RADIO
Jarod's late-round fantasy baseball sleepers, values, draft targets for batting average (AVG) in 2025. These are upside hitters for AVG as category boosters.
Most hitters will experience downturns throughout the season, but they typically make an adjustment that will help pull them out of the slump. Because the season is so long, we as fantasy managers need to exhibit patience to not give up on a player too soon and miss out on their resurgence.
However, sometimes the slump is prolonged, and while other players on your squad might get hot and help even it out, in some cases, the downturn is so severe that it dulls production in multiple categories for too long. Before you know it, you've faded too far behind your league mates to make up ground. Being nimble and knowing when to bench or cut bait is also key to our success.
But if you don't want to worry about that, the players outlined below will provide managers with a sustainable level of performance throughout the season, specifically batting average in this case, so as to avoid the crushing troughs that can sabotage a season.
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"Set It And Forget It" Criteria
In this exercise, I've used three different buckets of data to look at the players' 2024 stats so as to leave no stone unturned:
- Monthly Splits: five out of six months hit .250 or better
- Rolling Stretches: most 125-game spans hitting .270 or better
- 50-Game Spans: zero 50-game stretches hitting less than .250
Some players fall into multiple buckets. Also, I've provided some names to look out for at the bottom that had extended slumps in 2024. This article is not a target/avoid list; rather, it is information that will help you decide between Player A and Player B come draft day.
Yainer Diaz, C, Houston Astros
ADP: 55
Yainer Diaz walloped 23 home runs in only 104 games in 2023, so managers who drafted him in 2024 were surely disappointed after he sent just 16 balls over the fence in 148 games. However, they were rewarded with 84 RBI and 70 runs scored, both tied for fourth-most by a catcher.
Where Diaz lacked in expected power output, he excelled in batting average, hitting .299 on the year and leading all backstops in that category. The reason he is highlighted here in this article, though, is that not only did he hit well overall, the Dominican maintained a level of consistency throughout the season.
Diaz hit .287 or better every month of the season except one (May, .200). If you were to remove May from the equation, he hit .316 during the other months. With that type of consistency while hitting in the middle of the Astros' lineup, the counting stats piled up.
Given a big drop in FB% and Barrel%, a return to 20-plus home runs may not be in the cards for 2025, but with a solid contact rate (77.6 percent) and a lower-than-average strikeout rate (17.3 percent), he figures to provide a high batting average floor with the other stats to follow.
YAINER DIAZ WALK OFF pic.twitter.com/ZP0wvShxOY
— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) August 20, 2024
The right-handed hitter is a bit pricey in drafts, being taken as the second catcher off the board with an ADP of 55, but he checks off several boxes at a position that is offensively challenged historically, so he can provide managers with a distinct advantage. The 26-year-old is eligible at 1B on Yahoo as well, adding some flexibility to his fantasy profile.
If you're looking for value, you won't find it at that ADP, but if he falls in your draft for some reason, then there are plenty of reasons to scoop him up.
Seiya Suzuki, OF/DH, Chicago Cubs
ADP: 84
Seiya Suzuki may be tough to watch in the field, but that doesn't matter to us in fantasy. We want offensive production, and that's precisely where Suzuki excels as a ballplayer.
Like the aforementioned Diaz, Suzuki had just one month where he hit below the league average of .243 (May, .219), and that was the same month he returned from an oblique injury, so perhaps there was a little rust that needed to be knocked off.
May notwithstanding, the former NPB slugger hit .294 over the other months, providing managers with a consistent batting average floor. Not only that, the right-handed hitter contributed across every other relevant fantasy category as well, providing HR, RBI, R, and SB production.
2️⃣ AB = 2️⃣ HR
Seiya Suzuki goes yard again! pic.twitter.com/ZTcUXiDp3G
— MLB (@MLB) August 24, 2024
Manager Craig Counsell has stated that Suzuki would DH "a lot" this season, which presumably means more than he did last season when he split time between DH (59 G) and OF (73).
That being the case, there should be less wear on his body, which should increase his potential to stay on the field more after not having played in more than 138 games during his three years stateside.
The 30-year-old is going off the board in fantasy drafts a couple of rounds after Diaz, but one could make the argument that Suzuki is the more valuable fantasy asset. With 16 steals last season, he established himself as a five-category contributor with a chance for a 20/20 campaign in 2025.
Bryan Reynolds, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 91
Bryan Reynolds did not fall into the first bucket of players who hit above league average five out of six months, although he did do it in four out of five, but outside of names like Bobby Witt Jr., Shohei Ohtani, and Aaron Judge, Reynolds was near the top in most 125-game periods hitting above .270.
The switch-hitter had 32 such periods in 2024, leading to a career-high 171 hits and a .275 AVG, 24 HR, 88 RBI, 73 R, and 10 SB in the season.
