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John Brown has struggled in recent seasons, due to injury and offensive changes. Richard King takes a look at his value in dynasty leagues for the 2019 fantasy football season. Should you buy him or sell him as a long-term prospect?
When it comes to dynasty football leagues, you know there is no offseason. Without the in-season worries of setting lineups and waiver wire claims, dynasty league enthusiasts can focus their efforts on making trades to improve their teams and preparing for rookie drafts. Offseason narratives can be difficult to navigate, but we are here to help!
Today's column will take a look at one of the Buffalo Bills' recent wide receiver signings, John Brown. We will start off with an overview of Brown's recent history and then take a look at analyzing his value in dynasty leagues. Then, we will propose some possible trades involving Brown to give you some ideas for either buying or selling him.
For all discussions regarding their dynasty value, let's assume you are playing in a 12-team, one-quarterback dynasty league with 0.5 PPR scoring. As always, player values can shift quickly in dynasty leagues so be sure to stay on top of the NFL news cycle when proposing trades.
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Overview
John Brown
Team: Buffalo Bills
College: Pittsburg State
Height/Weight: 5'11", 178 pounds
2014 NFL Draft: Round 3, Pick 91 overall
Brown started his career in the best way imaginable, catching his first touchdown in the first game, following that up in Week 4 by catching multiple touchdowns in one game. Brown finished the season with 48 receptions for 696 yards and five touchdowns, due in part to the offense failing apart when quarterback Carson Palmer finished his season early.
In 2015, Brown was a great contributor on offense finishing the season with 65 receptions for 1,003 yards and seven touchdowns. 2016 was the first of a few injury-plagued seasons for Brown, which has hurt his fantasy value in recent years. In Brown's 2016 & 2017 seasons he finished with fewer receptions, yards and touchdowns than in 2015, due in part to the injuries to his hamstrings, quadriceps, back and toe injuries. Combined with that were the concerns over the sickle cell trait that Brown has.
Brown left the Cardinals in 2018, signing for the Baltimore Ravens on a one-year $5 million contract. Brown started the season well when the offense was led by quarterback Joe Flacco. In fact, before the Ravens bye week when the team went with rookie Lamar Jackson, Brown had 34 receptions for 601 yards and four touchdowns. Those statistics include some games that Brown struggled to get traction. Brown ended up finishing the season with 42 receptions for a team-high 715 yards and five touchdowns.
This offseason John Brown was on the move again, signing for the Buffalo Bills on a three-year, $27 million contract. The Bills certainly weren't the greatest offense last season, but they have strengthened the offensive line for quarterback Josh Allen and in adding slot receiver Cole Beasley too, they are clearly trying to kick-start their offense for 2018.
Dynasty Value
Brown has a long term deal in Buffalo and now has a young quarterback who he can build a rapport with. He has a chance to recapture his 2015 form, especially if he is able to get downfield where he has been more effective. Currently, according to Fantasy Football Calculator, Brown is not being drafted within the first 15 rounds of dynasty startup leagues.
Possible Trades
The issue that faces Brown is that he has been inconsistent in his recent seasons, injury-plagued in 2016 and 2017, while a mid-season change in offense meant that his 2018 season was not as effective as he would have hoped. Brown is currently going undrafted, and so selling him is really not an option- as you are unlikely to be able to turn him into anything useful.
I would look to buy him for a low amount, I think that in certain leagues you could pick him up for next to nothing- a late round pick swap for example.
Conclusion
Brown clearly has the ability to be an effective receiver. However, there are question marks that mean that his value is unknown. If I could buy him for nothing or pick him up from waivers, then I would certainly do that. This type of low-stakes gamble is a great opportunity for fantasy owners. Brown's role and the Bills' offense will be more clearly defined in the early weeks of the season and you can cut bait if he ends up struggling.
