RADIO
Fantasy football trade candidates to buy or sell for Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season. Jorden Hill lists overvalued and undervalued players to target or trade away.
For many RotoBallers, this week's article won't be useful for trade suggestions as deadlines have passed in most fantasy football leagues.
However, if you're in a league with a later trade deadline or without one at all, or if you're just interested in gaining some knowledge that can help set expectations for the rest of the season, I encourage you to read on!
Fantasy playoffs are only a few weeks away, so it's critical to make the necessary transactions and lineup adjustments to keep your squad in contention. The remaining schedule is more important now than ever, which is the main reason why there are some superstars included as trade candidates this week.
Featured Promo: Looking for some more fantasy football action? Adopt a dynasty orphan team over at FFPC. Sign up today and get $25 off any FFPC league. Sign Up Now!We'll discuss two players to acquire now and two players to get value for, if your league still allows it, of course. Before we get into it, let's take a quick look at what happened in Week 11.
Last Week's Recap
I advocated trading for Christian McCaffrey last week after he was out-touched by Elijah Mitchell in Week 10. On Monday night, Mitchell did handle more carries than McCaffrey, but almost all of them came in the second half with the 49ers leading by 14 or more. As expected, McCaffrey was again the primary target out of the backfield, tying Deebo Samuel for a team-high of seven receptions. In blowouts like this, we may see more of Mitchell, but McCaffrey is never going to hurt your lineup given his role in the offense.
This one hurts. I suggested trading for Rondale Moore after he finished as a fantasy WR2 or better in three straight contests. Of course, he was injured after his first touch in Week 11, losing six yards and leaving fantasy managers with -0.6 points. It only became more painful throughout the rest of the night as Greg Dortch excelled in Moore's place.
Greg Dortch played 66 (93%) snaps for the Arizona Cardinals offense. He led the Cards with 103 receiving yards on 9 catches.
— Bo Brack (@BoBrack) November 22, 2022
Hopefully, Moore will be able to suit up next week and prove his value as the starting slot receiver.
By far, my best call of the week was to capitalize on D'Onta Foreman's massive Week 10 performance before he faced two difficult opponents in back-to-back games. Foreman finished with just 24 rushing yards on 11 carries against the Ravens on Sunday, and I wouldn't anticipate much of an improvement this week when he squares off against the Denver Broncos.
My final recommendation was to trade away Allen Robinson following the unfortunate news of the Cooper Kupp injury. Robinson did manage 47 yards and a touchdown last week, but he was out-targeted by Tyler Higbee and tied in looks with Van Jefferson. With Matthew Stafford's health very much a concern as well, I'd continue to view Robinson as a touchdown-dependent flex option going forward, so you probably won't miss out on much if you traded him away.
Without further ado, let's move on to Week 12.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Antonio Gibson, Washington Commanders
From a narrative standpoint, the first three seasons of Antonio Gibson's career have been an absolute rollercoaster. His production would say otherwise, though.
You may be surprised to learn that Gibson is currently sitting as the RB15 in PPR scoring this season, and his best fantasy showings may still be ahead of him. Just a few weeks ago, it seemed that he was being phased out of the offense in favor of Brian Robinson, but Gibson out-carried the rookie in Week 11 while entirely usurping the role of injured third-down back J.D. McKissic.
Antonio Gibson usage among RBs Weeks 9-11 (per @PFF):
122-of-214 snaps
9 targets (10th)
43 rushing attempts (10th)
2 rushes inside the 5-yard line (12th)
34.8 fantasy points (17th)
0.29 fantasy points/snap (25th)JD McKissic will miss the rest of the season with a neck injury. pic.twitter.com/hBKVOFbe8P
— Underdog NFL (@Underdog__NFL) November 22, 2022
To be clear, Gibson has been utilized in the passing game all year, but his snap counts have gone up in recent weeks with McKissic out as Robinson remains uninvolved as a receiver. He'll have an excellent matchup this coming week against the Atlanta Falcons before facing the Giants in both Weeks 13 and 15, with a bye in between them. New York's defense has been decent against running backs this season, but just allowed 140 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to the Detroit Lions on Sunday.
It's unclear whether or not Gibson's 18 attempts in Week 11 are a sign of things to come, but it wouldn't be surprising given that Robinson has been quite inefficient on the ground. Even if the two backs continue to split the early-down workload, though, Gibson's usage as a receiver will keep him afloat as a steady RB2 for the rest of the season with McKissic on injured reserve.
Ja'Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
I've been patiently waiting to mention this name as a trade target for weeks now.
Ja'Marr Chase is finally expected to return to practice this week. It has not yet been confirmed if he will be active in Week 11, but he's an excellent trade-for candidate right now regardless.
