I played in a net steals league a couple years back. It did not go well. In preparation for the auction draft, I foolishly assumed I could rely on standard steals projections. My plan for this particular auction was to sport a balanced attack, targeting guys with cross-category upside instead of chasing players with one major carrying tool.

This plan failed in myriad ways, but most spectacularly in the net steals department. I secured services of players such as Alex Rios (42 steals in 2013), Ben Zobrist (11), and Shin-Soo Choo (20) — this was in 2014 by way — and assumed I could bank on those guys to shoulder much of the load on the base paths.

How wrong I was. The threesome netted a paltry +12 steals, and I finished last in the category by a wide margin.

Needless to say, I regretted many things about this draft, but I especially regretted my neglect of the net aspect of the steals category. Choo was by far the biggest oversight in this regard. While he was coming off back-to-back 20 steal seasons, he had been caught on a whopping 36.7 percent of his attempts. In 2014, because of injuries and age, his attempts declined; his caught stealing percentage spiked to 57 percent; and I paid the price.

With this article, I’m hoping to steer you away from the same pitfall that helped sink my season. Toward that effort, I’m going to give you five players to avoid in net steals leagues.

Net Steals Busts

Be warned, when I say to avoid a player such as Mike Trout, which I will momentarily, I don’t mean don’t draft him. He’s a top three player, steals or no, but I want to be sure those in net leagues understand not to count on him in to swipe a handful of bags, because … well, this:

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

2015: Steals: 11; Caught Stealing: 7; Net: +4

Again, I’m not saying don’t draft him. Just don’t rely on him for double-digit steals, because even if he exceeds more than 20 tries this season, based on last year’s terrible 61 percent success rate, your net profit will be minimal. Simply put, Trout has become more of power hitter the past couple years and has worried less and less about causing trouble on the base paths. It’s not a big deal. It just means you have to look at him a bit more like Chris Davis and Giancarlo Stanton in that you’ll need to target a speedster later to pair with him.

Dee Gordon, 2B, Miami Marlins

2015: Steals: 58; Caught Stealing: 20; Net: +38

Yep, I’m going after the back-to-back steals champion. Again, he’s a wonderful source of stolen bases, but in a net league, he’s not the standard-bearer he’s become in … ehem ... standard formats. Considering what little else he brings to the table — unless you believe in that .333 batting average (Steamer doesn’t) — that’s troublesome. Consider: His 58 stolen bases last year were one more than Billy Hamilton. But Hamilton was caught only eight times, giving him a net of +49, far superior to Gordon’s +38. It gets worse. In total steals, Gordon boasted a margin of +15 and +19 over Charlie Blackmon (43 steals) and A.J. Pollock (39). That’s massive in standard leagues. However, in net leagues, his advantages plummet to +7 on Pollock and and +8 on Blackmon.

It bears repeating: Gordon still is an excellent choice in any format, but because he only swipes bags a 76.4 percent clip, his value takes a serious hit in net leagues.

Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

2015: Steals: 12; Caught Stealing: 2; Net: +10

Hat tip to Steamer for cluing me in on Lindor, whose 85 percent success rate last year had me fooled. But Steamer knows better. Steamer took one look at Lindor’s 68.1 percent success rate in the minors and called BS on Lindor’s 2015. In fact, Steamer is so irritated by his fluky 2015, that it projects the youngster for a terrible 2016 success rate of 61.2 percent, forecasting a net of +7 steals on 31 attempts. Plus 7 steals for a guy with meh power and so-so batting skills on a bad offense? Pass. Oh, and his current NFBC ADP is 61st overall and fifth among shortstops. Hard pass.

Starling Marte, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

2015: Steals: 30; Caught Stealing: 10; Net: +20

Just playing a hunch here, but consider: In 135 games in 2013, Marte stole 41 bags. In the same number of games the next season, that number dropped to 30. Last season, in an additional 22 games (almost 100 more at-bats), he managed only to match his 2014 output of 30 steals. Seems like he’s slowing down, no?

I know it sounds like I’m on crazy pills given his age (27), but say he does get banged up and miss some time. All of a sudden, you’re looking at maybe 25 total steals. And this from a player who has been caught stealing, on average, about 12 times per full season. Now, instead of +20, you’re looking at about +13, a precipitous 33 percent drop in production. And this a guy whom many doubt will be able to maintain the power spike he enjoyed last season. I know this is a lot of worst-case-scenario talk, but the easy downside here is a .280 hitter with 15 home runs and +13 net stolen bases. Doesn’t sound like the late-second- early-third-round pick he’s being drafted as.

Todd Frazier, 3B, Chicago White Sox

2015: Steals: 13; Caught Stealing: 8; Net: +5

In standard leagues, a guy who hits 54 home runs and swipes 33 bags in a two-year span is a dream. However, in net steals leagues, Frazier is value is almost strictly power. His 67 percent success rate over that same time period paired with new coach’s reluctance to run — the White Sox were 19th in attempts last season — means Frazier’s contribution slips to four categories instead of five. Put another way:

Player A: .255/.309/.508; 35 HR, 89 RBI; net steals +5

Player B: .244/.307/.480; 40 HR, 95 RBI, net steals +2

Fairly similar, no? Player A is Frazier. Player B is Albert Pujols. Pujols has an NFBC ADP of 92. Frazier is at 43.

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