Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!


Receive free daily analysis


Already have an account? Log In


Forgot Password


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts

Finding Under and Overvalued 3B Using Expected Draft Values

We've been rolling out our Expected Draft Values series, starting with Nick Mariano's look into some undervalued players and overvalued players. Today, we're going to give you some undervalued and overvalued players who qualify at third base.

As a quick primer, Expected Draft Value is the value you would historically expect, on average, from a given draft slot. In other words, Expected Draft Value lets you put a stat line next to every pick in the draft... if the player you draft performs better than expected, you get positive value. If the player you draft performs worse than expected, that's negative value. As we all know, a fantasy draft is all about maximizing the potential positive value from every pick.

For example, we can say that "if you draft a power + average hitter 97th overall, your Expected Draft Value should be a line of 285-26-76-75-4. That's your 'break even point'. If you draft a player at 97 who performs better than that, you win, or at least put yourself one player closer to winning.  For a full explanation of our Expected Draft Value research, see Nick's article's from yesterday, linked above. >With the introduction out of the way, let’s dive into some undervalued and overvalued third basemen!

Featured Promo: Get any full-season MLB and DFS Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Team Sync platform, Premium articles, daily Matchup Rating projections, 15 lineup tools, DFS cheat sheets, Research Stations, Lineup Optimizers and much more! Go Premium, Win More!


Undervalued Third Basemen to Target

Justin Turner - 3B, LAD

Expected Return for a Power + Batting Average Hitter Drafted 109th: 286-26-75-75-3
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: 297-22-82-82-4

The value with Turner is mostly found within his batting average. As you see above a player who contributes in both batting average and power and it taken around the 109th pick usually contribute a .286 batting averge. However, Turner has the potential to get into the .300 region.

If you look at his Statcast xBA for each of the last two seasons, then his current batting average projection is actually his floor. Power wise he is a little below what we might expect at this level but those extra four or five home runs can be found later in the draft, batting average cannot.

Maikel Franco - 3B, PHI

NFBC ADP: 267.5
Expected Return for a Power Hitter Drafted 265th: 222-28-76-64-3
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: 258-25.5-80-64.5-1.5

2018 was a better season for Franco, as he hit 22 home runs with a .270 batting average in just 465 PA. Given his current ADP Franco can afford to regress a little in his batting average this season and still return value. Over the last three years, he averaged 23.7 home runs per season, and has not been below 20 in any of those years. The batting average is the bigger question mark as it has fluctuated from .230 to .280 over the last four seasons.

His xBA across those four season has been pretty much dead on his current projection at .256. If Franco reaches his projection then he is more than likely to find himself among the top-200 hitters for fantasy which means a substantial profit on his low ADP.


Overvalued Third Basemen to Target

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

Expected Return for an Power + Batting Average Hitter Drafted 63rd: 302-28-86-80-4
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: 299-21.5-78-75.5-5

Guerrero's fantasy value has received a massive pump thanks to the success of recent prospects in the majors. Guerrero is an extremely talented hitter but his expectations are absolutely sky high. His value has gotten more realistic since his oblique injury. However as you can see from the numbers expected above, his current projection doesn't meet the break even point we would need to return value from a power and batting average hitter drafted 63rd.

The issue with the way Guerrero was being drafted earlier in draft season is that the majority of his upside was being negated by the high price. His current price is better but it is still a round or two higher than the value his current projections indicate.

Joey Wendle - 2B/3B TB

Expected Return for a Power, Speed Hitter Drafted 225th: 242-15-60-68-16
2019 The Bat + ATC Projection: 266-9.5-55.5-57.5-12

Wendle had a fascinating 2018 season, hitting .300 with seven home and 16 stolen bases. However, his current draft price is not only assuming he can do that again but that he can go one better. His batting average is the most interesting as his actual number last season (.300) was .039 higher than his xBA (.261). Therefore, it is reasonable to expect some regression this season. Even though regression down to his xBA from last season would still be an improvement on the batting average expected return for his ADP, the other numbers are a concern.

Wendle did manage to succeed in 80% of his stolen base attempts last season, thanks to ranking in the 81st percentile in sprint speed. However, repeating his 16 stolen bases is likely his upside. In terms of power, it s a major concern that Wendle had a barrel% of just 2.7 last season, leading to a exit velocity ranked in just the 47th percentile. It would be a surprise if Wendle finished with double digit home runs this season, and the lack of upside in either his power or speed is what makes him overvalued at this price.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis


Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
News and Alerts


Dalton Schultz18 mins ago

Won't Play In Week 13
Noah Brown21 mins ago

Tank Dell, Noah Brown Questionable For Week 13
Dorian Thompson-Robinson33 mins ago

Won't Play Sunday, Joe Flacco To Start
Keenan Allen1 hour ago

Questionable For Week 13
Dallas Goedert1 hour ago

Doubtful To Play In Week 13
Treylon Burks2 hours ago

Questionable To Face Colts
DeMar DeRozan2 hours ago

Uncertain To Play Against Pelicans On Saturday
Pat Connaughton2 hours ago

Ruled Out On Saturday
Keegan Murray2 hours ago

Practices On Friday
Chris Olave2 hours ago

Still In Concussion Protocol But Not Ruled Out
Doug McDermott2 hours ago

Will Not Play Against Pelicans
Luka Doncic2 hours ago

Ruled Out On Friday Due To Personal Reasons
Joel Embiid2 hours ago

Will Be True Game-Time Decision On Friday
Devin Booker2 hours ago

Will Sit Out Against Nuggets On Friday
Victor Wembanyama2 hours ago

Will Be Sidelined On Friday
Trey McBride2 hours ago

Iffy For Week 13 Action
Marquise Brown2 hours ago

Officially Questionable Against Steelers
Julius Randle2 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable On Friday
Dalvin Cook2 hours ago