Chase was on a tear in Weeks 6 and 7 before injuring his hip, finishing as the fantasy WR1 in both contests in all scoring formats. This is the same man that posted arguably the best rookie wide receiver season of all time in 2021. You shouldn't need me to convince you of his talent.
What might persuade you to trade for him, though, is his stellar rest-of-season schedule. Based on half-PPR points allowed, the Bengals possess the fifth-easiest schedule for wide receivers through the end of the fantasy playoffs. In addition, Cincinnati's offense did not even really begin to click until Week 6. It hasn't lost a step with Chase inactive and may still be trending upwards.
The Bengals offense has a ridiculously high ceiling.
They scored the 2nd most points against the Steelers defense this season (37) and the most points allowed with TJ Watt healthy.
Meanwhile, they did it without Ja’Marr Chase and with Joe Mixon concussed for much of the game.
— Willie Lutz (@willie_lutz) November 21, 2022
To put it simply, fantasy managers should want pieces of this offense carrying them to a championship. Your best opportunity to trade for Chase at a slight discount is now, before he could be officially activated for this week. Obviously, this only applies to those with a playoff spot clinched, but if you're a top seed while the Chase manager in your league is fighting to make it in, send them a package deal that can guarantee them immediate points.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
There haven't been many quarterbacks mentioned this season as the position is probably the least-traded in most leagues. But sometimes, it's important to make a change.
Tua Tagovailoa has exceeded all expectations for fantasy purposes in 2022. Currently the QB7 in fantasy points per game, Tagovailoa had three straight top-five showings before his Week 11 bye. Lest we forget his monstrous Week 2 performance in which he racked up 469 passing yards and six touchdowns. It's hard not to be impressed by what the third-year signal-caller is doing, and he's certainly proven his worth as the Dolphins' franchise QB.
Passer rating leaders
Tua Tagovailoa 118.4
Geno Smith 108
Patrick Mahomes 107.3
Jalen Hurts 106.5 pic.twitter.com/5XCJUVFsWl— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) November 22, 2022
Diving deeper, though, four of Tagovailoa's five top-12 finishes came against defenses ranking in the top half of easiest quarterback matchups in the league. He struggled against difficult opponents in the Patriots in Week 1 and the Bills in Week 3.
Sure, Miami has the offensive firepower to continue putting up over 25 points per game, but the schedule from here on out is brutal. Tagovailoa will face four of the 10 most difficult quarterback matchups before again taking on the Patriots in Week 17, which happens to be the fantasy championship in most leagues.
Again, Tagovailoa has the weapons at his disposal to get the job done, and you could definitely do worse at the position. It just seems unlikely that his dominant stretch will persist given he has one of the most difficult remaining schedules imaginable. Quarterback trade value varies league-to-league, but if you can find an adequate replacement on waivers, I like the idea of adding Tua to a position player for an upgrade at RB or WR.
Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Let's continue the theme of trading away highly productive players on winning teams, shall we?
Saquon Barkley has enjoyed an exceptional return to form this season after being hampered by injury for the last two. He's currently a top-six fantasy running back in all formats. Similarly to Tagovailoa, I suggest capitalizing on Barkley's value now before his schedule becomes increasingly difficult.
The Giants have four consecutive divisional bouts starting in Week 12, and all are against formidable opponents.
They'll first go to Dallas to take on the Cowboys, who have allowed just two top-12 PPR running back performances all season (yes, one was Barkley in Week 3). Next will be the Commanders, who boast the fourth-most difficult defense for running backs this year and limited Dameon Pierce to 10 carries for eight yards last week. Jordan Davis could rejoin the Philadelphia front seven for a Week 14 contest before the Giants again take on Washington in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
Despite mostly positive fantasy output, Barkley hasn't been as effective in recent weeks as he was to start the season.
Saquon Barkley's workload may be catching up to him.
Check out his splits - first and second five games of his 2022⬇️
Avoided tackle rate
23% - 1st 5 games
12% - 2nd 5 gamesExplosive rush (10+) rate
13.4% - 1st 5
8.6% - 2nd 5Rushing EPA/Snap
-2.2 - 1st 5
-12.6 - 2nd 5— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) November 22, 2022
It doesn't help that Barkley is facing a ton of stacked boxes with the Giants' receivers being unhealthy and unproven. With standout rookie Wan'Dale Robinson now out for the season, the team will likely lean on the run even more, and defenses know it.
Barkley is still going to get a lot of volume and could break off some big plays as he often does. I wouldn't recommend trading him for pennies on the dollar, but if you can manage to flip Barkley into Derrick Henry, who has a juicy remaining schedule, I think you'll be better off.
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