RADIO
Last UFC event before the Dia de los Muertos celebration in Mexico, or just plain Halloween for you all out there reading from the United States of A. Dana is a clever man, and that's why he waited until this point in the calendar year to give us a very scary event, because the card looks terrifyingly bad or at least not as great as one would expect. That said, we're coming off a two-titles-on-the-line numbered event in UFC 280, so maybe we should temper our demands a bit, shouldn't we?
Kattar and Allen lead the way and will be the ones putting on the finale show next Saturday. At the end of the day, they are both ranked in the top 6 of the Featherweight division so while this won't involve the belt directly it will definitely impact who gets the next chance at lifting it. Of course, that's all this card has to it. Sad, cold world.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 63: Kattar vs. Allen on 10/29/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Calvin Kattar, $8000 - vs. Arnold Allen
Kattar leads this fight and he is (at least as Dana has laid this thing out) pegged to win the bout against Allan. Are we sure that should be the projection, even on paper? Kattar is fighting for his 12th time this weekend compared to Allen's 10th, so that's kinda balanced between the two.
Kattar has done so in two fewer years, though, being much more active than Allen, who first debuted back in June of 2015. Of course, Allen comes with a perfect 9-0 UFC record having won in all possible ways--one KO (his most recent victory last March), two submissions, and five decisions adorn his resume. Kattar is a much shakier fighter in the UFC with a 3-2 record since the start of 2020.
While Allen boasts an immaculate all-wins record, it's come by way of defeating lesser fighters more often than not: five of the nine victories he achieved against below-50th-percentile DKFP per fight. He's boosted his profile of late with wins against 82nd+ percentile fighters (including KO'ing Dan Hooker).
Kattar has faced three 92nd+ percentile fighters in his last three fights, and Dan Ige (82nd) in the one prior to those getting out of that span with a 2-2 record and gaudy numbers. Katter excels at volume striking with more than 10+ SSA per minute in all of his fights since Apr. 2018 and he's reached 15 and 16 SSA/min in his last two. Arnold Allen is light years below that average and it's not that he can do it so easily on the mat, either.
The record will lead you to bet on Allen without regard for a proper analysis. Digging deeper, though, Kattar has been the one getting reasonable results against much tougher opponents in four consecutive 25-minute fights. Same floor, with a quite higher ceiling for Kattar here.
DraftKings MMA Welterweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Max Griffin, $8800 - vs. Tim Means
Tim Means is about to make near-history by joining a 26-fighter club of artists with 25+ fights inside the Octagon since the advent of the promotion all the way back in the 90s. He will do so by battling Max Griffin, who has stepped into the cage barely half of those times (13) in the past six years.
Looking at the most recent runs of results from both fighters, Means enters the weekend with a record of 3-2 since the start of 2020... which is the same as Griffin's 3-2 in the same span. The difference between them, though, is the fact that Griffin has two KOs to his favor in that run while Means has actually lost two fights early via submission (all other fights ending in decisions for both fighters).
Looking at the striking numbers, Means has lost a step of late dropping from an average of 11+ SSA/min to no more than 7.1 in the past two fights (he didn't attempt even 100 in any of those two). Griffin has four fights with an average of 8+ SSA/min including three above 11 SSA/min. He's attempted at least 123 in those three, and in the one he didn't it was because that bout finished with a first-round (2:20 min) KO for him.
Griffin is the less experienced fighter but he's looked hella solid of late and has a slightly higher flor with upside for a KO that would add wood to his fantasy fire. Means submitted one foe in 2019 but other than that his most-recent early victory came all the way back in Aug. 2016. I have to bet on Griffin here.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tresean Gore, $7500 - vs. Josh Fremd
The classic fight of losers. Fremd and Gore have both yet to win a fight in the UFC boasting 0-1 and 0-2 records respectively. Truth be told, they just debuted no more than eight months ago at most and they fought at just 28 years old, so there is still plenty of time ahead of them so they can fix their wrongs.
One of them will do starting this weekend when his fist inevitably gets raised by the end of Vegas 63. It's hard to know who will be that man, though, considering their past. Both fighters had to endure very tough opponents in their first fights in the UFC, though, facing fighters ranked in the 87th percentile or better in DKFP per fight including a 97th one in Bryan Battle (vs. Gore in his debut).
Fremd and gore are 100% and 67% on their 1 and 3 takedowns attempted, but the striking has been rather mediocre if not putrid from both men. In their two fights (one each) that went the full 15-minute distance, none attempted even 100 SSA and only Gore broke the 50-SSL barrier with 54 landed blows to Fremd's 31-of-54.
Gore reached the higher DKFP score in his loss against Battle with 38.5 fantasy points while Fremd stayed put at 25.5 in his. This is a tossup but judging from those recent results inside the Octagon Gore is the better bet here.
DraftKings MMA Light Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Dustin Jacoby, $8300 - vs. Khalil Rountree Jr.
The UFC, ruthless as it is, released Jacoby after he started his career with two consecutive defeats... all the way back in 2011-12! Eight years later the UFC came calling Jacoby's name once more and the native from Colorado hit the UFC running: he is 6-0-1 since re-signing with the promo and has won four consecutive bouts with all seven taking place within the past 24 months.
Rountree Jr. has been around forever but on a much steadier basis and never leaving the Octagon for more than 16 months, never getting released such as Jacoby was. Rountree, though, hasn't been either as active as Jacoby of late or as successful. Rountree is 2-1 since the start of 2021 and 4-3 in his most recent fights getting back to 2018.
These two won't give you much grappling or mat-based action as their takedown numbers suck or are just not there at all. It is a brawlers, strike-exchanging affair. On that front, Jacoby is the much better proposition on a per-minute basis as he's averaged a ridiculous 14 SSA/min since coming back in 2020 compared to Rountree's already-high 11.6 SSA/min in his 2021+ fights.
Both men have KO prowess and are coming off one (Jacoby) or two consecutive (Rountree) such victories. Consider both to have the same ceiling (if the KO happens) with Jacoby carrying the higher floor as he puts on larger volume of strikes and can land the odd takedown.