Breece Hall, Dalvin Cook Questionable For Week 13
Treylon Burks3 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 13
Aaron Jones3 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 13
Jerick McKinnon3 hours ago

Chiefs Expect Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney To Play In Week 13
Dougie Hamilton4 hours ago

Simon Nemec Called Up To Devils Friday, Dougie Hamilton Placed On IR
Zach Charbonnet4 hours ago

Dealing With Swelling In Knee
Adin Hill4 hours ago

Leaves Thursday's Contest Early As Precaution
Timo Meier4 hours ago

Close To Returning, Could Play Friday
Jonathan Taylor4 hours ago

Officially Ruled Out
Sam Montembeault4 hours ago

Signs Three-Year Extension With Canadiens
Nikita Zadorov4 hours ago

Traded To Vancouver
Kenneth Walker III4 hours ago

"Might" Be Able To Play In Week 14
Hayden Hurst5 hours ago

Ruled Out, Tommy Tremble Doubtful For Week 13
Dalton Schultz5 hours ago

Not Expected To Play Against Broncos
De'Von Achane5 hours ago

To Play In Week 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5 hours ago

Lavonte David, Devin White Out For Buccaneers Defense
Chris Godwin5 hours ago

To Be A Game-Time Decision
Beneil Dariush6 hours ago

Arman Tsarukyan A Favorite Over Beneil Dariush At UFC Austin
Jack Eichel7 hours ago

Steers Vegas Back On Track
Beneil Dariush7 hours ago

Has A Dangerous Task In Front Of Him
Brayden Schenn7 hours ago

Leads Blues To Victory Thursday
Bobby Green7 hours ago

Looking For Third Win In A Row
Noah Dobson7 hours ago

Grabs Three Assists In Thursday's Win
Jalin Turner7 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Austin
Tyrese Haliburton7 hours ago

Notches Another Big-Time Performance
Jack Hughes7 hours ago

Adds Three More Points To His Tally
Dustin Stoltzfus7 hours ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Trae Young7 hours ago

Posts A 45-Point Double-Double
Tom Wilson7 hours ago

Celebrates First Career Hat Trick
Jalen Brunson7 hours ago

Drops 42 Points In Win Over Pistons
Punahele Soriano7 hours ago

Looking To Return To Win Column
Jonathan Isaac7 hours ago

Tagged As Questionable On Friday
Tristan Jarry7 hours ago

Caps Off Winning Performance With Historic Goal
Jose Alvarado7 hours ago

Questionable On Friday With Ankle Sprain
Kristaps Porzingis7 hours ago

Ruled Out Against 76ers
Nicolas Batum7 hours ago

Probable To Play Against Celtics
Xavier Tillman7 hours ago

Sr. Questionable To Return On Friday
Zach LaVine8 hours ago

Will Miss One Week With Foot Soreness
Mitchell Marner17 hours ago

Scores Hat Trick In Victory
Alex Lyon17 hours ago

Earns Third Consecutive Victory
Jeremy Swayman17 hours ago

Posts Shutout Against Sharks
Matt McLain20 hours ago

Fully Healed
Shohei Ohtani21 hours ago

Wins Most Outstanding Designated Hitter Award
Chris Paul21 hours ago

To Be Re-Evaluated On Monday
Aaron Gordon21 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
Jamal Murray21 hours ago

Uncertain For Friday
Zach Hyman24 hours ago

Ready To Return On Thursday
Juuso Valimaki24 hours ago

Back For Coyotes On Thursday
Ilya Mikheyev1 day ago

Good To Go Thursday
Dougie Hamilton1 day ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Radko Gudas1 day ago

On Track To Return Thursday
Andrei Svechnikov1 day ago

Expected Back On Thursday
Mark Kastelic1 day ago

Ridly Greig Placed On Long-Term IR By Senators
Dylan Cease1 day ago

Cardinals Interested In Dylan Cease
Joaquim Silva1 day ago

Looking To Return To The Win Column
Clay Guida1 day ago

Set For 36th UFC Fight
Kelvin Gastelum1 day ago

Returns To Welterweight
Tyler Glasnow1 day ago

Cubs Have Held Trade Talks On Tyler Glasnow
Sean Brady1 day ago

Looking To Rebound After First Career Loss
Deiveson Figueiredo1 day ago

Moving Up To Bantamweight
Rob Font1 day ago

Set For Third Fight Of 2023
Nick Martinez1 day ago

Agrees To Two-Year Deal With Reds
Jackson Chourio1 day ago

Brewers Expected To Complete Record-Breaking Deal
Joey Wendle2 days ago

Agrees With Mets
Devin Williams2 days ago

Wins NL Reliever Of The Year Award
Félix Bautista2 days ago

Felix Bautista Named AL Reliever Of The Year
Luis Severino2 days ago

Mets, Luis Severino Finalizing One-Year Deal
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Expected To Sign Before End Of Winter Meetings
Dylan Cease2 days ago

Trade Talks For Dylan Cease Have Intensified
Randy Arozarena2 days ago

Being Shopped By Rays
Bo Bichette2 days ago

Likely Staying Put
Emilio Pag√°n2 days ago

Emilio Pagan Agrees To Two-Year Pact With Reds
Dylan Cease3 days ago

Dodgers "Among Most Aggressive" Teams For Dylan Cease
Shohei Ohtani3 days ago

Yoshinobu Yamamoto "Above All Other Options" For Giants
Juan Soto3 days ago

"Almost Certain To Be Traded"
Cody Bellinger3 days ago

Earns NL Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Liam Hendriks3 days ago

Earns AL Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Jackson Chourio3 days ago

Brewers Discussing Deal With Top Prospect Jackson Chourio