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The EPL season is back and so is our weekly article looking at betting picks and predictions for all games. The Matchday kicks off on Friday, August 16 with Manchester United hosting Fulham. It culminates on Monday, August 19 when Tottenham Hotspur visits newly promoted Leicester City.
As we did last season, we'll offer a preview of every game. We'll predict the outcome, give a score prediction, and pick our favorite play for all fixtures. As it's the opening weekend, I'll be offering you my favorite season-long play for every team. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.
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Friday, August 16, 2024
Manchester United (-190) vs. Fulham (+475) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Manchester United 1 – 1 Fulham
It's been something of an underwhelming preseason for Manchester United. It has focused on bringing in defenders in the transfer market but still looks short in midfield and upfront.
Fulham continues to look to add to a solid squad with Emile Smith Rowe being the marquee signing so far. Fulham caused an upset at Old Trafford last season and a similar result wouldn't come as a huge surprise here.
Fulham play @premierleague football this week. 😍 pic.twitter.com/UpBTz7ZUKB
— Fulham Football Club (@FulhamFC) August 12, 2024
Season prediction: Manchester United - Not to finish in the top-6 +120
Season prediction: Fulham - To finish top-10 +300
A season without European football might have done Manchester United a favor. It looks like it'll be a real battle for fourth place with five teams realistically contending.
At the moment, Manchester United looks like it'll fall short and another finish outside the top six is on the cards. Fulham is my dark horse to finish in the top half of the table. If it can add a couple more top players like it is trying to do, a top-10 finish is possible.
Saturday, August 17, 2024
Ipswich Town (+650) vs. Liverpool (-285) - 7:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Ipswich Town 0 – 3 Liverpool
Ipswich will be backed by a boisterous crowd as its 22-year wait for top-flight return is over. However, it could be a rude awakening for it as it couldn't have asked for a much tougher opening assignment.
Liverpool's inactivity in the transfer market might not be the worst thing as new manager Arne Slot has had a settled preseason. I fully expect that to factor into this one with Liverpool running out comfortable winners.
Season prediction: Ipswich Town - To be relegated -120
Season prediction: Liverpool - To finish top-2 +135
I see Ipswich having a similar season to Luton Town last year. It'll have enough goals in it to pick up points against the teams around it but ultimately lack a strong enough defense to stay up. While I believe Liverpool will finish third again, we still don't know if Manchester City will get a points deduction.
Regardless of that, if City or Arsenal slip up, Liverpool is best positioned to finish in the top two.
🚨 Martin Zubimendi decides to stay at Real Sociedad. Despite Liverpool pursuit & #Sociedad initially anticipating move to be accepted 25yo convinced to remain; Richard Hughes told today. At present #LFC not expecting to sign alternative No6 @TheAthleticFC https://t.co/cwts4pHibj
— David Ornstein (@David_Ornstein) August 12, 2024
Arsenal (-525) vs. Wolves (+1100) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Arsenal 2 – 0 Wolves
Arsenal did the double over Wolves last season. But the Midlanders weren't overawed in either game, losing 2-0 and 2-1. Arsenal tends to start the season playing within itself and just ensuring it gets a win rather than blowing teams away. I worry Wolves will miss Pedro Neto considerably this season, so a comfortable, albeit low-scoring, win for the title hopefuls is my play.
Season prediction: Arsenal - Premier League winner +160
Season prediction: Wolves - Team's top scorer Hee-Chan Hwang +250
Arsenal closed the gap on Manchester City last season and even without a points deduction for the champions, Arsenal will fancy its chances of ending its title drought. For Wolves, Hwang was joint top scorer with Matheus Cunha last season (12 goals).
Hwang played three fewer games and without the creativity of Neto, double-digit goals for either may be tough. Hwang's odds to be Wolves' top scorer are appealing.
Fewest minutes per assist in the Premier League last season (1000+ mins played):
◎ 122.7 - Kevin De Bruyne
◉ 168.6 - Pedro NetoThe Wolves attacker is set to join Chelsea, per @FabriceHawkins. 😲 pic.twitter.com/7PSOxLWsNG
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) August 9, 2024
Everton (+160) vs. Brighton (+170) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Everton 1 – 1 Brighton
Brighton will be a tough team to predict in the early goings. New manager Fabian Hürzeler will break the record of youngest-ever EPL manager when he stands in the dugout on Saturday.
How it pans out remains to be seen, so we'll play things safe. Both games between the two sides ended 1-1 last season and as reflected in the odds, this is the tightest game on the slate. Another low-scoring draw is my favorite play.
Houston-born Fabian Hürzeler joins @OfficialBHAFC and becomes the youngest manager in Premier League history! 🫡 pic.twitter.com/ygKzh0t3EO
— Premier League USA (@PLinUSA) June 15, 2024
Season prediction: Everton - Team's top scorer Youssef Chermiti +2500
Season prediction: Brighton - To finish in the bottom half -120
I genuinely have no idea what to expect from Everton this season. I suspect it'll be another difficult season, so I'm going for a bit of a YOLO play. Dominic Calvert-Lewin can't stay fit and hasn't stayed fit enough to get a long run in the team. Plus, he's still being linked with a move away from Goodison Park.
