Early Summer ADP Fallers at Wide Receiver

June 4, 2020

Antonio Losada examines ADP variation of wide receivers from the start of May to the start of June and assesses their situations to find key fallers at WR in fantasy football drafts.

I am going to start this column by introducing the idea of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first few rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is at for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the past month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May leading up to June using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at four wide receiver fallers.

Wide Receivers - ADP Fallers

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys got who most people think was the No. 1 WR of the 2020 class in CeeDee Lamb during this past draft. The problem for Lamb, though, has more to do with the competition he'll face in a crowded Dallas offense than with his own ability. Although Lamb played mostly at the slot position in college he is expected to be used outside in the NFL with Amari Cooper taking on slot duties.

Again, Lamb is a top-tier receiver and will show it from the get-go. There is no doubt about that and the targets will be there no matter what. Even with that, PFF still gives Michael Gallup (102 targets, 177.2 PPR) and Amari Cooper (113, 204.3) better projections than Lamb's (76, 131.0). Add Ezekiel Elliott to that, and Dak Prescott not having his deal in place yet, and the concerns from fantasy GMs are a little bit more understandable. The drop in ADP is not that big, though, only slightly over one round during the past month. Lamb is still being heavily overpaid for, as he projects to be the 149th-best player overall while having an ADP of 118, for a negative ROI. Let him slide more before drafting him or entirely fade him.

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers offense isn't any less crowded than the Cowboys'. Anderson signed with Carolina but he will most probably have to be content with whatever is left for him after all of D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey eat. Will that be much? I'm not entirely sure, and fantasy GMs (via ADP) are expressing their concerns.

Anderson is a burner and a deep threat, and he will probably be used exclusively that way with Moore and Samuel getting shorter routes and passes. To be fair, Anderson's current ADP is getting into the realm of "low price, good investment" as he projects to reach 124.7 PPR points in 2020 and his value is rising daily with a steady drop in his ADP. He'll be a walking boom/bust play, but if his price plummets from this point to your draft day, consider him a great what-if acquisition.

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

As things look at the time of this writing, either Jeudy's ADP keeps falling, or he will stay as a negative ROI-play. Jeudy's situation in Denver, as a rookie, is not that bad. He will mostly have to compete with Courtland Sutton at the receiver position. Things get murkier if we factor in the backfield of Melvin Gordon II and Phillip Lindsay, both more than capable as pass-catching running backs. Perhaps that is what is having fantasy GMs letting him slip a bit in drafts these days.

While fellow rookie K.J. Hamler will man the slot, both Jeudy and Sutton will be outside threats. Jeudy projects to get 91 targets for 673 yards (with 3 TDs) for 142.0 PPR points next season. That would rank him as the WR50 on the year, but his ADP is the 40th-higher among wideouts right now. That makes him almost a full-round overpriced. His ADP is plummeting, though, so I'll wait a bit on Jeudy before taking him, and wouldn't draft him inside the first 10 rounds.

John Brown, Buffalo Bills

Brown is entering year seven in the NFL. There has only been one season in which he has averaged fewer than 14 yards per reception. Stefon Diggs, his new partner in crime from 2020 on, sits on the flipside of the coin with only one season averaging more than 14 yards per reception. I can extract three things from the Bills' offseason: 1) Brown will drop from No. 1 receiver to No. 2 after the addition of Diggs, 2) Brown will be used even more downfield than to this point, and 3) Brown will have more chances to thrive with Diggs taking attention away from him.

While Diggs can be counted on for 200 PPR points yearly, Brown has reached that mark only twice in his career (including 219.8 PPR last year), but that should regress a bit next year. Even with that drop (PFF is predicting 156.6 PPR points for him in 2020), Brown's current ADP has him as a prominent sleeper and clear steal at WR. He's projected as the WR42 but his ADP is a full round behind the point we should expect it to be -- and still going down daily. Get Brown before fantasy owners realize what they're passing on.

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