X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Early Summer ADP Fallers at Wide Receiver

Antonio Losada examines ADP variation of wide receivers from the start of May to the start of June and assesses their situations to find key fallers at WR in fantasy football drafts.

I am going to start this column by introducing the idea of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is, actually, a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is going off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first few rounds if you truly want him.

Low or high ADP values, though, are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, though, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is at for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the past month as we get closer to peak draft season.

In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation since the start of May leading up to June using data from FFPC drafts that have taken place in that period. Today, it's time to look at four wide receiver fallers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Wide Receivers - ADP Fallers

 

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys got who most people think was the No. 1 WR of the 2020 class in CeeDee Lamb during this past draft. The problem for Lamb, though, has more to do with the competition he'll face in a crowded Dallas offense than with his own ability. Although Lamb played mostly at the slot position in college he is expected to be used outside in the NFL with Amari Cooper taking on slot duties.

Again, Lamb is a top-tier receiver and will show it from the get-go. There is no doubt about that and the targets will be there no matter what. Even with that, PFF still gives Michael Gallup (102 targets, 177.2 PPR) and Amari Cooper (113, 204.3) better projections than Lamb's (76, 131.0). Add Ezekiel Elliott to that, and Dak Prescott not having his deal in place yet, and the concerns from fantasy GMs are a little bit more understandable. The drop in ADP is not that big, though, only slightly over one round during the past month. Lamb is still being heavily overpaid for, as he projects to be the 149th-best player overall while having an ADP of 118, for a negative ROI. Let him slide more before drafting him or entirely fade him.

 

Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

The Panthers offense isn't any less crowded than the Cowboys'. Anderson signed with Carolina but he will most probably have to be content with whatever is left for him after all of D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Christian McCaffrey eat. Will that be much? I'm not entirely sure, and fantasy GMs (via ADP) are expressing their concerns.

Anderson is a burner and a deep threat, and he will probably be used exclusively that way with Moore and Samuel getting shorter routes and passes. To be fair, Anderson's current ADP is getting into the realm of "low price, good investment" as he projects to reach 124.7 PPR points in 2020 and his value is rising daily with a steady drop in his ADP. He'll be a walking boom/bust play, but if his price plummets from this point to your draft day, consider him a great what-if acquisition.

 

Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos

As things look at the time of this writing, either Jeudy's ADP keeps falling, or he will stay as a negative ROI-play. Jeudy's situation in Denver, as a rookie, is not that bad. He will mostly have to compete with Courtland Sutton at the receiver position. Things get murkier if we factor in the backfield of Melvin Gordon II and Phillip Lindsay, both more than capable as pass-catching running backs. Perhaps that is what is having fantasy GMs letting him slip a bit in drafts these days.

While fellow rookie K.J. Hamler will man the slot, both Jeudy and Sutton will be outside threats. Jeudy projects to get 91 targets for 673 yards (with 3 TDs) for 142.0 PPR points next season. That would rank him as the WR50 on the year, but his ADP is the 40th-higher among wideouts right now. That makes him almost a full-round overpriced. His ADP is plummeting, though, so I'll wait a bit on Jeudy before taking him, and wouldn't draft him inside the first 10 rounds.

 

John Brown, Buffalo Bills

Brown is entering year seven in the NFL. There has only been one season in which he has averaged fewer than 14 yards per reception. Stefon Diggs, his new partner in crime from 2020 on, sits on the flipside of the coin with only one season averaging more than 14 yards per reception. I can extract three things from the Bills' offseason: 1) Brown will drop from No. 1 receiver to No. 2 after the addition of Diggs, 2) Brown will be used even more downfield than to this point, and 3) Brown will have more chances to thrive with Diggs taking attention away from him.

While Diggs can be counted on for 200 PPR points yearly, Brown has reached that mark only twice in his career (including 219.8 PPR last year), but that should regress a bit next year. Even with that drop (PFF is predicting 156.6 PPR points for him in 2020), Brown's current ADP has him as a prominent sleeper and clear steal at WR. He's projected as the WR42 but his ADP is a full round behind the point we should expect it to be -- and still going down daily. Get Brown before fantasy owners realize what they're passing on.

