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Hello RotoBallers and welcome back to Break The Slate! Our season-long quest to find the best plays at each position for every DraftKings Main Slate has now evolved into a postseason venture, and in this article, we'll be discussing the best plays of the Divisional Round which will take place across Saturday and Sunday.
Instead of 10+ games to choose from, we're dealing with just four matchups this weekend. Obviously, we'll need to think outside of the box in order to avoid our lineups being heavily duplicated, while still targeting players with tournament-winning upside.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected DK points and ownership, overall upside/talent levels, and opportunity, as well as factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available on DK for the NFL Playoff Divisional Round slate. Also, be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups – let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Divisional Round DFS Picks
Patrick Mahomes - JAX @ KC ($8,000)
On top of being perhaps the most talented passer of his generation, Patrick Mahomes just so happens to play in an Andy Reid-designed offense that's as smart as it is functional. The Chiefs will throw at the start of games, at the end of games, when they are up, and when they are behind. It's no surprise that they grade out first in the NFL in Pass Offense DVOA, with Mahomes finishing the year as the league's highest-scoring DraftKings option.
This Jacksonville matchup is one Mahomes and the Chiefs have already faced once this year. He threw for 331 yards and four TDs against the Jags in Week 10. With a defensive unit that ranked 30th in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA this season, Jacksonville shouldn't put up much more of a fight this time around.
Joe Burrow - CIN @ BUF ($6,500)
Without actually going back and counting, I'd be willing to bet that Joe Burrow was written up more than any QB this year in this article. Ok, so I'm a fan. But if lovin' me some Joey B. is wrong, I don't wanna be right.
Burrow's frequent inclusion here isn't because I'm a fan boy, but rather because, despite carrying a DFS ceiling that rivals anyone at the position, Burrow is always available to us at a DK price point just below the top tier of QBs. That's again the case for the Divisional Round Main Slate, as the Bengals' signal-caller is $1k+ cheaper than the likes of Mahomes, Allen, and Hurts.
Despite a tough matchup against a capable Buffalo Bills pass defense, I'll be glad to take the salary - and ownership - discount with the talented passer that's topped 30 DK points on three occasions this season.
DraftKings Running Backs - Divisional Round DFS Picks
Christian McCaffrey - DAL @ SF ($8,000)
While we want to differentiate our lineups on short slates such as this one, we must also be mindful of raw point accumulation. For that reason, Christian McCaffrey is perhaps the strongest point-to-dollar play on the slate, as his salary has been cut to $8k from the usual $9k-ish price point.
CMC has been a volume monster in close games and is averaging just over 20 touches per game over the last two months. He comes in off a 17-touch, 146-total-yard outing in the Wild Card round and should once again play a three-down role against a Dallas defensive unit that grades out well statistically but allowed just over six yards per target to RBs in the passing game this season.
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Divisional Round DFS Picks
CeeDee Lamb - DAL @ SF ($7,300)
Many DFS players will want to, understandably, shy away from a ferocious San Francisco 49ers defense. However, the Niners have been susceptible to opposing wideouts over the back half of the season. San Fran allowed the fifth-most fantasy points in the NFL to opposing slot receivers, while relinquishing the league's sixth-most yards and seventh-most TDs to the WR position.
Playing the season without Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb has been the clear-cut alpha in this 'Boys receiving corps. Lamb's role is reflected in his consistent box score production, as he's crossed 100-yards receiving in three of Dallas' last five games and reeled in at least one TD catch in three of their last four.
Christian Kirk - JAX @ KC ($6,000)
It isn't tough to envision the Jacksonville offense being forced to the air in this matchup against the explosive Kansas City Chiefs and Christian Kirk will likely be a large beneficiary of that potential game script. Kirk already dosed the Chiefs for 105 yards and two scores on nine catches when the teams met in Week 10.
That performance wasn't a fluke, as KC has bled points to opposing receivers in the slot, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points in the NFL. Kirk will likely be the beneficiary of the Chiefs' pass rush forcing Trevor Lawrence to get the ball out quickly and he could easily see 10+ targets in this expected game environment.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Divisional Round DFS Picks
Travis Kelce - JAX @ KC ($7,700)
Like Christian McCaffrey at the RB position, Travis Kelce is simply a "let's grab all the raw points we can on this short slate" type of play. He's been head and shoulders above everyone else at the position for years and that's again been the case in 2022, as he closed the regular season leading all tight ends in targets, receptions, receiving yards, and TDs. Kelce scored more than 100 DraftKings points more than his closest competitor at the TE position this year.
It's not as if he needs matchup help to be in play, but he gets it nonetheless this week, as Jacksonville has been destroyed by opposing TEs. The Jags rank dead last in the NFL in positional DVOA against tight ends and have allowed the league's third-most receiving yards to the position. Kelce will feast this week.
Dawson Knox - CIN @ BUF ($3,800)
Finally hitting his stride after a sluggish start to the year, Dawson Knox has now reeled in TD catches in Buffalo's last five games.
Having established himself as a consistent red zone target for Josh Allen, Knox is a terrific way to save salary at the TE position this week against the Bengals in a game that could easily turn into an offensive shootout. Cincinnati is one of only eight teams in the NFL to relinquish over 1,000 receiving yards to the TE position this season.
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