RADIO
Rob explains why Aaron Jones is one of the best fantasy football values and sleepers at running back for the 2024 season. He takes an in-depth look at the Vikings' backfield.
Fantasy football managers are likely hesitant to draft Aaron Jones this season. He's 29 years old -- he'll turn 30 in December of this year -- and he's coming off a season where he missed six games. Jones failed to record a 35% snap share in three other contests and was completely useless for fantasy football purposes in those games. On top of that, the Green Bay Packers released him, and he ended up signing with the Minnesota Vikings, who watched Kirk Cousins sign with the Atlanta Falcons in free agency. That move clears the way for either Sam Darnold or rookie J.J. McCarthy to start as the quarterback for Minnesota. There's no denying it was a rough 2023 season and a bumpy 2024 offseason, and yet, you should draft him!
This article will discuss Jones' role as a player, his past as a fantasy producer, and the volume he and fantasy managers can expect this season. We'll also examine how head coach Kevin O'Connell has utilized his running backs and discuss Jones' 2024 season. While last season has likely left a sour taste in people's mouths, Jones is in a good position to pay off at his current ADP. The injury concerns are legit, but we'll look at his history to dispel or, at the very least, alleviate some of those concerns. By the end of this article, you'll see Jones as a quality target at his current price tag.
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Aaron Jones is Injury-Prone... or Not
It's amazing how quickly a player can earn the term "injury-prone." It's equally amazing how one injury-plagued season can alter historical reality. Yes, Jones missed six games last season. Yes, Jones played fewer than 35% of the snaps in three others, crushing fantasy managers' matchups for those who started him in those weeks. That is all true. There's no disputing it; it's just the facts.
Since we're talking about facts, though, let's talk about 2022, when Jones played all 17 games and finished with 272 touches and over 1,500 scrimmage yards. Not to mention his two playoff games last season, where he racked up 247 total yards and three touchdowns on 43 carries. But he's injury-prone, right? Surely, another season must depict that notion similarly to 2023, right? It certainly wasn't 2022, what about 2021?
Jones played 15 games in 2021, missing two. One was Week 18, a meaningless game for the Packers, and one in which Jordan Love, a backup at the time, played the entire second half. In the Packers' first playoff game that season, Jones had 21 touches and 170 yards against a stout 49ers defense. 2021 doesn't fit the injury-prone narrative here, but what about 2020? Not exactly. He missed two games in the middle of the season but was otherwise healthy. He finished with 248 touches and just shy of 1,500 scrimmage yards. He also scored 11 touchdowns. Jones played all 16 games in 2019 and finished with 285 touches, 1,558 scrimmage yards, and 19 touchdowns.
Another @Showtyme_33 TD in primetime ⭐️
📺: #GBvsSF on NBC
📱: https://t.co/KgHDqDkg0d pic.twitter.com/CcU2w3fX0z— NFL (@NFL) September 27, 2021
From 2019-2022, he averaged 15.5 games played (remember 2019 and 2020 only had 16-game seasons), 205 carries, 1,027 rushing yards, eight rushing touchdowns, 67 targets, 52 receptions, 404 receiving yards, and four touchdowns. Let's repeat: for four years straight, he averaged 15.5 games, 257 touches, 1,431 scrimmage yards, and 12 total touchdowns. Interestingly enough, from 2019-2022, among running backs with at least 400 rushing attempts, Jones played in the second-most games in the NFL.
Aaron Jones is Old and Washed... or Not
Look, I get it -- a running back gets to be 29-30 years old, and the belief immediately becomes he's not good anymore. However, some are the exception to that rule. Elite players are the exception to that rule. Make no mistake; Jones is elite and has been for some time. The only reason Jones isn't often spoken of with the other elite running backs in the NFL is because Matt LaFleur has never given him high touch totals. Don't believe me? Well, let's go to the numbers because numbers don't lie.