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Emery Jones Jr.

Might Be Out Until Training Camp
Kyren Williams

Hungry For More
Omarion Hampton

Thinks Chargers Can Have Dominant Backfield
Kyle Pitts

Falcons Offensive Coordinator Expects Big Jump From Kyle Pitts
Cole Ragans

Slated To Start On Monday
Blake Lynch

Chiefs Waive B.J. Thompson, Release Blake Lynch
Robbie Ouzts

Being Converted To Fullback
Yordan Alvarez

Feeling Better, Still Out On Sunday
Dallas Cowboys

Shavon Revel Making Comeback From ACL Tear
Daulton Varsho

Scratched With Back Tightness
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Back In The Lineup For Guardians
Salvador Perez

Back In Action On Sunday
Kristian Campbell

Returning On Sunday
Matthew Coronato

Signs Seven-Year Extension With Flames
Frederik Andersen

Inks Extension With Hurricanes
William Eklund

Suffers Cut Wrist
Wyatt Johnston

Makes History With Another Series-Clinching Goal
Matt Duchene

Records Two Assists In Game 7 Victory
Mikko Rantanen

Leads Stars Past Avalanche In Game 7
Kyle Larson

Has One Of The Best Cars In The Field At Texas
William Byron

Will Be Tough To Beat At Texas
Chase Elliott

A Slam-Dunk DFS Pick At Texas
Austin Cindric

Could Austin Cindric Legitimately Contend At Texas This Weekend?
Ryan Blaney

Is Worth Rostering For Texas DFS Lineups On Sunday
Joey Logano

Struggling To Find Speed At Texas
Tyler Reddick

Should Be Highly Considered For DFS At Texas This Week
Daniel Suarez

Has Been One Of The Best At Texas In Next Gen Car
Denny Hamlin

Might Have Another Quality Texas Start This Week
AJ Allmendinger

Has Shown Speed At Texas This Weekend
NASCAR

What Should Fantasy Players Do With Bubba Wallace At Texas?
Brad Keselowski

Is A Fantastic Driver For Texas DFS Lineups
Alex Bowman

May Be A Sneaky Tournament Option
Josh Berry

Could Josh Berry Be Utilized In DFS Tournaments For Texas?
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Roster Michael McDowell At Texas?
Erik Jones

Is Best Suited For DFS Tournaments At Texas
Ryan Preece

Is A Favorable DFS Option For Texas
Carson Hocevar

Wins First Pole, But Pit Crew Might Hold Him Back
Christopher Bell

DFS Players Should Stay Away From Christopher Bell
Ross Chastain

A Must-Start At Texas
Chase Briscoe

A Sneaky Option That Could Pay Great DFS Dividends
Ivica Zubac

Has A Double-Double On Saturday Night
Kawhi Leonard

Scores 22 Points In Loss To Denver
James Harden

Struggles On The Scoring End On Saturday
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Leads Denver To A Game 7 Win
Kyle Stowers

Hits Game-Winning Grand Slam
Jake Meyers

Homers Twice, Drives In Seven On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Practices Fully Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Sunday's Game 1
Mattias Ekholm

Out For Round 2
Corbin Burnes

To Skip Next Start With Shoulder Inflammation
Pavel Dorofeyev

Misses Practice, Remains Day-To-Day
Anthony Volpe

Feels Pop In Shoulder, May Undergo MRI
Sebastian Aho

Back At Practice Saturday
Mark Scheifele

A Game-Time Call For Sunday's Game 7
Ross Colton

To Remain Out For Game 7
Corey Seager

Activated From Injured List, Batting Third As Designated Hitter Saturday
Mackenzie Blackwood

Seeks To Overcome Road Struggles In Game 7
Jake Oettinger

Looks To Bounce Back Saturday
Detroit Lions

Jakobie Keeney-James Signs With Detroit
Tommy Edman

Heading To 10-Day Injured List
Savion Williams

Packers Sign Third-Round Rookie Savion Williams
Jackson Merrill

To Rehab At Double-A, Expected To Return Monday
Philadelphia Eagles

Mac McWilliams Signs Rookie Deal With Eagles
Joe Noteboom

Baltimore Adds Joe Noteboom
Merrill Kelly

Still Dealing With Cramping
Fernando Tatis Jr.

