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RosterWatch provides dynasty football league news and updates all offseason, including a weekly look at value risers and fallers. This time, we look at WR Tee Higgins, TE Robert Tonyan, and TE Evan Engram.
Each week, this column provides you with movement in the RosterWatch Dynasty Rankings. We highlight players who have gained or lost value recently.
Tracking these player value trends assists dynasty players in identifying opportunities to improve their rosters, as the landscape of the market is ever-changing.
This column was written by Alan Seslowsky (@alanseslowksy) and provided to RotoBaller by our friends at RosterWatch.
Editor's Note: Steer clear of costly draft mistakes with RotoBaller’s expert Fantasy Football Bust analysis. We break down overvalued players, potential letdowns, and risky ADPs to avoid, so you can build a smarter, safer roster.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Age: 22
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank QB26
Updated Rank WR20
Tee Higgins was the 33rd overall pick in the 2020 NFL draft. The 33rd pick is technically a second-round selection, but it appears the Bengals got a first-round talent. 2020 was a deep and richly talented WR class, and Higgins was a polarizing prospect.
From a fantasy perspective, Higgins finished as the WR28 overall. If we excuse his low snap percentages in Weeks 1 and 2 and just measure the production from Weeks 3-16, Higgins ranks as the WR16! Of course, we can cherry-pick many players' best weeks to sugarcoat the outlook, however, the advanced stats bear out what RosterWatch and many of you saw in the actual games. It is reasonable to assume Tee Higgins may have finished even better if not for Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury in Week 11.
The case to get aggressive on Higgins in your dynasty startup draft is easy to see. He just turned 22 in January. AJ Green will likely not be back with the team, and some drafters may be hesitant to invest in Higgins with Joe Burrow a longshot to recover from his injury by week one. RosterWatch has moved Higgins up to WR20, but we can potentially foresee taking him as high as WR15. In Superflex drafts that is right around the end of the fourth round.
Robert Tonyan (TE, GB)
Age: 26
Movement: Rising
Previous Rank TE12
Updated Rank TE8
For years Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay have been cycling through TEs. Over a decade ago The Packers thought they had the next superstar TE in Jermichael Finley, who flashed for a bit before fizzling out with a neck injury. Other names like Andrew Quarless, Richard Rodgers, Martellus Bennet, and post-peak Jimmy Graham all disappointed for fantasy.
Heading into 2020, second-year player Jace Sternberger was on “sleeper” lists across the fantasy industry. Tonyan was not even considered a major breakout candidate heading into this season. But, he finished as the TE4 in 2020, and is undoubtedly one of the few players inside Aaron Rodgers circle of trust. Tonyan should remain a top option at TE as long as Rodgers is the starting QB; a likely projection for 2021. The overarching question for Tonyan’s dynasty value is just how much longer will Rodgers play.
Evan Engram (TE, NYG)
Age: 26
Movement: Falling
Previous Rank TE7
Updated Rank TE11
Evan Engram had a disappointing 2020 fantasy season. His 2020 ADP was TE5, and he finished as TE14. A lot went wrong with the New York Giants in 2020, but simply stated Engram underperformed. What makes Engram’s final output more concerning is that he played all 16 games and was fourth in targets among TEs (109) but still ranked outside of the TE12 cutline.
Engram ranked fourth in dropped passes, flubbing eight balls in 2020. Keep in mind, tight ends run shorter, more high-percentage routes than wide receivers, so they are expected to have better catch rates. Engram, between drops and other malfunctions, has not been able to get on track. He is a talented athlete and should only be drafted if he falls to an extreme value.
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