Chermiti is set to miss the first couple of games through injury but had a good preseason before getting hurt, so we'll take the high-odds play.
For Brighton, Fabian Hürzeler will have his work cut out if he's to get it back into the top 10. Other teams around it look like they could make a push for a top-half finish. While I don't foresee any relegation concerns, this year may be more of a rebuilding season for the Seagulls.
Newcastle United (-290) vs. Southampton (+650) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Newcastle United 3 – 2 Southampton
Only Manchester City (51) scored more home goals than Newcastle (49) last season. While it did look shaky defensively last year, it still kept eight clean sheets at home. That being said, I expect Southampton to have a go on its Premier League return.
It won't sit back and defend for a point, that's for sure. While that could ultimately end up costing it, it'll give Newcastle a scare and this could be a highly entertaining game.
Newcastle first 5 Premier League games for 24/25 season
Southampton (H)
Bournemouth (A)
Spurs (H)
Wolves (A)
Fulham (A)No Europe competition this season. Isak and Trippier already looking like locked in picks to start off with https://t.co/VPNbQxrHJh
— FPL Manual (Wale) (@TheFPLManual) July 15, 2024
Season prediction: Newcastle United - To win the EFL Cup +1400
Season prediction: Southampton - To be relegated -105
Newcastle doesn't have the distraction of European football this season. That could help it end what would be a 70-year trophy drought. As much as its fans want a top-4 finish, it'd love a trophy more and the EFL Cup represents the best chance at one.
Teams promoted via the playoffs have an even harder time staying up the following season. I fear Southampton will concede too many goals to avoid an immediate return to the Championship.
Nottingham Forest (+140) vs. Bournemouth (+185) - 10:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 2 – 0 Bournemouth
It could be a long and arduous season for both clubs. Bournemouth just lost its top scorer from last season; Dominic Solanke. He scored 19 of its 54 goals and it is yet to have a chance to replace him.
While I ultimately feel like Bournemouth will have a better season (just), Forest winning in a low-scoring game here is my preferred play. Bournemouth (39) conceded the fifth-most away goals last season and that could be its downfall again.
Season prediction: Nottingham Forest - To be relegated +220
Season prediction: Bournemouth - Top South East and West team +200
Although I expect a home win, I fear for Forest this season. Nuno Espirito Santo managed to keep it up last season but it only picked up 22 points from his 21 games in charge. While a point-per-game average will keep it up again, it doesn't look any better equipped this season.
Bournemouth finished on level points with Brighton last season. If it can replace Solanke, it could finish above Brighton and is certain to finish above Southampton.
Dominic Solanke lost possession as a result of an unsuccessful touch more times (136) than any other player in the Premier League last season. 🫥 pic.twitter.com/AIjN9huVqd
— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) August 8, 2024
West Ham United (+145) vs. Aston Villa (+170) - 12:30 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: West Ham United 1 – 2 Aston Villa
West Ham will be looking to get back into Europe after finishing ninth last season. That's probably a more realistic expectation this season. While it has made some solid additions to the squad, it may take time for new head coach Julen Lopetegui to make an impact.
Villa's Champions League campaign may take a toll on its form later in the season. But it should have too much for West Ham in the season opener.
Season prediction: West Ham United - Mohammed Kudus to score over 9.5 goals +125
Season prediction: Aston Villa - To finish outside the top-6 -188
Kudus scored eight goals in 27 starts last season. Without European football or AFCON this season, Kudus should be able to play more games. Reaching double digits for goals scored is well within his capabilities. As mentioned, I fear that the Champions League will impact Villa's league form.
We saw Newcastle struggle after an early elimination from the competition last season. The new format may make it even tougher for Villa to get into the top six this season.
Most successful dribbles in Europe's top five leagues last season:
◎ 124 - Mohammed Kudus
◎ 104- Savinho
◎ 102 - Matías Soulé
◎ 101 - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
◎ 96 - Jérémy Doku pic.twitter.com/7CQCssoO9B— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) July 19, 2024
Sunday, August 18, 2024
Brentford (+145) vs. Crystal Palace (+185) - 9:00 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Brentford 2 – 1 Crystal Palace
Brentford is the team I'm expecting to be most improved this season. Ivan Toney having a full preseason will be a big boost and he'll be a difference-maker in tight games like this.
I do expect a home win, but the likeliest outcome of the game is for both teams to find the net. Palace scored in 13 of the 14 games under Oliver Glasner last season. Brentford scored in all but three of its home games last season.
Season prediction: Brentford - Team's top scorer Ivan Toney -138
Season prediction: Crystal Palace - To finish in the bottom half -138
Toney will likely remain a Brentford player when the transfer window closes. Given he scored 20 goals for it two seasons ago, only injury will prevent him from being Brentford's top scorer this season.
