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Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 13 of the 2024-25 season, starting on 11/29/2024. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets and providing predictions for each game.
The EPL season rolls on and we're bringing you our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. Matchday 13 kicks off on Friday, November 29, with Southampton visiting Brighton. It culminates on Sunday, December 1, when Liverpool hosts Manchester City.
Every week, we'll offer a preview of all the games. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Matchday 12 Recap
Last weekend was another "nearly matchday" that saw us miss out on a big parlay by one goal. Needing three goals in Ipswich's game against Manchester United, the Red Devils took the lead inside two minutes. Ipswich equalized before halftime, leaving us needing just one more goal.
Sadly, the second half saw plenty of chances, but no goals. Ipswich was denied a famous win by poor finishing and Andre Onana's reactions. Sadly, the expected goals from the game highlight how unfortunate we were. Other than that, it was a mediocre week with half as many correct picks as losing ones.
Ipswich (2.12) 1-1 (0.98) Man Utd
— The xG Philosophy (@xGPhilosophy) November 24, 2024
A quick reminder that Matchday 14 takes place between Tuesday and Thursday, meaning a rapid turnaround. We will still be bringing you previews and picks for every game. Just keep in mind that things can be more volatile with many teams rotating their starting lineups.
Friday, November 29, 2024
Brighton (-235) vs. Southampton (+600) - 3:00 p.m. EST
Score prediction: Brighton 2 – 1 Southampton
Brighton is one of three teams with an unbeaten home record, but it has been held to a draw three times. Southampton has lost all six away games, although it has been competitive recently. Both teams have scored in five of Brighton's six home games and that is what we'll play to kick things off.
Saturday, November 30, 2024
Brentford (-145) vs. Leicester City (+360) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Brentford 4 – 2 Leicester City
Brentford owns the best home record in the league (16 points) and scored more goals at home (18) than any other team. Only Wolves (14) have conceded more home goals than Brentford (11). What does that mean for us? A home win and plenty of goals. We'll be playing all three of those options.
Crystal Palace (+205) vs. Newcastle United (+135) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1 – 1 Newcastle United
Palace's draw at Aston Villa means it has lost just once in the last four games. It has only scored three goals at home. Newcastle has an even 2-2-2 record on the road, scoring eight goals and conceding eight. This looks like a tight game, one in which both teams will score.
Nottingham Forest (-140) vs. Ipswich Town (+400) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2 – 0 Ipswich Town
After losing just once in its first 10 EPL games of the season, Forest came into the weekend on the back of consecutive losses. I expect it to right the ship this weekend. Ipswich is riding a three-game unbeaten run, but Forest should get back to what made the start of its season so impressive.
Still the only team to beat Liverpool this season:
Nottingham Forest. pic.twitter.com/iXz0WQ2xf9
— StatMuse FC (@statmusefc) November 27, 2024
Wolves (+175) vs. Bournemouth (+145) - 10:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Wolves 3 – 1 Bournemouth
Regular readers will know I said Wolves will struggle to start the season given its schedule. But it would come good after Matchday 10. And that's what we're seeing. Bournemouth has only won once on the road. Having scored 10 goals in its last four games, we'll back a high-scoring home win.
West Ham United (+550) vs. Arsenal (-215) - 12:30 p.m. EST
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 2 Arsenal
Arsenal got back to winning ways last weekend and followed that up with a thumping 5-1 win against Sporting Lisbon in the Champions League. West Ham picked up a surprise win at Newcastle, so it shouldn't be ruled out from taking something at home.
The Gunners look a completely different side with skipper Martin Ødegaard in it. Since returning from injury, they've scored nine goals in three games. But the impact of their full-back pairing of Jurrien Timber and Riccardo Calafiori shouldn't be ignored. That's why we're taking over 2.5 goals.
