RADIO
Welcome back to “The Kick-Off” and welcome to 2023! As the season dwindles down, many clubs will be focused on any trophies left at stake, Champions League, Europa League, FA Cup, etc and it will cause squad rotation and or rest. The Starting XI will remain fluid for those specific clubs, while others may try new formations as their league positions cement for next season.
The top two favorites this weekend are Arsenal -350 vs Leeds United and Brighton & Hove Albion -155 vs Brentford. I will guide you through this five-match slate starting at 10:00 A.M. EST.
If you have any questions on today's slate, bankroll management, GPP strategy, Cash game strategy, or anything else, don’t hesitate to email me at [email protected] or via Twitter @df_solutions or on “SLACK”.
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The Kick-Off - EPL Matchweek 29
Goalies
Keylor Navas- DK $4.3K || FD $10
Opponent - Wolverhampton
When someone thinks of a good defensive club with solid goaltending, Nottingham Forest and Keylor Navas are the furthest things from it. However, they find themselves in a rather intriguing matchup in the return to domestic play. In Wolverhampton’s final match before the International Break, they lost 4-2 to struggling Leads United at home – one of their worst losses this season –. Furthermore, in Wolverhampton’s last five away matches, they have been outscored 4 to 9 and over the season while playing away they have been outscored 10 to 22. Not only does Navas have a legitimate chance to get a clean sheet, but he also has a shot at a possible win too. Do not forget though, that he comes with his own warning label, conceding 12 goals in his last five appearances.
Others To Consider (Cash/GPP): Ramsdale (DK $5.9K || FD $14), Neto (DK $4.9K || FD $9)
Forwards
Wilfried Zaha-DK $6.3K || FD $16
Opponent - Leicester City
Whether Zaha starts out at wing or as more of a central striker, his salary is an absolute steal. Leicester is the third worst club in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.59 –. At the other end of the pitch, former Palace manager, Roy Hodgson made his return to the club after Patrick Viera was sacked before International Break. With his return, he will be looking to play his players in what he thinks is their best positions. Hodgson and Zaha already have a relationship and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Zaha play as a central striker in this match. Over Zaha’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 10 shots, 4 created chances, 5 crosses, 2 tackles and 5 interceptions. He does not have a single point in that time frame, but he is not holding back either. It is only a matter of time until the ball falls into the net and against the Foxes who are being outscored 5 to 9 in their last five away fixtures, anything is possible.
Bukayo Saka- DK $11.5K || FD $23
Opponent - Leeds United
Despite Saka playing more as a midfielder, we will highlight him in the forward section because of Trossard’s midfield-only tag on DraftKings. Saka continues to be the dominant force for the Gunners, producing 2 goals, 1 assist, 9 shots, 9 created chances, 28 crosses, 14 corners and 9 tackles in five fixtures in domestic play – 4 starts –. Leeds is not the worst club defensively, although they are the second-worst in Big Chances Created Against Per 90 – 2.25 – and the fourth-worst in Goals Against Per 90 – 1.55 –. After crashing out of the Europa League, Arsenal’s sole focus will be on winning the Premier League – something they have not won since the 2003-2004 season – and expect Saka to lead the way.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Dennis (DK $7.8K || FD $12K), Ferguson (DK $7.5K || FD $17)
Midfielders
Leandro Trossard- DK $8.1K || FD $19
Opponent - Leeds United
For some strange reason, DraftKings has Trossard as a midfielder only for this matchweek and of course, it makes life a tad hard when roster building. Nevertheless, he will be the highest-owned midfielder because he is expected to lead the attack for Arsenal against goal-friendly Leeds United. Leeds’ poor defense has been aforementioned above and in Trossard’s last five fixtures in domestic play – 4 starts –, he has 5 assists, 2 shots, 11 created chances, 22 crosses, 13 corners and 2 tackles. Trossard has not shown any true goal-scoring form since he arrived at Arsenal, however, that fate could change in the meeting with Leeds.
Michael Olise- DK $7.1K || FD $14
Opponent - Leicester City
Unfortunately, the same clubs are being highlighted, however, it is hard to pass up these players, especially in ‘CASH’ contests this weekend. Olise does have a friendly matchup against Leicester City as aforementioned above, however, it is his role in the club that makes him appealing. Teammate Eberechi Eze is not expected to start this weekend which leaves all set-pieces to Olise, making him an invaluable part of roster construction at his salary on DraftKings. In Olise’s last five appearances in domestic play, he has 5 shots, 5 created chances, 26 crosses, 15 corners, 7 tackles and 5 interceptions. As his stats suggest, he is nothing more of a support player in the attack and with Zaha leading the line, Olise will have ample opportunities to get a point here.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Maddison (DK $9.2K || FD $20), Gibbs-White (DK $7.8K || FD $15)
Defense
Adam Smith- DK $3.3K || FD $9
Opponent - Fulham
Smith is the furthest thing from a defensive anchor, however, he is providing a full range of support over the past few weeks. Throughout his last five matches in domestic play, he has 1 shot, 2 created chances, 4 crosses, 2 tackles, 3 interceptions and 17 clearances. This slate is going to be a toss-up at defense and it will ultimately come down to your roster construction in the other positions. Smith will provide enough to maintain value for a ‘cheaper’ wingback and on FanDuel he will be even more valuable thanks to their defense-friendly scoring. With no Mitrovic in the lineup for Fulham – 3 or more game suspension –, a majority of the Fulham attack is gone, providing Smith a chance at a home clean sheet.
Oleksandr Zinchenko- DK $6.1K || FD $10
Opponent - Leeds United
The final piece of the Arsenal puzzle is Zinchenko. For those that would like to spend more on defense for this weekend, Zinchenko is the fullback to spend on. Playing for the biggest favorite on the slate, at home and with a friendly matchup against a struggling Leeds United this is the perfect spot for any fullback. Leeds has been susceptible to attacking fullbacks over the last few weeks conceding goals to two different fullbacks highlighted in the article and I wouldn’t put it past them to concede a Zinchenko goal this weekend. Over his last five appearances in domestic play, he has 6 shots, 8 created chances, 8 crosses, 1 corner, 9 tackles, 4 interceptions and 2 clearances. Even if he does not manage to get on the score sheet, he will at least provide enough elsewhere to maintain value.
Others To Consider (CASH/GPP): Estupinan (DK $6.4K || FD $11), Clyne (DK $2.9K || FD $8)
Corner Takers:
AFC Bournemouth: Traore/Anthony
Fulham: Pereira
Arsenal: Saka/Odegaard/Martinelli
Leeds United: Harrison/Roca
Brighton & Hove Albion: Gross/March
Brentford: Jensen/Mbuemo
Crystal Palace: Olise
Leicester City: Maddison
Nottingham Forest: Gibbs-White
Wolverhampton: Moutinho/Neto
Thanks for reading The Kick-Off! Good luck in all of your contests today!