| Year | Opportunity Share | Touches | YPC | Rush Success % | YAC/Attempt | Attempt per Broken Tackle | Evaded Tackles | Breakaway Run Rate | Yards per Touch | Yards Created per Touch | YPR | YPRR | EPA | Half-PPR PPG |
| 2023 | 57.3% (24th) | 172 (37th) | 4.6 (8th) | 62.0% (1st) | 2.2 (6th) | 12.9 (16th) | 31 (37th) | 3.5 (38th) | 5.2 (14th) | 3.76 (15th) | 7.8 (13th) | 1.85 (2nd) | +4.1 (18th) | 10.3 (29th) |
| 2022 | 57.5% (21st) | 272 (13th) | 5.3 (1st) | 54.9% (7th) | 2.2 (6th) | 16.4 (12th) | 80 (9th) | 6.6% (15th) | 5.6 (12th) | 3.28 (10th) | 6.7 (22nd) | 1.50 (12th) | +3.3 (29th) | 13.3 (12th) |
| 2021 | 52.7% (25th) | 223 (20th) | 4.7 (3rd) | 49.7& (15th) | 2.3 (4th) | 14.3 (16th) | 61 (16th) | 4.7% (17th) | 5.3 (11th) | 3.35 (9th) | 7.5 (14th) | 1.53 (15th) | +9.0 (16th) | 13.5 (15th) |
| 2020 | 60.6% (18th) | 248 (10th) | 5.5 (2nd) | 55.7% (2nd) | 2.9 (2nd) | 14.4 (9th) | 55 (14th) | 4.0% (24th) | 5.9 (5th) | 2.99 (13th) | 7.6 (18th) | 1.47 (11th) | +28.5 (2nd) | 16.8 (4th) |
| 2019 | 62.2% (18th) | 285 (10th) | 4.6 (9th) | 54.2% (3rd) | 2.2 (15th) | 7.4 (2nd) | 86 (4th) | 3.4% (32nd) | 5.5 (10th) | 1.76 (8th) | 9.7 (7th) | 2.34 (12th) | +16.2 (12th) | 18.3 (3rd) |
Ladies and gentlemen, those numbers are elite. Over the past five seasons, 72 running backs have had at least 300 carries. Jones is fifth in yards per carry (4.9), fifth in rush success rate (55.0%), sixth in yards after contact per attempt (2.4), and 11th in attempts per broken tackle (11.7). In five straight seasons, Jones has been in the top 16 in yards per carry, rush success rate, yards after contact per attempt, attempts per broken tackle, yards per touch, yards created per touch, and yards per route run. This past season was Jones' first year finishing outside the top 15 in half-PPR PPG.
If you look at the table above and focus on his half-PPR PPG, it's important to note A.J. Dillon's negative impact on Jones' touchdown equity. In 2021, Dillon had 21 attempts inside the 10-yard line and 10 inside the 5-yard line compared to Jones, who had 15 and six, respectively. In 2022, the discrepancy got even wider. Dillon had 17 attempts inside the 10-yard line and 10 inside the 5-yard line. Jones had nine and two, respectively.
That change didn't happen because Jones wasn't good in those situations -- he scored 16 and nine rushing touchdowns in 2019 and 2020, respectively. Rather, that change largely happened due to Dillon's almost 250-pound frame.
Most top-5 finishes in differential between PPR/G and Weighted Opportunity/Game
[since 2018]1A. Christian McCaffrey (4 seasons)
1B. Derrick Henry (4 seasons)
...
2A. Nick Chubb (2 seasons)
2B. Austin Ekeler (2 seasons)
2C. Aaron Jones (2 seasons)Nobody else has multiple.
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) May 18, 2024
Jones has been one of the best running backs since LaFleur came to Green Bay. Look at where he finished compared to other running backs in his opportunity share and touches compared to his final half-PPR PPG. Jones has consistently outperformed the number of touches he's been given every season from 2019-2022.
It's also important to remember that while he did struggle with injuries in 2023, Jones finished the season on an absolute tear. He missed Weeks 12-14 but was virtually unstoppable from Week 15 through the NFC Divisional Round. In those six games, Jones had 93 carries and 526 yards. He also had 15 targets, 10 receptions, and 55 receiving yards. He scored three total touchdowns. His per-game averages in his final six games of the season would equate to 264 carries, 1,490 rushing yards, 43 targets, 28 receptions, and 8.5 total touchdowns. He averaged a ridiculous 5.6 yards per carry during that stretch. He recorded five straight 100+ rushing yard performances starting in Week 16.
Aaron Jones' New Stomping Grounds - The Good and the Bad
While most fantasy managers are likely focused on all the negatives associated with his team's change, there are also many positives. Let's start with the negatives. Yes, the quarterback situation in Minnesota is a concern. Sam Darnold is not good, and J.J. McCarthy is a rookie. There's no sugarcoating this one. The downgrade from Jordan Love to whoever the Vikings start is significant. However, from Weeks 9-18 last season, the Vikings managed to score 24+ points four times and scored 20 or more six times, and they missed Justin Jefferson and T.J. Hockenson for a few of those games.
During those nine games, the Vikings offense averaged just over 342 yards per game. Over 17 games, they would've had over 5,821 yards of offense. That would've ranked 12th last year, just ahead of the Houston Texans and behind the Green Bay Packers. The problem was they couldn't finish drives, and there were far too many turnovers. Darnold won't help with either problem, but McCarthy might. Quite honestly, that's just about where the negatives end. To be fair, quarterback play is a big one. Now, let's get to the positives.
