:BB before being suspended for 80 games for testing positive for performance-enhancing substances. He was named the Opening Day starter in 2020 but dealt with a back injury and struggled to recapture his 2019 form. The Athletics' right-hander was selected outside the top-40 pitchers in re-draft leagues as fantasy managers wondered if Montas could rebound after an off-year in 2020.

Managers who took the gamble and selected Montas in the later rounds of 2021 fantasy drafts were rewarded. Let's look back at his season

Montas Bounces Back In 2021

Let's start by checking out his final pitching line:

2021: 32 GS, 187  IP, 3.37 ERA, 3.64 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 26.6% K%, 7.3% BB%, 42.8% GB%

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Montas was being drafted outside of the top-150 picks (160.09 ADP) heading into 2021 fantasy baseball drafts. He ended up obliterating his ADP by having a career year in 2021. The 28-year-old owned a 13-9 record along with a 3.37 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and a 207:57 K:BB over 187 innings. He also held an impressive 10.0 K/9, 14.1 swinging strike percentage, and his fastball averaged 96.4 MPH. Montas finished the season strong by being named the AL Pitcher of the Month in September.

Take a bow, 47.@FrankieMontas is your AL Pitcher of the Month. pic.twitter.com/i3AdvuqlZa

— Oakland A's (@Athletics) October 4, 2021

Montas' 207 strikeouts in 2021 are the second-most by an Athletics starter. The 28-year-old relied on his sinker (29.2%), four-seam fastball (29%), and split-finger (22.4%) to retire hitters last season. His most successful pitch was the splitter which had a whiff rate of 51.4% and put way 26.4% hitters.

Montas used his splitter 33.6% of the time, which helped improve his ERA from 4.72 (April-June) to 2.65 (July-August). Fantasy managers know Montas was unhittable in September and his splitter usage was one of the reasons why. The Athletics right-hander led all American League pitchers in fWAR (2.5) in the second half.

Frankie Montas 2021

April - June:
4.72 ERA, 16.9% splitter usage

July - August:
2.65 ERA, 33.6% splitter usage

Fantasy stock 📈📈

— Brendan Tuma (@toomuchtuma) August 7, 2021

What To Expect From Montas In 2022

Montas threw a career-high 187 innings and, with his strong finish to the 2021 season, is expected to be drafted as a top-25 starter in upcoming 2022 fantasy baseball drafts. The A's right-hander's fastball velocity was 88 MPH, allowing a 23% hard-hit rate to opposing hitters. Take a look at his Statcast chart below:

Overall, he had an impressive second-half of the season and stepped up to be a fantasy ace, leading managers to a championship in 2021. Can he put it all together for a second straight year? The short answer is yes. Montas has an elite splitter and should post another year of 10-12 wins, sub 3.75 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 175 strikeouts in 2022. Fantasy managers won't regret selecting Montas in the middle rounds, and he makes a strong SP2 in upcoming 2022 drafts.

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