RADIO
Happy Holidays to all! We have a tidy little five-game slate on Christmas Day, kicking off with the Hawks-Knicks game starting at 12:00 PM CT. There are still a ton of players who will be missing their national spotlight on the holiday, including Kevin Durant, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Clint Capela, Derrick Rose, Andrew Wiggins, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and more. Giannis and Harden are tracking to make their returns, though, and Curry will be out there in a tough matchup on the road against the Suns. There's still a bunch of star power to be had on this slate, and the giant list of inactives means that we'll have plenty of value to fit them into our lineups.
Instead of meticulously trying to comb through the rest of the myriad of injury and "health and safety protocols" issues in play, just be sure to check out our NBA Injury Roundup as well as NBA Player News for updated information.
This article will provide you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 12/25/21. Remember to monitor injury news as the slate can completely change before lineups lock.
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Guards - DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
James Harden - PG/SG, BKN vs. LAL ($10,700 DK, $10,200 FD)
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you: the most obvious play on this slate. Harden will be making his return from the NBA's health and safety protocols tonight, and he's one of the most appealing high-priced targets as his potential ceiling is through the roof in this spot. First off, the Nets will be without Durant, Irving, Aldridge, Edwards, Thomas, Duke Jr., and Harris. Harden averages an absurd 37.6% usage rate and 1.74 FPTS/min with those players off the floor. Second, the matchup is as top-notch as a matchup can get. The Lakers allow the third-most FPPG to opposing PG's and the fourth-most FPPG to opposing SG's on the year. They're allowing the fourth-most FPPG to SG's over their last seven games as well, which correlates with the absence of rim-protector Anthony Davis. Harden is going to be able to do whatever he wants here and with this game having the highest implied total and the fastest projected pace, he's my favorite stud on the slate and it's not particularly close.
Gary Payton II - SG, GSW vs. PHX ($4,300 DK, $4,700 FD)
This is my least favorite game on the slate to target, but we're going to be able to pull in value plays from everywhere today. Payton is one of my favorites, and he's surprisingly not projecting to be that highly rostered. He drew the start in the Warriors' last game with both Jordan Poole and Damion Lee inactive, and he put up 30 DK points over 33 minutes in a win over the Grizzlies. Payton is averaging a 19% usage rate and 1.07 FPTS/min with Wiggins, Lee, and Poole off the floor this season, and a 22.2% usage rate with a 1.18 FPTS/min rate over his last two games - those marks are absolutely going to get the job done at his low salary tonight.
Cam Reddish - SG/SF, ATL vs. NYK ($5,400 DK, $5,300 FD)
Reddish isn't for the faint of heart as he has posted games of 7.5, 51.5, and 24.75 DK points over his last three games. His range of outcomes is very wide as he could sink your lineup just as easily as he could be a primary reason for taking down a DFS contest. He's going to get all of the minutes he can possibly handle here as the Hawks are extremely shorthanded today - the only real threats to limit his production are John Collins and Bogdan Bogdanovic. The Knicks have a stifling defense overall, but they've fallen recently as they're allowing the seventh-most FPPG to opposing SF's and eighth-most FPPG to opposing SG's over their last seven games. Reddish is a great tournament play thanks to his extreme volatility and the situation the Hawks find themselves in with being so decimated by COVID/injuries.
DraftKings play: Bogdan Bogdanovic - SG/SF, ATL vs. NYK ($4,700 DK)
FanDuel play: Alec Burks - SG/SF, NYK vs. ATL ($5,600 FD)
Others to consider: Skylar Mays ($3,400 DK, $3,500 FD), Delon Wright ($4,800 DK, $5,100 FD), Bruce Brown ($4,300 DK, $4,100 FD), Frank Ntilikina ($3,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4,700 DK)
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Forwards DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Otto Porter Jr. - SF/PF, GSW vs. PHX ($3,900 DK, $4,500 FD)
For the record, Draymond Green profiles really nicely as a pay-up option in this game. The Warriors don't rank well in my model today, but one spot where they're popping is at the PF position. Green (obviously) has the higher ceiling as he just put up 55.25 DK points with a triple-double two games ago, but Porter is my pick due to his recent form and very affordable salary. He should see at least 26 minutes in this game - he played 30 and 29 minutes over his last two games, scoring 32.75 and 31.25 DK points, respectively. I'd expect a similar outcome tonight as he's averaging close to 1.00 FPTS/min with all of the inactives on the Warriors' roster. He's not a high-ceiling play by any means, but he can get you where you need to go in terms of fitting in as many pay-up options as you can.
Robert Williams - PF/C, BOS vs. MIL ($5,800 DK, $5,600 FD)
Note: Time Lord is only a core play if Al Horford is ultimately ruled out (currently questionable).
Williams is averaging 1.15 FPTS/min with Horford and Richardson off the floor this season, which comes in as the second-best mark on the team behind Jaylen Brown. He crushed in his last game, putting up a monster 21/11/7/2/2 line (53.75 DK points) over 34 minutes on 12/22. The Bucks are among the top teams at defending the center position, but this game environment is beautiful as it holds a high 221-point implied total and the second-fastest projected pace on the slate. Williams has a chance to continue dominating here, as long as Horford is ruled out.
Others to consider: Paul Millsap ($3,000 DK, $3,600 FD), Talen Horton-Tucker ($5,400 DK, $5,000 FD), Royce O'Neale ($3,900 DK)
Centers - DraftKings, FanDuel NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Gorgui Dieng - C, ATL vs. NYK ($3,600 DK, $3,500 FD)
Note: Clint Capela is going to be active. Dieng should still see 15-20 minutes and remains a solid value play at his price, but I'd rather get to Robert Williams now for his potential ceiling.
This is just an unfortunate misprice on the lone center standing for the Hawks. Capela and Okongwu will be inactive in this one, leaving Dieng and (some) Collins left to soak up all of the available center minutes. Dieng put up 24.25 DK points in just 14 minutes last game as Okongwu was available for that one. With all of the players out for the Hawks, Dieng holds a solid 21.9% usage rate and 1.19 FPTS/min (over a small sample size). The Knicks are a top-10 defense against the center position, but Dieng is way too cheap for his expected production when he's given at least 20 minutes - I'm seeing him projecting to get at least 25 minutes tonight and absolutely smash his price tag.
Others to consider: Dwight Powell ($3,300 DK), Dwight Howard ($4,800 DK, $4,500 FD), John Collins ($7,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
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