RADIO
We only have one game on Thursday night, and it’s a showdown between Navy and Memphis. We’re looking at a 56 over/under with Memphis being a 10.5 point favorite. The star of the show, Patrick Taylor, has already been ruled out for Memphis. It’s the third game in a row he’s out, so we at least know what to do. Let’s dive into this game and figure out what to do with this showdown!
Once again, FanDuel and DraftKings are taking a very different approach to college football. I'll be following a DraftKings baseline as it it a lot simpler, but I will try my best to include FD plays as well. If you can't find enough value, feel free to reach out on Twitter @VarneyDFS. I will be around all day to answer questions.
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FanDuel, DraftKings DFS Captain
Kenneth Gainwell - Memphis - DK $10,800 FD $14,500
With Patrick Taylor Jr. out and Memphis a comfortable favorite, it’ll once again be Kenneth Gainwell that Memphis leans on. He’s been dominant on the ground with Taylor out the last two weeks, totaling 230 yards and three scores on the ground. He’s joined into the passing game as well, catching six balls for 47 yards and another score. Navy hasn’t been tested much on defense, so it remains to be seen where their strengths and weaknesses lie. They weren’t a very strong defense last season and Memphis has an implied total well into the 30’s. If you think Memphis wins this game, Kenneth Gainwell is your best bet at captain.
Malcolm Perry - Navy - DK $12,300 FD $16,000
Memphis is a 10.5 point favorite, but this is college football and anything can happen. Malcolm Perry has been phenomenal on the young season, throwing for more yards in just two games than he did in all of 2018. He’s also run for 185 yards and five scores. Navy relies on Perry like crazy in the red zone, and he has a ton of touchdown upside if Navy can get ahead early. I personally think there’s a much higher chance Memphis grabs the lead, but a 10 point spread is too low to completely fade Perry in the captain spot. At the very least, he’ll be rostered in a utility spot in every one of my lineups. He really is the heart and soul of this Navy team.
FanDuel, DraftKings DFS Safe Plays
Brady White - Memphis - DK $8,800 FD $14,000
With Patrick Taylor Jr. out of the mix and Kenneth Gainwell affordable, you don’t have to worry about money all that much. Brady White hasn’t flashed much upside, but he’s been exactly what Memphis has needed. He’s completing 70% of his passes and has thrown five touchdowns in the last two games to just one interception that wasn’t really his fault. You can expect at least 200 yards and two scores here. With Gainwell and White both on your squad, there’s a good shot you have 100% of the Memphis touchdowns.
Nelson Smith - Navy - DK $5,200 FD $10,000
He certainly isn’t priced like it, but Nelson Smith has been the RB1 for Navy this season. At least carry wise. He’s seen 15 and 14 carries through the first two games, turning in 148 yards and three scores. He’s the fullback, but that doesn’t mean much in the wishbone offense. The FB is actually in quite a good spot to score in the wishbone offense against most defenses. Assuming Smith sees 10+ carries once again, it’ll be hard for him to fall short of value.
Kylan Watkins - Memphis - DK $6,400 FD $11,000
If Memphis has the lead like Vegas is expecting, Kylan Watkins is going to get another healthy load of carries. He’s seen double digit carries in back to back games and he’ll be complimenting Gainwell once again. Memphis really does have an endless supply of running backs, as Watkins is a good pass-catcher out of the backfield as well. If Memphis thinks Patrick Taylor is going to miss a few more weeks, I could definitely see them splitting the carries a bit here and Watkins could surely vulture a TD.
Riley Patterson - Memphis - DK $4,000
You can do worse than Riley Patterson in your last spot. If we think Memphis scores 30+ points, Patterson could very easily kick two or three field goals and three extra points. That’s 10-12 points and even more if any are 40+. I do think you can do better on the cheap end in tournaments, but in cash, I don’t mind plugging the kicker in there as a glue guy.
DraftKings DFS Contrarian Plays
C.J. Williams - Navy - DK $9,400 FD $9,000
With Navy a slight underdog, this may set up perfectly for C.J. Williams. He’s listed as a running back, but he’s really a wide receiver / utility man that they utilize in a multitude of ways. He’s the best athlete on Navy and the upside is huge. If Navy does fall behind, we may see them pass a lot more than we’re used to. Malcolm Perry has already shown that he’s improved a ton as a passer and Williams is far and away the number one. He’ll also be heavily involved in the running game, and could see a few end arounds. Williams and Gainwell have the highest ceilings on this slate, but you’ll have to pay up if you want Williams and the floor is not very high.
Damonte Coxie - Memphis - DK $7,800 FD $10,500
Coxie is the number one receiver on this offense and Brady White looks his way a ton. Memphis has only been challenged in one game this year, and Coxie caught six passes and saw 10 targets. The only real issue here is that he’s priced up and we love the Memphis running game. If you play Coxie, you almost have to choose between Williams and White to pair with Perry. It’s tough to get all three with Gainwell in the CPT spot.
Joey Magnifico - Memphis - DK $3,600 FD $9,000
You probably don’t have to go this cheap with Patrick Taylor out, but you may need to if you want to play C.J. Williams and a bunch of other pricey guys. Magnifico is a senior tight end that is a big part of this offense, in every aspect. He’s a phenomenal blocker, but runs as many routes as most of the Memphis wideouts. He’s already caught four balls through just two games and I can see him being leaned on all year long when the going gets tough. He’s a big target and Brady White isn’t the most comfortable in the planet throwing outside the hash marks. Magnifico is a great play for the price.
