July 31, 2017

Matt Terelle recommends veteran NFL players who are available at a discounted ADP in dynasty leagues. These players could be values in startup dynasty drafts.

Hey there Rotoballers! Today we are taking a look dynasty startup drafts and some veteran players who still have fantasy values but are going later in drafts. Taking part in a startup dynasty draft is a much different beast than drafting for a regular redraft league. Age plays a big part in the valuation of players which causes normally valuable veterans to fall much lower in a startup than they normally would go.

A recommended draft for a startup will focus on getting younger players but that doesn't mean you need to draft all young guys. There's merit in adding some proven veterans to your roster, especially if the value is right and you have hopes to compete for a championship in the first year of the league. Not all dynasty players will take this approach as some prefer to skew extremely youth-heavy. It is my preference to mix in some useful veterans with two or three good seasons left in the tank.

At the end of each player's paragraph I include some other players who are going earlier in drafts than the player I outlined. This is not to say I like one player over another in a vacuum, it is simply pointing out value where I see it in startup drafts. Note: All dynasty ADP data comes from www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com and assumes you are playing in a 12-team, PPR dynasty league.

Quarterback

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals

ADP: 156.9 (Pick 14.01), QB21

Dalton never seems to get his due in fantasy circles - dynasty, redraft, daily, it doesn't matter. Perhaps it's the Bengals' yearly struggles in the postseason which sticks in fantasy owners' minds but Dalton is actually a very solid fantasy quarterback. He is still just 29 and is coming off a season which saw him throw for 4.206 yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. Obviously, throwing just 18 touchdowns is not going to get the job done in fantasy leagues, but keep in mind he lost three of his top weapons for large chunks of last season. A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard both played in just 10 games and Tyler Eifert suited up for just eight. Dalton is in store for some serious positive regression in the touchdown-throwing department. If you choose to wait on a quarterback in your startup draft, targeting Dalton is a solid strategy.

I prefer Dalton over the likes of: Carson Wentz (QB11), Ben Roethlisberger (QB15), Ryan Tannehill (QB18), Eli Manning (QB20).

Running Backs

Bilal Powell, New York Jets

ADP: 132.9 (Pick 12.01), RB43

Powell's value in dynasty leagues is way out of whack. Sure, he's 28, which means he's getting up there for a running back, but he still offers excellent value. First off, Powell's ADP means you will be able to get him around the 12th round of a dynasty startup draft. At that point in the draft, it's worth taking a shot on an older running back who has RB2 upside. Getting a running back with his upside is a godsend for dynasty owners who load up on young wide receivers in the early rounds of drafts. Some fantasy owners may be scared off by Matt Forte, who is still listed as the team's starting running back. Forte is also 31 with 2,253 carries under his belt heading into his tenth NFL season. Powell outplayed Forte last season and this will end up being a timeshare. Powell operates best in a PPR league as he's caught 105 passes over the past two seasons.

Danny Woodhead, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 152.5 (Pick 13.08), RB46

Woodhead is in a role similar to that of Powell in that he's a skilled pass-catcher who will have a large role for his team, despite being part of a timeshare. While Woodhead is entering his age-32 season he's still relatively fresh, having only taken 503 carries in his 93 career games. Expect Woodhead to vacuum up targets in a Ravens offense which has quietly become one of the most pass-heavy units in the league. The loss of Kenneth Dixon for the year only reinforces Woodhead's status in Baltimore as the primary playmaker in the backfield. He should serve as a rock-solid RB2 for the next couple seasons and can be drafted in the middle rounds.

I prefer Powell/Woodhead over: Kenneth Dixon (RB22), C.J. Anderson (RB23), Rob Kelley (RB25), Latavius Murray (RB27), Dion Lewis (RB29), Doug Martin (RB41).

Wide Receivers

Jordan Matthews, Philadelphia Eagles

ADP: 69.8 (Pick 6.10), WR33

It isn't all that long ago that Matthews was being drafted as a strong WR1 in dynasty leagues. In both 2015 and 2016 startup drafts, Matthews was being drafted in the third round. Now he comes at quite a discount as his ADP places him at the end of the sixth round. I've seen him fall even further than that in startups that I've participated in this offseason. Most fantasy owners are scared off by the signing of Alshon Jeffery but keep in mind, the focus in dynasty is more than just the upcoming season. Jeffery is on a one-year deal, gets hurt often, and will most certainly sign with the team willing to offer him the most money when he becomes a free agent again in 2018. Matthews turned in his least productive NFL season in 2016 but he was also moved out of his comfort zone in the slot and to the outside. This year he will be back in the slot where his combination of 4.46 speed and a 6'3" frame makes him a nightmare for shorter slot corners to try to cover. Not only do I love where Matthews is going in startup drafts but he is also one of my top buy-low targets in existing dynasty leagues this offseason.

Jeremy Maclin, Baltimore Ravens

ADP: 115.3 (Pick 10.07), WR52

Many fantasy drafters are sleeping on Maclin who enjoyed one of the biggest situation upgrades in the NFL in the offseason. Cut from a ho-hum Alex Smith-led Chiefs passing offense, Maclin landed on a Ravens team that really needed to upgrade their receiving corps. Two of the Ravens' top three most targeted pass catchers, Steve Smith and Dennis Pitta, both retired in the offseason, taking with them a combined 228 targets in 2016. Maclin is expected to fill Smith's role as the team's slot receiver, meaning he will be peppered with targets by Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco, assuming his injury doesn't prove serious. Maclin is only two years removed from a season where he caught 87 balls for 1,088 yards and eight touchdowns. He should have no trouble eclipsing those numbers in a pass-first Ravens offense in 2017. Despite being around seemingly forever, Maclin is still just 29 and should have at least 2-3 good seasons left in his body.

I prefer Matthews/Maclin over: Jarvis Landry (WR19), Donte Moncrief (WR22), Mike Williams (WR23), Kelvin Benjamin (WR24), Kevin White (WR29), Tyreek Hill (WR30).

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 130.4 (Pick 11.10), TE14

Quick, who was the TE2 in PPR leagues last season? That's right, it was Rudolph, who finished the year with 83 receptions for 840 yards and seven touchdowns. It is strange to see him coming off the board as just the TE14 in dynasty startup drafts. The Vikings offense should be improved this season with Sam Bradford now having a full year to acclimate himself to the team and Pat Shurmur having the whole offseason to install his offense after taking over midseason in 2016 when Norv Turner suddenly quit. Bradford completed 71.6% of his pass attempts last season, setting the NFL record for single-season completion percentage, edging out Drew Brees' 2011 season which saw him complete 71.2% of his attempts. Many of Bradford's attempts were of the short variety, which benefits tight ends such as Rudolph. He may not eclipse last season's impressive stat line but he will finish as a TE1 this year and, as we've seen, the position has become more of a crapshoot than ever once you get past Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce. If you aren't going to take one of those two, it's hard to justify spending a valuable pick on someone else when Rudolph can be picked up so much later.

I prefer Rudolph over: Jordan Reed (TE3), Zach Ertz (TE7).

More 2017 Dynasty League Strategy