Endgame Primer: Drafting For Late-Season Strength Of Schedule

September 7, 2020

Justin Carter analyzes the NFL schedule with an emphasis on which players will have the best matchups throughout the fantasy football playoffs in 2020.

It's never too early for fantasy managers to start thinking about the playoffs.

Really. I know you might think you need to take the season one week at a time and all of that, which is true, but if you're reasonably confident that you're going to make the postseason, you need to be thinking about the postseason as early as you can, including on draft night.

So, with the fantasy playoffs scheduled for Weeks 13 through 16 in most leagues, I thought we could take a position-by-position look at some players to keep in mind -- and some to worry about -- based on their fantasy playoff schedule.

Quarterback

Good Matchups

So, let's start off with the most interesting team for the purposes of the fantasy playoffs: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tom Brady's playoff schedule features games against Atlanta, who allowed the sixth-most points to quarterbacks last year, and Detroit, who allowed the seventh-most points to quarterbacks. It also involves a meeting with Minnesota, who allowed the 23rd-most, and, uhh, a Week 13 bye.

That bye week is scary, but Brady getting Atlanta and Detroit -- and Atlanta again if you play in Week 17 for some reason -- is really enticing, especially since he's playing in a Buccaneers offense with a lot of weapons.

Of course, if you'd rather not play someone with a Week 13 bye, maybe look to Jared Goff in Week 13, as he faces the Arizona Cardinals, who allowed the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks last season.

In fact, targeting the Cardinals later in the year could be interesting. Goff in Week 13 and then they'll face Daniel Jones in Week 14. And then, if you have Goff and Jones both on your roster, you get Goff against the Jets in Week 15. Week 16 gets scary though, with the Rams against Seattle and the Giants against Baltimore, but then there's an opportunity to go back to the Cardinals well that week in shallower leagues, where you might be able to grab Jimmy Garoppolo off waivers.

Not-So-Good Matchups

Josh Allen's playoff schedule: at San Francisco, vs Pittsburgh, at Denver, and at New England.

That's three road games against teams that ranked in the top seven last season in fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Allen has a chance to really struggle over the final few weeks of the 2020 fantasy season.

Patrick Mahomes has a fairly tough schedule as well, but he's Patrick Mahomes, so I'm not going to overthink things there.

Running Back

Good Matchups

Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs and the Detroit Lions allowed the third-most.

So, it might be good to target matchups against those teams. And between Week 13 and Week 16, two teams face off against both Jacksonville and Detroit: the Titans and the Bears.

For Tennessee, there's not much to discuss: Derrick Henry has strong playoff matchups, but he's already a first-rounder, so there's not much room to move him around your draft board. Maybe you look at the schedule and you take him a spot higher than you might have otherwise? Maybe this is the straw that gets you to take him over Michael Thomas?

As for Chicago, this is where I'm really interested. David Montgomery currently has a groin injury that's going to keep him out two to four weeks. His draft stock is going to dip because of concerns that he's going to miss Week 1 and/or Week 2.

But with an enticing late-season schedule that also includes Houston, who allowed the 10th-most points to running backs, maybe it's time to take advantage of how everyone else is going to get scared off of Montgomery. This could be a great chance for you to make a move that can pay off down the stretch.

The Dolphins have a terrifying matchup against the Patriots in the playoffs, but other than that face Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Las Vegas, three teams that ranked in the top 11 in most points allowed to running backs. Who knows who'll be the running back at that point in the year for them, but could be worth taking a late pick on Jordan Howard.

Not-So-Good Matchups

Just like in the quarterback section, I hate the Bills playoff schedule. Devin Singletary will likely already be facing a push for snaps from Zack Moss by that point, and then he has road games against the 49ers AND the Patriots? Nope, nope, nope.

Wide Receiver

Good Matchups

The Raiders' playoff schedule includes the Jets in Week 13 (seventh-most points allowed to wide receivers in 2019) and the Dolphins in Week 16 (second-most points). They also face the Colts (10th-most points) and Chargers. The Los Angeles matchup is a bad one for Vegas, but they get three plus games in that span.

Of course, the issue here is that you have to figure out what Raiders' wide receivers to draft. Thankfully, none of them are going high in drafts, so picking the wrong one won't kill you. I'd put my money on Hunter Renfrow, who can get some solid slot work with quarterback Derek Carr. Henry Ruggs III and Bryan Edwards are both intriguing targets, but with rookie wide receivers having questionable success in the NFL lately, I'd feel best about Renfrow.

If you have a Week 17 playoff game, then give a bump to Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, as they'd get two playoff matchups against Tampa Bay.

Not-So-Good Matchups

I won't pick on the Bills more. Instead, I think we should go the other way. The Bills allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers last season. San Francisco and New England both face them in the playoffs, and neither team has a wide receiver who -- at this current moment at least -- that I trust to overcome an incredibly tough matchup. Pittsburgh and Denver also face them, and I'd probably be down on Jerry Jeudy in Week 15.

Tight End

Good Matchups

Only one NFL team allowed an average of more than 10 fantasy points per game to tight ends last year: Arizona.

As mentioned above, the Rams get them in Week 13, then the Giants in Week 14. A Goff/Tyler Higbee and Jones/Evan Engram stack could come in very handy that week.

Washington allowed the second-most points to tight ends last year. The 49ers get to face both Arizona and Washington in the playoffs, which is a boost to George Kittle, even though Kittle doesn't really need a boost. It might be a boost to Jordan Reed. If he's healthy at that point, he's an intriguing play twice in the fantasy playoffs and his draft stock remains pretty low.

Not-So-Good Matchups

I love Austin Hooper this year, but not necessarily at the end of the year. His playoff schedule features the Ravens, who allowed the fewest points to tight ends last year, and the Jets, who allowed the third-fewest.

Hooper gets a good matchup against the Titans for one of those playoff weeks, but the other is against a Giants team that finished around mid-pack in points allowed to the position. If you're looking to prepare for the playoffs early, be a little wary of Hooper.

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