EPL Betting Picks and FPL Game Previews for Matchday 11: English Premier League

Jamie Steed previews EPL Matchday 11 of the 2023/24 season, starting on 11/04/2023. He previews each game from the English Premier League; picking bets, analyzing the FPL impacts, and looking at the best options for your lineups.

The Premier League is back and so is the RotoBaller soccer team. We're offering up our favorite betting pick for each game, along with a score prediction, and will include a player to look out for in fantasy from each fixture. Before you read on, remember these essential things: betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. And never bet what you can't afford to lose.

Matchday 10 was rather uneventful but still threw up some interesting scorelines. After going 10-for-10 the week before, our seven correct results will have seemed disappointing. We still bagged a BTTS parlay to take home a profit again. It was our fifth consecutive week hitting a BTTS parlay but this week's fixtures are not appealing and it looks like a week that could provide some surprising results.

We've been cranking up the soccer content at RotoBaller, too. We're still bringing you dedicated DFS and Fantasy Premier League content on top of the weekly preview and betting content, which can be found if you click here. Follow the team on X (@LucidMediaDFS, @EuanOrYouOut, @df_solutions, @BellRoto and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo), and reach out to any of us if you ever have any soccer questions.

Saturday, November 04, 2023

Fulham (+250) vs. Manchester United (+105) - 08:30 am ET

Score prediction: Fulham 0 - 1 Manchester United

Fulham's draw at Brighton was a decent result but continued their inconsistent run. They've yet to have back-to-back results the same so if that streak continues, this game will have a winner. As we stated last week, United's recent winning streak was masking some issues. City comfortably brushed them aside and the ongoing murmurs of discontent within the team do not go away.

Fulham's home record mirrors United's away record. Four games played, two wins, two losses, four goals scored and six goals conceded. Fulham's inconsistency and United's sub-standard performances all lead me to believe this will be a low-scoring game and I suspect the visitors find a way to score a goal. That may be enough to take the points.

FPL Pick: Bruno Fernandes

The United captain has come under the spotlight lately and question marks about his suitability for the role continue to plague the club. This certainly feels like the ideal opportunity to show his value. Fernandes is still United's highest points scorer (41) while leading the team in shots on target (11) and shot-creating actions (52).

"He's the opposite to what I would want in a captain!"

Roy Keane says he would take the captaincy off Bruno Fernandes 😳 pic.twitter.com/r8ynceAum8

— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) October 29, 2023

Brentford (+105) vs. West Ham United (+235) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Brentford 2 - 2 West Ham United

Brentford made it back-to-back wins after a six-game winless run in the league. They also managed to keep consecutive clean sheets for the first time this season. However, that was largely down to Chelsea's profligacy. West Ham also missed chances before succumbing to a fourth defeat in their last six EPL games. The loss against Everton was the first time this season in which they've failed to score a goal.

Brentford's three wins have coincided with their three clean sheets. They've drawn three of their five home games, winning one and losing one. Brentford's home games have averaged 3.4 goals while West Ham's away games have averaged 3.6 goals. This could be the most exciting game of the weekend and one both teams have strong chances of winning. Ultimately, I feel it could end up with the points being shared.

FPL Pick: Jarrod Bowen

Bowen's had a resurgence this season after something of a down campaign last year. His 60 FPL points lead the team and are sixth most among midfielders. Bowen has scored in all five of West Ham's away games in the league, joining an elite group in doing so. Given Brentford has kept just one clean sheet in five home games, Bowen will justifiably be a popular play again this week.

5 - Jarrod Bowen is the third player in Premier League history to score in each of their team's first five away games in a campaign, after Thierry Henry (2001-02) and Mohamed Salah (2021-22). Bowen is the first player to do so for West Ham in the top-flight. Railcard. pic.twitter.com/2tU3zp7GHr

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) October 22, 2023

Burnley (+180) vs. Crystal Palace (+160) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Burnley 0 - 1 Crystal Palace

Burnley's third straight defeat has left them in 19th place in the table and an immediate return to the Championship is on the cards. They did take the lead in two of their last three losses but seem to lack the quality to secure a win from that position. Palace's 2-1 loss on Friday marked the ninth time in ten games they've failed to score more than once. They've now scored just three goals in their last six EPL games, tallying three blanks in that time.

Burnley is yet to pick up a point at home while conceding 16 goals in their five home games. Palace has only found the net four times in their five away games so aren't exactly best set to put up a big score against Burnley. Burnley's 4.2 xG (expected goals) at home is the lowest in the league so it's difficult to see them finding a way to win. This looks like it will be another close and low-scoring affair.

FPL Pick: Joachim Andersen

I don't generally advocate for central defenders in FPL. But a lack of available attacking talent for Palace lends itself to opting for a defender. He has a clear route to providing a solid return with a clean sheet, potential goal involvement and bonus points. Only Kieran Trippier has more points (59) and bonus points (12) than Anderson (54 points and nine bonus points) at the defender position.

Joachim Andersen and Tyrick Mitchell have created the joint-most big chances for Palace this season (2).

The decision to neglect making attacking upgrades is looking stranger as each game passes 😬 pic.twitter.com/SjDGMvIYid

— MatchdayCPFC (@MatchdayCPFC) October 30, 2023

Everton (+195) vs. Brighton (+125) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Everton 1 - 2 Brighton

Everton's surprise win at West Ham means they've alternated a loss with a win during their last six league games. It was their second clean sheet of the season, both coming in their last three games. Brighton will feel aggrieved not to have beaten Fulham but it's now four games without a league win. It was only the second time this season they had dropped points to a side not currently in the top-6.

Last weekend saw the first Brighton game to not have three or more goals scored in it. While injuries and European fixtures are starting to play a role in Brighton's recent struggles, it's easy to forget they've scored three or more goals in six of their 10 EPL games. The concern is they've only scored once in three of their last four. Everton's scored just four goals in their five home games, losing four times so I'm giving the visitors the edge in this one.

FPL Pick: Evan Ferguson

Ferguson scored his fifth league goal of the season last weekend. That's impressive enough for a 19-year-old. Given it was only his sixth league start of the season makes it even more impressive. He's failed to score on his travels but has only started one away game so far. Ferguson is a risky option as he's no certainty to start. Danny Welbeck's injury should see Ferguson get more starts and this Saturday offers a great chance to break his away duck.

Manchester City (-1000) vs. Bournemouth (+1700) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Manchester City 4 - 0 Bournemouth

After a comprehensive win in the Manchester Derby, City will go top of the table with a win on Saturday. That might only be temporary but quite remarkable considering they've not had many plaudits for their performances so far. Bournemouth's first league win lifted them out of the relegation zone. Their -11.3 xGD (expected goal difference) is the second-worst in the league.

City has only scored more than two goals once at home (four games) but they've only conceded twice. Last weekend was only the third time Bournemouth didn't concede at least two in a game. Bournemouth's pressing style they've implemented under Andoni Iraola looks like it will play perfectly into City's hands. Their respective goals for and against numbers also point to City running out heavy winners this weekend.

FPL Pick: Erling Haaland

Just when FPL managers were starting to question the Norwegian goal machine, he goes and scores twice and adds an assist. His 16 FPL points against Manchester United was his second-biggest individual game score this season. Haaland's 11.04 xGI (expected goal involvements) are the most in the league and this is set to be a game in which Haaland can repeat last week's numbers.

✌️ Two goals
🤝 One assist
➕ Set to receive the maximum three bonus points

Erling Haaland rewards the 4,440,547 #FPL managers who handed him the captains armband in Gameweek 10 🔥#MUNMCI pic.twitter.com/qnKqCNop6s

— Fantasy Premier League (@OfficialFPL) October 29, 2023

Sheffield United (+265) vs. Wolves (+100) - 10:00 am ET

Score prediction: Sheffield United 1 - 1 Wolves

Sheffield United's 5-0 defeat at Arsenal leaves them adrift at the foot of the table. Their seven goals scored are the fewest in the league while they also have the worst defensive record, conceding 29 goals in their ten games. Wolves extended their unbeaten run to five games following their impressive 2-2 draw with Newcastle. Unfortunately, star player Pedro Neto suffered a hamstring injury in that game and is set for a spell on the sidelines.

Neto's importance to Wolves cannot be understated. They've scored 12 goals in their last eight games and Neto has assisted eight of them. Neto has been involved (scoring or assisting) in 69% of Wolves' goals this season which has me concerned they will lack the firepower to win this game. Even against the league's worst defense. They've only kept one clean sheet this season while Sheffield United's scored four goals in their five home games.

⚽️⚽️⚽️
Who tops the charts! 👇👇
Pedro Neto is a big loss for Wolves 😔 pic.twitter.com/aIEoRg0Kdq

— EPLnews (@EPLnews24_7) October 31, 2023

FPL Pick: Rayan Aït-Nouri

I alluded to it in this week's FPL preview article that Aït-Nouri has been playing an advanced role lately. The loss of Neto will mean the rest of the squad needs to step up and create chances. The Algerian international tallied six shot-creating actions against Bournemouth on Matchday 9. He could pick up a clean sheet, he could assist a goal and he could get a bonus point. There are enough possibilities to make him an intriguing play this week.

Newcastle United (+185) vs. Arsenal (+160) - 01:30 pm ET

Score prediction: Newcastle United 2 - 2 Arsenal

Newcastle come into this weekend with a six-game unbeaten run in the league following last week's 2-2 draw. They've scored 19 goals and kept four clean sheets in that run. Arsenal's 5-0 win against Sheffield United was their biggest of the season. It maintained their unbeaten start to the season and was also their fourth clean sheet in their last six games. They've "only" scored 15 goals in that time.

