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Zach's top DraftKings NBA DFS picks for today, Friday, 11/11/24. His favorite daily fantasy basketball lineup sleepers and value picks for DraftKings DFS.
It was another successful Sunday, as I had my second GPP takedown in three days. I have to watch myself tonight to make sure I don't put more in play than I usually would (bankroll management, baby), but we have a fun five-game slate to break down tonight. For FanDuel picks, click here for Thunder Dan's breakdown!
Chet Holmgren's hip injury yesterday is going to really tell the tale of how to attack this slate. Chet is out for 8-10 weeks with a hip fracture and the complete lack of big men on OKC's roster poses a problem with how they'll attack Ivica Zubac.
We have some other tight rotations to get into, so let's see the picks for today. Be sure to follow us at RotoBaller, and hop into the Discord as we're discussing all facets of DFS all day long! Good luck tonight!
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DraftKings NBA DFS Core Picks
Brandon Ingram, NO - PG/SF ($8,600)
Brandon Ingram officially starts his run as the alpha of the Pelicans for the foreseeable future. Zion Williamson is out indefinitely, joining C.J. McCollum, Dejounte Murray, Herb Jones, and Jordan Hawkins on the sidelines. As a result, we're going to see a very concentrated offense against the Nets tonight.
In this scenario, Ingram has a 38.9% usage rate and a 38.6% assist rate. Before the recent blowout at the hands of Orlando, Ingram has been over 31 minutes in every game so far this season, and averaging over 34 in his last four contests.
With a DK average of 39.6 PPG, Ingram is a rock-solid cash play on a short slate, with a 50-point upside if the game stays close.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, OKC - PG ($10,000)
Thunder C Chet Holmgren only got through five minutes of action before injuring his hip. He was quickly ruled out in the second quarter and we have to imagine that his status tonight is more on the doubtful side than questionable.
Gilgeous-Alexander is having another elite season for the first-place Thunder, averaging 26-6-6 along with 1.4 steals per game. With Holmgren off the court this year, SGA has a 38% usage rate in 119 minutes, and a full game of this should extend his upside into the high 50s-low 60s.
It's not the best matchup against the Clippers who are fifth in defensive efficiency, but these two teams are top ten in pace and the score should be competitive (OKC -5).
https://twitter.com/SICscore/status/1855791940178256070
Alperen Sengun, C - HOU ($7,900)
Death, taxes, and centers against Washington. After a 2023 season where the Wizards ranked dead last in rebounding rate, they're 28th so far this year and allowing the seventh most FPPG to opposing centers. Enter the Goon...
Alperen Sengun is driving the production in the Houston offense, especially with Fred VanVleet struggling in the early going. Sengun is averaging 41 DK PPG, which is just over 5x his DK salary. This game carries blowout risk (HOU -14), so fading Sengun in GPP might make sense, but he should have no problem getting there in cash even if it's over three quarters.
Others Under Consideration: Victor Wembanyama - C ($10,500), De'Aaron Fox - PG ($8,500), Donovan Mitchell - PG/SG ($8,200)
DraftKings NBA DFS Tournament Pivots
James Harden, LAC - PG ($9,800)
OKC has the best defense in the league, and it's not remotely close. Their 94.7 team defensive rating is almost nine full points ahead of the second-place team (Golden State), and Harden is almost certainly going to get the individual matchup of Lu Dort, making his job difficult.
So why are going here? On a five-game slate, ownership is going to be more condensed than usual, and it's possible people will shy away from Harden so much that he'll garner single-digit ownership. This is significant for someone who is averaging almost a triple-double and over 50 DK PPG.
The (possible) lack of Chet Holmgren in the interior should help Harden's drive success rate, and he has the prospect of being the highest-scoring player on the slate despite the most difficult matchup.
Oh hey, there's that GPP win from last night!
Evan Mobley, CLE - PF/C ($7,600)
The highest-scoring fantasy player on the 11-0 Cavs has not been Donovan Mitchell or Darius Garland. It's very quietly been Evan Mobley, averaging 38.7 DK PPG, three full notches higher than Mitchell. Early indications are that ownership will flock to Mitchell and Garland in this game, making Mobley an amazing pivot if that holds.