In Saturday's Lineup
New York Mets

Mets, Cardinals Postponed On Saturday
John Williams

Packers Sign John Williams, Five Other Draft Picks
José Ramírez

Jose Ramirez Out On Saturday
Jalen Ramsey

Ravens A Candidate To Trade For Jalen Ramsey?
Amari Cooper

Cowboys Could Be Best Fit For Amari Cooper
Triston Casas

Diagnosed With Ruptured Left Patellar Tendon
Coby Mayo

Promoted To Major Leagues
Yordan Alvarez

Scratched With Hand Inflammation
Clarke Schmidt

Scratched On Saturday With Side Soreness
Miro Heiskanen

Unavailable For Game 7
Jason Robertson

Will Not Play In Game 7
Connor Hellebuyck

Continues To Struggle Away From Home
Cole Perfetti

Nets A Power-Play Goal In Game 6 Loss
Jordan Binnington

Outstanding At Home Again
Cam Fowler

Notches 10th Postseason Point
Philip Broberg

Records Two Points In Friday's Win
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Sign 17 Undrafted Free Agents
Elijah Arroyo

Recovered From Knee Injury
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Add Nine Rookie Free Agents
Philadelphia Eagles

Jihaad Campbell Not Taking Part In Rookie Minicamp
Jerome Ford

Agrees To Pay Cut
Green Bay Packers

Jaire Alexander Not Participating In Voluntary Offseason Work
Christian Watson

Working Hard In Recovery From Torn ACL
Damian Lillard

Undergoes Successful Surgery
Sebastian Aho

Misses Practice For Personal Reasons
Deiveson Figueiredo

Returns To Action
Cory Sandhagen

Set For UFC Des Moines Main Event
Bo Nickal

Set For Co-Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

An Underdog At UFC Des Moines
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks To Win Second Consecutive Fight
Santiago Ponzinibbio

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Daniel Marcos

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Montel Jackson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Cameron Smotherman

Set For His Second UFC Bout
Serhiy Sidey

A Favorite At UFC Des Moines
Mason Jones

Set To Open Up UFC Des Moines Main Card
Jeremy Stephens

Returns For UFC Des Moines
Isaiah Stewart

Out On Thursday
Amen Thompson

Fills Stat Sheet In Game 5 Victory
Stephen Curry

Held To 13 Points Wednesday Night
Anthony Edwards

Struggles To Score In Series-Clincher
Rudy Gobert

Comes Up Big In Game 5 Victory
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Battles Back Issue In Game 5 Loss
LeBron James

Undecided On Future
Derrick Jones Jr.

Fine For Thursday
Maxi Kleber

Available For Lakers Debut Wednesday
Jonathan Kuminga

Out With An Illness
Jimmy Butler III

Ready To Play Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

In Danger Of Missing Another Game Thursday
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Build Off Last Week's Runner-Up Finish
Gary Woodland

Could See Success At CJ CUP
Cam Davis

Making First Appearance At TPC Craig Ranch
Sam Burns

Could Be Due For A Great Week At TPC Craig Ranch
Patrick Rodgers

A Solid Value Play At TPC Craig Ranch
Jamal Murray

Explodes For 43 Points In Game 5
Carson Young

Looking To Recapture Form At CJ Cup
Jayson Tatum

Fires In 35 Points In Series-Clincher
Matt McCarty

An Intriguing Value Play At CJ Cup
Will Zalatoris

Searching For Putting Form At CJ Cup
Sam Stevens

A Risky Play With Upside At CJ Cup
PGA

Sungjae Im Riding Momentum Into CJ Cup
Ben Griffin

Looking To Stay Hot After First Career Win
Jake Knapp

Looking For More Success At TPC Craig Ranch
Mackenzie Hughes

Is An Interesting Option At CJ Cup
Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Plays Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59th At Corales Puntacana Championship
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF