RADIO
The weekend slate treated us well. Four correct picks from six on Saturday (including a +300 winner) and only denied a clean swipe by the woodwork and a sitter missed. Sunday saw us bag two from three (with a void bet and a +525 correct score pick) and miss out on the sweep with Manchester inexplicably unable to score despite 26 shots and 74% possession. The midweek concludes on Thursday and as of writing, Wednesday's games have yet to be played. We did bag ourselves a parlay on Tuesday and a questionable refereeing decision lost us the Arsenal game while Crystal Palace hit to woodwork in the 93rd minute to deny us a winner there too. No time to self-pity as we go again on Thursday. Each game I'll be giving you the intel to find value bets, offering my pick to bet on and predicting the correct score. Here's how we have started off:
- Picks total - 20 out of 40
- Picks last slate - 6 out of 10
- Parlays - 4 out of 13
Before you read on, remember these important things: Betting on sports should be fun. If you aren't having fun with it, stop. Never bet what you can't afford to lose. And if you don't agree with my picks, don't bet on it. I'm far from being a professional gambler and just enjoy a flutter on the soccer. All I'm doing is looking at stats to try and find potential value in the likelier outcomes. I'll predict the score of each game and will just be picking the bet I think offers the best value so it'll be down to you what you bet on and how. Feel free to parlay any picks too.
Teams have now played three or four games each so we have a better understanding of what the 3-month hiatus has had on the teams. Playing games without any fans in the stadium is still something of an anomaly that impacts teams differently so it's a wise move to take things slower and more sensible until the end of the season. Feel free to reach me on Twitter @Baseball_Jimbo for any info, have a pop for any duds and (hopefully) pats on the back for winners. All odds are taken from Pinnacle or Draftkings Sportsbooks and were correct at the time of writing.
Tottenham @ Bournemouth - 1:00 pm ET
Tottenham 8th - 48 pts
Bournemouth 19 - 27 pts
Tottenham picked up a much needed (albeit unconvincing) win on Monday night with a 1-0 victory against Everton. The win was overshadowed by a dust-up between club captain and goalkeeper Hugo Lloris and his teammate Son Heung-Min. While this sort of thing happens on training grounds everywhere and Manager Jose Mourinho declared it as 'beautiful', I was concerned about disharmony within the squad prior to the game and this hasn't changed my mind. The good thing is they're now facing arguably the worst team in the league on current form.
Since the restart, Bournemouth has gone from being in relegation danger to complete peril and look in disarray. They've lost all four games and have scored three while conceding twelve, nine of which were in their last two games. Prior to the league suspension, they had only managed one draw in their previous four games so now have claimed just a solitary point from the last 24 available. That dreadful form goes back even farther as they managed to pick up 16 points in their first 11 games but only 11 points in their last 22 games. There's no case I can make for a Bournemouth win right now, or even picking up a point.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1 - 3 Tottenham (Pinnacle odds +1250)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line Match - Tottenham to win @ -139 (Pinnacle)
Southampton @ Everton - 1:00 pm ET
Southampton 13th - 43 pts
Everton 11th - 44 pts
There's no doubt that since becoming Everton manager, Carlo Ancelotti has turned around the team's fortunes. Monday's defeat at Tottenham was only Everton's fourth loss in sixteen league games since the veteran took over the reins. All four losses have been away from home and against teams currently in the top-8 spots. At home, they've won four and drawn four in the eight games Ancelotti has been in charge which emphasizes how he makes his teams difficult to beat. Three of those wins were by a single goal so they're not blowing teams away but look organized and have goals in them.
Southampton pulled off a shock win against Manchester City on Sunday with a real 'backs to the wall' performance and have only failed to win one of their four games since the restart (2-0 loss against Arsenal). Their other two wins came against Norwich and Watford, so both against bottom-4 sides. Their away record has been much better all season having picked up 26 of their 43 points in the road. The one slight concern here is the effort they had to exert on Sunday could leave them a little heavy-legged for this game.
This should be a tight game but I give the edge to Ancelotti's Everton.
Score prediction: Everton 2 - 1 Southampton (Pinnacle odds +825)
Betting Pick:
- Money Line Match - Everton to win @ +116 (Pinnacle)
Manchester United @ Aston Villa - 3:15 pm ET
Manchester United 5th - 55 pts
Aston Villa 18th - 27 pts
The midweek slate ends with an in-form Manchester United side likely to be defending the only unbeaten record since the restart (unless Newcastle avoids defeat at Manchester City on Wednesday). After starting the resumption with a 1-1 draw at Tottenham, they've now won their last three league games all by three goals. Their front three and midfield are combining to create chances at will and it's difficult to see a scenario where Aston Villa can prevent that continuing.
Aston Villa has done a good job defensively since the restart as they went into the league suspension with the worst defensive record by a mile and averaged conceding two goals a game. They've conceded six goals in five games since the restart but are now finding goals hard to come by with just two scored in those five games. Watford's win on Tuesday night leaves Aston Villa four points adrift going into this game and now likely needing nine points from their remaining five games so will need to try and get something from this game. I just don't see that happening as they lack enough quality up front and don't appear to have any real identity in their forward play.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 0 - 2 Manchester United (Pinnacle odds +575)
Betting Pick:
- Single Game Parlay - Manchester United to win and Manchester United most corners @ -103 (Draftkings)
Parlay
- Parlay all three match-winners at +401.
If you want to go bigger odds, you can parlay the following for combined odds of +2464.
- Tottenham handicap -1.5
- Winning margin Everton by 1 goal
- Manchester United handicap -1.5
Good luck with those EPL bets and remember to bet responsibly! Check back for more EPL betting picks this week!