Last year was the third time in the last four years that the 2x All-Star hit exactly 24 home runs, so you could say he's the epitome of consistency.
Bryan Reynolds is SCORCHING in June.
He has a 20-game hitting streak and 3 homers in his last 4 games. 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ZgbYn2WYiD
— MLB (@MLB) June 23, 2024
The 30-year-old is going to steal fewer bases than the aforementioned Suzuki and hits in a less potent lineup, so he's going about a round later, which is appropriate, but if you're looking for a "set it and forget it" player, then look no further than the reliable Reynolds.
Although he seems boring, note that he is a career .340 hitter during the month of June, hitting no better than .280 during any other month, so while he won't crush your average at any point, he may also help your squad dominate when the weather turns warm.
Yandy Diaz, 1B, Tampa Bay Rays
ADP: 200
Yandy Diaz checks both of the above boxes: five out of six months hitting .250 or better, plus 20 125-game periods hitting .270 or better.
In fact, over the last three seasons combined, he's had just two months out of 18 where he hit below league average. The Cuban won the American League batting title in 2023 and did not have a single month during that season in which he hit below .300.
Where he isn't consistent is the power output, having totaled 13-9-22-14 home runs in the last four seasons despite playing in basically the same amount of games each year.
Last season, at 32 years old, he recorded the highest contact rate of his career (87.6 percent), so there doesn't appear to be any age-related decline yet.
So, if you want a player late in drafts that can hit for consistent average with a chance to reach the 20-homer plateau, why not take a swing at a guy whose Baseball Savant power profile is covered in red:
Jake McCarthy, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP: 224
In 2024, Jake McCarthy earned the most playing time he's had in his career to this point by putting the bat on the ball for most of the season.
Sure, some injuries helped pave the way, but even if that were not the case, Arizona could not have let him continue to play sporadically as he had been early in the season with how he was impacting the game.
By the end of June, the left-handed hitter was hitting .278 and had an OBP of .366, along with 12 stolen bases. Then, in late July, he went 5-for-5 in a game that was the beginning of a blazing stretch.
The former 39th-overall draft pick slashed .352/.397/.544 from that game through the end of August as a full-time player, including five home runs and seven stolen bases.
Jake McCarthy is now 18-for-39 in his last 12 games.
pic.twitter.com/uKQfcCmZAC— PHNX Diamondbacks (@PHNX_Dbacks) August 9, 2024
The one month of the season that he hit below league average was September (when fantasy managers needed him most, unfortunately) when he batted .234; however, he was still able to provide five stolen bases that month. The final line was .285-8-56-66-25 with a .329 wOBA and 110 wRC+.
Although the batting average dipped in September, we're discussing McCarthy here because he was one of a handful of hitters who played at least 100 games and hit no worse than .250 in any 50-game span. So, while he may have seen a dip, it was not prolonged. The 27-year-old also falls into the "five-out-six" category of hitters.
He's projected for a full workload in 2025, and after lowering his K% to 15.8 percent last season on the back of an 83.4 percent Contact%, he figures to post a solid average again. Not only that, but last season marked the third consecutive season with at least 23 stolen bases, so expect similar results in 2025.
Xavier Edwards, SS, Miami Marlins
ADP: 150
Xavier Edwards is more of an honorable mention since there is less of a track record to go off of, but after being called up full-time last July, Edwards hit no worse than .290 in any one month the rest of the season.
Like McCarthy, he too had no 50-game stretch batting less than .250, although he only played in 70 games. But guess what? He was a .313 career hitter in the minors in 1781 at-bats. His 30-game MLB debut in 2023? The switch-hitter batted .295. The kid can hit.
Xavier Edwards is a solid target in drafts if you have enough power elsewhere.
- Contact skills and approach should lead to a good AVG/OBP
- Should leadoff for MIA with 80+ R upside
- 31 SB in 303 PA in 2024, maybe 40+ in 2025?#FantasyBaseball pic.twitter.com/KzanO2P6Q9— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) December 6, 2024
He does not provide any pop, with just one career MLB home run to his name, but what he lacks in power, he provides in speed. The former 38th-overall draft pick stole 31 bags in the majors last season in less than half of a season's worth of games.
If the 25-year-old can post another campaign with a 10.9 percent walk rate and an OBP even remotely close to the .397 he recorded last year, then look out, you might have the league's stolen base leader getting drafted somewhere after the 12th round in 12-team leagues!
Dishonorable Mentions
Notable players who had 50-game stretches in 2024 of hitting less than .175, with varying degrees of categorical contributions:
If you nab one of these guys from this table in your drafts, you may want to ascertain the services of one of the more reliable players outlined above or one of them that are outlined in Andy Smith's Fantasy Baseball Batting AVG Specialists article.
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