Palace is everyone's favorite dark horse this season. However, it has lost Michael Olise, Jean-Philippe Mateta is only just back from the Olympics, and both their center-backs are being heavily linked with a move away from the club.
I don't expect Palace to be embroiled in a relegation battle. But most of its hopes seem to be placed on Eberechi Eze. A player also linked to a move away from Selhurst Park and who only started 24 games last season due to injury. I suspect it misses out on repeating last season's 10th-place finish.
Most successful dribbles in Europe's top five leagues last season:
◎ 124 - Mohammed Kudus
◎ 104- Savinho
◎ 102 - Matías Soulé
◎ 101 - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
◎ 96 - Jérémy Doku pic.twitter.com/7CQCssoO9B— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) July 19, 2024
Chelsea (+300) vs. Manchester City (-125) - 11:30 a.m. EDT
Score prediction: Chelsea 1 – 3 Manchester City
If you can coherently explain Chelsea's transfer policy, please let me know. It's been another summer of seemingly endless signings and yet another new head coach to try and work out his best starting lineup.
Manchester City is way too underpriced to turn down in this one. Anytime you can get City to win at slightly lower than evens, you take it. Especially against such an unsettled team with a new man in charge.
Season prediction: Chelsea - Nicolas Jackson under 14.5 goals -120
Season prediction: Manchester City - To win the FA Cup +300
Despite an endless number of new signings, Chelsea hasn't strengthened in attack. It could still sign a striker and that would leave Jackson on the periphery. I don't see him improving on last season's goal tally.
If City winds up with a points deduction following its rules breaching, it could turn its attention to the cups. It has reached the last two FA Cup finals and is the favorite to make it three on the trot.
Most successful dribbles in Europe's top five leagues last season:
◎ 124 - Mohammed Kudus
◎ 104- Savinho
◎ 102 - Matías Soulé
◎ 101 - Khvicha Kvaratskhelia
◎ 96 - Jérémy Doku pic.twitter.com/7CQCssoO9B— WhoScored.com (@WhoScored) July 19, 2024
Monday, August 19, 2024
Leicester City (+400) vs. Tottenham Hotspur (-170) - 3:00 p.m. EDT
Score prediction: Leicester City 1 – 2 Tottenham Hotspur
Leicester had the best defensive record in the Championship last season. New manager Steve Cooper hasn't been able to bring in much by way of new players. But he did keep Nottingham Forest in the Premier League two seasons ago after achieving promotion and Leicester will be backed by a fervent home support.
Still, I expect Tottenham to win the game as it has more than enough attacking players to outscore the hosts.
Season prediction: Leicester City - To finish bottom +175
Season prediction: Tottenham Hotspur - To finish top-4 +200
Fourth place is probably the most wide-open it's ever been coming into the season. It makes sense to back one of the underdogs to finish in fourth. Tottenham narrowly missed out on fourth place last season and is probably best placed to push on this season given so much uncertainty lingers among its competitors.
Granted I've already played three teams to get relegated. But that's hedging whereas Leicester to finish bottom looks likely. Financial issues have left it unable to strengthen its squad and it looks set to lead to a points deduction.
Last season's star player, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, has left for Chelsea. And now there is some discontent among the fan base following a couple of dreadful preseason performances.
BREAKING: Leicester are facing a charge for allegedly breaching the Premier League's Profit and Sustainability rules in their final season before they were relegated, Sky Sports News can reveal - meaning they could face a points deduction next season. pic.twitter.com/N4IIni6dsi
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) March 7, 2024
Betting Picks
The table below gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay (which I will be playing and tracking).
| Game | Moneyline | Over/Under 2.5 | BTTS |
| Man United 1 – 1 Fulham | Draw +350 | U2.5 +165 | Yes -180 |
| Ipswich 0 – 3 Liverpool | Liverpool -285 | O2.5 -240 | No +115 |
| Arsenal 2 – 0 Wolves | Arsenal -525 | U2.5 +155 | No -150 |
| Everton 1 – 1 Brighton | Draw +235 | U2.5 +100 | Yes -175 |
| Newcastle 3 – 2 Southampton | Newcastle -290 | O2.5 -260 | Yes -155 |
| N. Forest 2 – 0 Bournemouth | N. Forest +140 | U2.5 +105 | No +140 |
| West Ham 1 – 2 A. Villa | A. Villa +170 | O2.5 -185 | Yes -225 |
| Brentford 2 – 1 C. Palace | Brentford +145 | O2.5 -130 | Yes -180 |
| Chelsea 1 – 3 Man City | Man City -125 | O2.5 -210 | Yes -220 |
| Leicester 1 – 2 Tottenham | Tottenham -170 | O2.5 -205 | Yes -180 |
| 2023-2024 Season totals | 177/349 | 201/349 | 200/349 |
| 2023-2024 Season parlays | 3/34 (-17.90u) | 9/34 (+15.93u) | 11/34 (+23.38u) |
Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!