Both offensive lines are excellent. In PFF's final 2023 offensive line rankings, the Packers finished 11th and the Vikings finished 12th. Both units are expected to flirt with being a top-10 unit again this season. The Vikings have two bookend tackles in Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill.
However, the biggest and most significant positive is how head coach Kevin O'Connell has deployed his backfield. Last season, Alexander Mattison was the Vikings' No. 1 running back, and in the first 12 games of the season, he played 45% of the snaps or more in every game. He failed to do that in the final five games. However, in the first 12 games, Mattison was on pace for 224 carries, 40 targets, and 27 receptions. Mattison had the eighth-highest expected half-PPR total in those first 12 weeks of the season. The problem for him and fantasy managers was that he was bad. Awful, really. Mattison had the worst differential between his actual and expected fantasy points at -48.0.
That volume and workload should be considered great for Jones, though! In 2022, when Dalvin Cook was still a Viking, he finished as the RB11 with a 13.4 half-PPR PPG. He had an expected half-PPR PPG average of 13.7, the eighth highest among running backs. Cook finished with 264 carries, 56 targets, and 39 receptions. These two seasons, O'Connell's only two with Minnesota, should give fantasy managers a fairly good baseline of what to expect from Jones.
At the minimum, we should expect a Mattison-like workload, with Jones finishing with around 250 touches. Jones could have as many as 300 touches with a Cook-like workload, which should be considered his ceiling outcome. Considering Jones is a far superior player to Mattison, fantasy managers should expect around 275 touches. Based on his yards-per-touch totals from the table average, even if we take his worst outcome from the last five years, he'd still finish with 1,430 scrimmage yards.
Jones has a much better chance of dominating snaps and touches in Minnesota than he did in Green Bay. LaFleur has always been committed to a running-back-by-committee approach, which is why AJ Dillon continued to get so much work. Kevin O'Connell hasn't. He leaned on Cook in 2022 in a big way and utilized him as their full-time workhorse. That's a major positive for Jones' fantasy potential. The other is touchdowns. Over the past three years, because of LaFleur's desire to use Dillon near the goal line, Jones has had just eight rushing touchdowns in the past three seasons. With only Ty Chandler behind him on the depth chart in Minnesota, there's no way Jones will be ceding many, if any, scoring opportunities in 2024.
It's reasonable for fantasy managers to expect Jones to score 8-12 touchdowns this season, a notion that was unrealistic the past three seasons in Green Bay due to Dillon's presence. Many might say, "Well, he did score 10 in 2021!" He did. Off of six receiving touchdowns on 65 targets. He had a touchdown rate of 9.2%. During Davante Adams' best seasons in Green Bay, 2016-2021, he had an 8.1% touchdown rate. Like I said, unrealistic.
Aaron Jones' Fantasy Football ADP
Jones is currently being drafted as the RB18, which isn't an egregious ranking by any means, but it's one fantasy managers should target him at. Jones could very well finish in the RB12-16 range. The Vikings are expected to be without tight end T.J. Hockenson for the first 6-10 weeks of the 2024 season, and his absence could mean even more involvement for Jones in the passing game.
After Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, the Vikings do not have a dependable pass-catcher, and Jones could very well become either quarterback's primary and preferred safety valve. That would be a major boon to his fantasy value, and fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if that's exactly what happens. Jones is an excellent pass-catcher, and Jefferson and Addison are best deployed as downfield weapons, which could open up Jones underneath.
Another potential positive development for Jones would be McCarthy being better than he's currently being credited for. As a rookie, it's hard to know what to expect from him, but McCarthy may be good. Maybe even really good. If that happens to be the case, Jones' fantasy value would receive another boost due to an overall increase in the team's offensive efficiency and scoring opportunities.
Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if Jones outscored Alvin Kamara, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker, or James Cook. I'm not saying he'll outscore all of them, but could he outscore 2-3? Absolutely! However, all of them are being drafted ahead of Jones right now. That gives Jones plenty of room to provide fantasy managers with a positive return on their investment.
AARON JONES' THIRD TOUCHDOWN.
📺: #GBvsDAL on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Ut3BRhC2CE pic.twitter.com/5ud5g9XHq2— NFL (@NFL) January 14, 2024
Remember, Jones could very well be in line for the most carries, targets, receptions, and goal-line opportunities that he's had in the past three years. Outside of last year, Jones finished as the RB12 and RB15 in 2022 and 2021, respectively. He's a buy this fantasy season.
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