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Hey, RotoBallers! I want to introduce myself formally, my name is Jon Irvin. Some of you may know me from the Discord channels and know I love breaking down DFS slates, especially in MLB and NHL. I enjoy the deep dumpster diving so to speak, and look forward to helping find the low owned overlooked, and unwanted plays. I predominantly play on DraftKings so some of my picks are more tailored to their point/price system but a good spot is a good spot regardless of platform. By now, we have enough data to start focusing on positive and negative trends. I have started to implement my trend chart where I look at both L25 and L10 to help see which teams are trending in which direction.
Today's DFS content will be for the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, December 11, 2023. We're back today with another somewhat small four-game slate, which opens the idea of running full onslaught stacks. The onslaught stack consists of at least 5 skaters, usually a full PP1 unit, and the reasoning behind this is we want to maximize our chance of getting the most exposure from a favorite team. The downside is usually a very costly stack in need of value plays, which is where this article comes in.
After reading this, jump into the RotoBaller Discord NHL channel and chat it up with all the other great minds about today's slate. Don’t forget to check out our valuable NHL tools, including the new NHL DFS Heat Map.
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NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 12/04/23
As stated earlier, I have begun to implement my personal trend chart. Below, you'll see stats that reflect the average of L25 and L10. This happens to weigh L10 heavier, which tightens our sample and shows both positive and negative trends. Following the chart we can see that the New York Islanders have been bleeding both high danger and scoring chances at an alarming clip, following close behind are the Sabres. These two spots could be a pivotal matchup for both the Leafs and Yotes.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Ilya Sorokin - DK $7.5K || FD $7.8K
Opponent - Toronto Maple Leafs
It's the battle of the Ilyas out in Nassau tonight when the Islanders welcome in the Maple Leafs. I know I warned you earlier about NYI bleeding chances, and running a goalie behind those defensive numbers could make anyone ill but the shot volume and the price tag is low enough to chance Sorokin returns to form. Even though his GAA is sitting at an unimpressive 3.12, Sorokin is averaging nearly 34 saves a game which flirts with the save bonus almost every time he touches the ice.
Others to consider: Connor Ingram (DK $7.4K || FD $7.7K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Nick Bjugstad- DK $4.6K || FD $5.2K
Bjugstad is centering one of my favorite value lines on the slate. His price tag has slowly crept up with his somewhat stable contribution on both L2 and PP2 which he also shares with both linemates. One of the key points to any value play is TOI, all three linemates have been around or exceeded the 20-minute mark which is huge. More minutes on ice means more chances at production.
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Others to consider: Wyatt Johnston (DK $5.2K || FD $6.1K )
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Matias Maccelli - DK $3.8K || FD $4.7K
Another ARZ L2 linemate with great metrics as well as an ample amount of TOI. Matias has reached the 5 sog bonus twice this last week to go along with his 3 points, that production for his low salary is exactly what we want.
Opponent - Buffalo Sabres
Logan O'Connor - DK $3.5K || FD $3.6K
Colorado has shaken up their lines a bit which finds Logan up on L1. With an uptick in minutes and an upgrade in linemates, flanking MacKinnon can only bode well for the young winger. If O'Connor happens to find himself back on L3 it diminishes his upside a bit but still a valuable play.
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Others to consider: Anders Lee ( DK $3.7K || FD $4.5K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Josh Manson - DK $3.7K || FD $4.6K
Manson has stepped up his game over the past five games, not only is he blocking shots, he's putting the puck on the net and getting himself on the scoresheet. Another plus matchup tonight facing Dan Vladar, not to be confused with the great WCW wrestler Big Van Vader, this Vladar Time can't stop anyone.
Opponent - Calgary Flames
Others to consider: Ilya Solovyov (DK $2.9K || FD NA )
JIrv’s Discount Stacks and Sample Lineups
With the possibility of both wingers coming at a discount, COL1 could be seen as a decent value stack, costing only $16.6 on DK. Don't be afraid to go off the beaten path and distinguish yourself from the masses, and as always, good luck RotoBallers!
COL1
ARZ2
NHL DFS News and Injury Alerts
More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