This is the highest-scoring game of the night by over 11 points with a 237.5 O/U, and the Cavs being on the road should keep the blowout risk in check. Cleveland is fourth in pace and Chicago is first which should lead to scoring opportunities aplenty.
The Bulls have also allowed the second most blocks per game, and Mobley is once again contributing well in that category (1.8 blocks per game).
https://twitter.com/cavs/status/1855445644493590757
Others Under Consideration: Damontas Sabonis - C ($9,500), Ivica Zubac - C ($8,000), Cam Thomas - SG/SF ($7,400), Fred VanVleet - PG ($6,800)
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DraftKings NBA DFS Value Picks
Jose Alvarado, NOP - PG ($6,200)
Brandon Ingram is the obvious go-to for the short-handed Pelicans, but it's Jose Alvarado who has been the biggest beneficiary from a rate standpoint this season. With all the players sidelined this year, Alvarado has enjoyed a team-high usage boost of 9.4%, bringing his actual rate to 28.6%.
Over the past two games, Alvarado has played 35 minutes in each contest and averaged 43.5 DK PPG. He's shooting an impressive 44% from beyond the arc, and his role should continue to be sky-high for the immediate future. DK is being slow to price him up, so take the gift while we can.
Brandon Boston Jr., NOP - SG/SF ($5,700)
Brandon Boston is the Pelican that DK has targeted the most in its pricing algorithm. He's gone from $4,400 last game to $5,700 tonight, but he's still more than cheap enough to put into your cash or GPP lineups. Over the past three games, Boston has played 37, 38, and 38 minutes and taken 43 shots.
Brooklyn has been far more vulnerable to the three since trading away Mikal Bridges, allowing the fifth-most 3PA and the seventh-highest 3PT%
Isaiah Joe, OKC - SG ($3,600)
This is a pure speculation play at a low price tag. Isaiah Joe started the second half in place of Chet Holmgren, and if he does so again he's a fine value play you can use to fit multiple studs into your lineups on a short slate.
Joe has been playing a regular role anyway for the Thunder, with consistent minutes in the low- to mid-20s. If he starts again we may see him get up near 30, which is more than enough to pay off his price tag even though he's a low-usage guy.
If you're aiming for a 5x floor in cash games, Joe only needs 18 DK points to pay that tag off. Anything else is gravy.
Others Under Consideration: Lu Dort - SG/SF ($4,100), Nic Claxton - C ($5,700), Stephon Castle - PG/SG ($4,900), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl - PF/C ($4,500)
Today's Top NBA DFS Game Stack
Cavaliers at Bulls (237.5 O/U)
This is the game to target on a short slate, as it laps the field as far as both having the highest total on the slate as well as featuring two of the fastest teams in the NBA. Cleveland is fourth in pace factor and Chicago is tops in the league.
All of Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and Jarrett Allen are in play, and the best way to stack them is to see how ownership settles in. Generally, I would recommend a max-one of Allen/Mobley and a max-one of Mitchell/Garland, but you can play a little fast and loose with that on a shorter slate.
Caris LeVert is also playable with a 30-minute role off the bench as Chicago allows the third most bench points in the league.
For Chicago, Nikola Vucevic meets the tough Cleveland interior, so it's best to stick with the wings. Zack LaVine once again has a questionable tag, but it looks more like he's probable. This muddies up the usage a bit more, but it also spreads out the ownership enough that you can gain leverage a bit easier by picking the right one.
All four Chicago stars have a very similar usage rate (in the 22-24% range), but Josh Giddey's 36% assist rate far outstrips the rest. Even with fewer minutes, he possesses the best per-dollar upside of the four.
My Favorite NBA DFS Picks for Today
Here is where I leave you with some of my favorites.
- My favorite OVERALL play on the slate: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
- My favorite CASH play on the slate: Brandon Ingram
- My favorite GPP play on the slate: James Harden
- My favorite VALUE play: Jose Alvarado
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