On paper, this is the 'game of the weekend'. And one too close to call. Both teams have been in excellent form lately, scoring plenty of goals while being miserly at the back. Notably, the five draws these two have had this season all ended 2-2. Their last nine league encounters have seen just one team score (with Arsenal winning seven and Newcastle winning one). I don't see that trend continuing the way the two sides are playing right now.

FPL Pick: Callum Wilson

Few teams can lose their main striker to injury and plug in someone equally as competent. But both Newcastle and Arsenal have top scorers this season who were considered back-up strikers. Eddie Nketiah is coming off a first EPL hat-trick but Callum Wilson has almost gone unnoticed this season. That's despite scoring seven goals in just four starts with a goal coming in each of the games in which he's in the starting XI.

Callum Wilson has won #NUFC Player of the Month for October pic.twitter.com/KToYHphq02

— Newcastle Fans TV (@NewcastleFansTV) November 1, 2023

Sunday, November 05, 2023

Nottingham Forest (+300) vs. Aston Villa (-115) - 09:00 am ET

Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1 - 2 Aston Villa

Last weekend's defeat may have been Forest's first since Matchday 6 but they've now gone six games without a win (four draws and two losses). It was also their third blank in five games. Villa's 26 goals scored this season are tied for the most in the league. Last week's win was a club-record 12th consecutive home league win. Villa's away record isn't as impressive, with seven points from five games, six goals scored and ten conceded.

Despite Villa's away record not being close to resembling their home form, their two losses came at Liverpool and Newcastle. They have only scored more than one goal on their travels once (at Burnley) so I don't foresee a big scoreline. Those two losses are the only games in which they've conceded more than once. All four of Forest's home games have seen both sides score with three draws and one win. A first home defeat is on the cards though.

FPL Pick: Moussa Diaby

While Ollie Watkins has been racking up the points lately, Diaby reminded FPL managers of his talents last weekend. While Watkins failed to register a goal involvement for the first time since Matchday 4, Diaby scored and assisted. That took his goal involvement tally up to eight this season and the 13 points was a season-high. Diaby might just be finding his best form and a midweek off will only help keep him fresh for another big performance.

Luton Town (+900) vs. Liverpool (-400) - 11:30 am ET

Score prediction: Luton Town 0 - 2 Liverpool

Luton's seventh defeat of the season saw them slip into the relegation zone. While it's been a difficult start to the season for the EPL newcomers, last week's defeat at Aston Villa was the first time in eight games they had lost by more than one goal. Liverpool maintained their 100% home record while keeping back-to-back clean sheets for the first time this season.

Luton has only taken one point from their four home games. But all three defeats have been by one goal so they have been competitive. Liverpool's won just two of their five away games and only one by a margin of more than one goal. Liverpool is the better side and I can't see anything but an away win. But I do think it's a closer game than many others seem to think and I wouldn't be surprised if it remains goalless until the second half.

FPL Pick: Darwin Núñez

With Luis Diaz understandably not playing due to personal reasons, Núñez will likely lead the line for Liverpool again this week. He scored 10 points last week following his goal and an assist. Only four forwards have scored more FPL points than Núñez (47) this season. He's only started four EPL games but was left out of their midweek Carabao Cup game, before coming on and scoring a screamer. He's almost locked in to start on Sunday.

Darwin Nunez puts Liverpool ahead 🔥 pic.twitter.com/KKjrh15aBv

— EPL Bible (@EPLBible) November 1, 2023

Monday, November 06, 2023

Tottenham Hotspur (+115) vs. Chelsea (+215) - 03:00 pm ET

Score prediction: Tottenham Hotspur 1 - 1 Chelsea

Tottenham had to work for their win at Crystal Palace but victory ensured they remained top of the table and unbeaten. The lack of European football has certainly helped their league form. Just when Chelsea appeared to be finding some form, they succumbed to another disappointing defeat. Only Everton (5.7) has a greater discrepancy between their goals and xG than Chelsea (5.2).

Tottenham's won all four of their home games, scoring two in each of them. Chelsea's struggles have largely been at home with seven of their 12 points coming on the road. Chelsea continues to have difficulty putting the ball in the back of the net but has only conceded four goals away from home. Mauricio Pochettino returning to his former club adds to the intrigue of this game and I fancy he manages to frustrate his former employers.

FPL Pick: Son Heung-min

Sometimes there's no point overthinking FPL decisions. This Tottenham team runs through James Maddison and Son Heung-min. The duo have combined for 11 goals and seven assists. Maddison only has one double-digit points game this season while Son has achieved that in each of his last two games. That's why Son gets my vote this week.

Betting Picks

The below table gives the odds for each of the three main plays for each game (moneyline, total goals, and both teams to score). My favorite pick from each game is highlighted if you are looking to build a parlay.

Good luck with those FPL teams and EPL bets. Remember to bet responsibly!

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