Games in which BOTH Timber & Calafiori started this season:
🤝 Man City 2-2 Arsenal
✅ Arsenal 4-2 Leicester City
✅ Arsenal 2-0 PSG
✅ Arsenal 3-0 Nottingham Forest
✅ Sporting 1-5 ArsenalCombined xG for: 11.06
Combined xG against: 4.28 pic.twitter.com/fHI5OMjXel— Rory Talks Football (@Rory_Talks_Ball) November 28, 2024
Sunday, December 1, 2024
Chelsea (-135) vs. Aston Villa (+310) - 9:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Chelsea 2 – 0 Aston Villa
Chelsea's home form has been sketchy, with just two wins from its six games at Stamford Bridge. But it welcomes an Aston Villa side that has failed to win any of its last seven games in all competitions, blanking in three of the last four. We'll take a home win at generous odds.
Manchester United (-195) vs. Everton (+500) - 9:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 0 Everton
Anyone thinking Ruben Amorim would wave a magic wand and get immediate results will have had their eyes opened last weekend. Man United needed to come from behind to beat FK Bodø/Glimt in the Europa League, too.
Everton has not scored in its last three games. There's been a total of 10 goals in Everton's last eight games and no side has scored more than once against it since Matchday 5. It's tough to see Everton get anything from this game but we'll take the under for total goals given recent form.
"Supporters have been concerned ever since I walked in the door"
Sean Dyche on Everton's lack of wins.
FULL VIDEO: https://t.co/3xtYLRv4EE pic.twitter.com/SoAZqYfi7a
— 𝐓𝐎𝐅𝐅𝐄𝐄 𝐓𝐕 (@ToffeeTVEFC) November 23, 2024
Tottenham Hotspur (-145) vs. Fulham (+330) - 9:30 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 3 – 1 Fulham
Tottenham's demolition of Manchester City rounded off a run of results that sum it up perfectly. In four weeks, it has beaten Manchester City twice, beat Aston 4-1, and was the first team to lose to Crystal Palace and Ipswich Town. Who knows what version of Tottenham turns up on Sunday?
Fulham suffered its heaviest defeat of the season last weekend. After not conceding more than once in any of its first six games of the season, it has conceded three or more three times in its last six. That's why we'll be taking Tottenham to win in a high-scoring game, with both teams scoring.
Liverpool (+110) vs. Manchester City (+220) - 11:00 a.m. EST
Score prediction: Liverpool 2 – 2 Manchester City
Matchday 13 ends with the game of the weekend. A home win will surely end City's title hopes, and after looking like it was returning to form in midweek, conceding three late goals highlighted its fragility. Even without Rodri, I can't rule City out from getting back to its best.
A home win is the likeliest outcome, but Kevin De Bruyne's return should inspire City's attack. It just looks so vulnerable at the back that it's difficult to see how it outscores Liverpool. As a result, we'll just be playing over 2.5 total goals.
Manchester City have thrown away a three-goal lead in a European match for the first time ever...
While they are also the first team in Champions League history to fail to win having led by three goals as late as the 75th minute.
Next up: Anfield. 😬#UCL pic.twitter.com/UUXUTlZXif
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) November 26, 2024
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each game's three main plays (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 goals | BTTS |
| Brighton 2 – 1 Southampton | Brighton -235 | Over -220 | Yes -155 |
| Brentford 4 – 2 Leicester | Brentford -145 | Over -175 | Yes -165 |
| C. Palace 1 – 1 Newcastle | Draw +245 | Under +100 | Yes -165 |
| N. Forest 2 – 0 Ipswich | N. Forest -140 | Under -110 | No +100 |
| Wolves 3 – 1 Bournemouth | Wolves +175 | Over -160 | Yes -190 |
| West Ham 1 – 2 Arsenal | Arsenal -215 | Over -150 | Yes -120 |
| Chelsea 2 – 0 Aston Villa | Chelsea -135 | Under +155 | No +150 |
| Man United 1 – 0 Everton | Man United -195 | Under -105 | No -105 |
| Tottenham 3 – 1 Fulham | Tottenham -145 | Over -235 | Yes -220 |
| Liverpool 2 – 2 Man City | Draw +265 | Over -185 | Yes -215 |
| Season totals | 55/120 | 53/120 | 64/120 |
| Season parlays | 1/12 (-0.53u) | 0/12 (-12.00u) | 4/12 (+20.35u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
