Matt Shoemaker (SP, TOR) - Week 2 Waiver Wire Pickups

July 28, 2020

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Matt Shoemaker thrived in his first start of 2020 Saturday, following a recovery from an ACL tear in April 2019. The ground-ball pitcher could provide sneaky value as a streamer in most fantasy leagues but as a possible rebound candidate in deeper games.

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ROSTERED IN: 17% of leagues

ANALYSIS: The secret of Matt Shoemaker's 2020 potential may already be out after the Toronto Blue Jay's tidy one-run, three-hit outing across six innings Saturday (two walks, four strikeouts) at the Tampa Bay Rays.

He departed the assignment with the game tied, but Toronto's bullpen wilted and eventually lost the contest. Still, this marked an inspired return for the right-hander, who was working regular-season action for the first time since he tore his ACL last April.

When his 2019 campaign abruptly ended, Shoemaker boasted a dazzling 1.57 ERA in five starts (28.2 innings). (After his opening 2020 effort, he's now given up just six earned runs in six starts with Toronto.) While that ERA from last year was ripe for a negative correction, it called back to previous seasons in which ugly ERAs (4.64 from 2017-2018) masked upside (8.5 K/9, including 9.6 in a seven-start 2018).

The 33-year-old works with softer velocity than most pitchers; his four-seamer averaged 90.9 mph last season. However, he can thrive if his best options -- his sinker and split-finger fastball -- dance: One of his biggest developments from 2019 was how he increased the whiff rate of his sinker, from 22.06 percent in 2018 to 27.34:

The steady veteran deserves immediate consideration for favorable streamer matchups for shallower games. Caution, though: The AL/NL East interleague bubble has plenty of tough opponents, and the Blue Jays' temporary Buffalo home of Sahlen Field generally leaned hitter-friendly in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League.

Even with those possible hurdles, if he can pitch to his recent grounder-first approach (51.4% in 2019), he will more consistently prove useful in deeper mixed leagues, where 80-90 starting pitchers often inhabit lineups across all teams.

If Shoemaker gives off similarly efficient vibes to his 2020 debut next time around, scoop him up in shallower fantasy games.