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Jon Irvin's NHL DFS picks for today's contests on FanDuel and DraftKings. Use Jon's picks to win money playing NHL DFS on 11/25/24.
Hey, RotoBallers! I want to introduce myself formally. My name is Jon Irvin. Some of you may know me from the Discord channels and know I love breaking down DFS slates, especially in the MLB and NHL. I enjoy the deep dumpster diving, so to speak, and look forward to helping find the low-owned, overlooked, and unwanted plays.
I predominantly play on DraftKings, so some of my picks are more tailored to their point/price system, but a good spot is a good spot regardless of platform.
Welcome back, my friends, to the show that never ends. We're so glad you could attend. Come inside! Today's DFS content will be for the main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday, November 25th, 2024, at 7:00 PM EDT. Tonight we have a huge 11-game slate, which means we shouldn't have to worry too much about ownership for there will be many ways to reach the top.
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DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS Picks: First Look Stats
After reading this, jump into the RotoBaller Discord NHL channel and chat with all the other great minds about today's slate. Don’t forget to check out our valuable NHL tools, including the NHL DFS Heat Map. I've begun to implement my personal trend chart. This looks at the average between the L25 and L10, weighing the L10 heavier to help find certain positive or negative trends.
DraftKings and FanDuel Goalies - NHL DFS Picks
Value in net is key on DK with a three-point bonus at the 35-save mark. We can afford to give up an extra goal or two if our goalie can see a steady shot volume against him. Those extra few hundred can get us those top-line forwards. Usually, this spot is saved most nights for the likes of Lukas Dostal and Mackenzie Blackwood but tonight there are a few other goalies priced better and in great spots.
Dustin Wolf - DK $7.4K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - Ottawa Senators
Wolf has been a little shaky on the road (.876 SV%) compared to home ice (.942 SV%) but tonight's matchup sets up nicely according to his price tag. Calgary allows a good amount of shots 5v5 (28.7/60) but has been limiting high-danger chances while Ottawa has been trending up offensively and offers a nice projected shot volume they also lack high-danger chances which means fewer potent shots for Dustin to fend off.
Juuse Saros - DK $7.2K || FD $7.2K
Opponent - New Jersey Devils
This price is just too juicy for Juuse, who like Wolf, finds himself in a nice spot when comparing teams that give up heavy shot volume/low high danger chances versus teams with a high shot volume/low high danger chances. The only difference here is Saros is cheaper and faces a Devils squad that has been trending in the opposite direction.
Others to consider: Alex Lyon (DK $7.3K || FD $7.2K )
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NHL DFS Picks
Ryan Strome - DK $4.1K || FD $5.2K
Opponent - Seattle Kraken
As caustic as the Ducks have been defensively, the young team has great offensive metrics, especially at home. Strome has centered L2 with decent success and carries a positive xGF differential of over 1.11G/60. Not only that but Strome, with the rest of his linemates, has a full PP1 correlation as well.
Nicolas Roy - DK $3.6K || FD $5.1K (W on FD)
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
Roy has been a value staple this year and tonight is no different. Roy centering the 2nd line with Tomas Hertl has given him a dangerous playmaker and should find ample opportunities tonight versus a suspect Flyers squad.
Others to consider: Quinton Byfield (DK $3.7K || FD $4.6K )
DraftKings and FanDuel Wings - NHL DFS Picks
Alex Turcotte - DK $2.7K || FD $3.8K
Opponent - San Jose Sharks
Alex has found a home in the revolving door that is the left winger on LAK1. Turcotte's 5v5 TOI is lacking but he gets time on the second power-play unit which adds a few more chances nightly. In limited time, especially on the road, metrics seem to be pointing in the right direction for success.
Keegan Kolesar - DK $2.6K || FD $3.9K
Opponent - Philadelphia Flyers
Let's shift our focus to another winger Rolodex in Vegas. With Stone on the mend, the Golden Knights have been changing their lines on the fly nightly. Keegan has found himself lately sharing ice time on the top 6 which bodes well for opportunities. In his slight uptick in TOI has come a steady supply of shots as well as blocks.
Others to consider: Mackie Samoskevich (DK $2.5K || FD $3.8K)
DraftKings and FanDuel Defensemen - NHL DFS Picks
Since tonight's slate is so big we may not necessarily need to scrape the bottom of the value bin. I'll concentrate on the chart below and find steady floors to depend on.
Jacob Trouba - DK $4.8K || FD $5.6K
Trouba finds himself with the 4th highest shot/blocks per game. His consistent TOI hovering around 20 minutes has allowed him to accumulate both shots and blocks. Jake has yet to light the lamp and hasn't been as active on the scoring side of things which has lowered his ceiling on the year which has kept his pricing down compared to years past. He's the 25th-priced blue liner on DK which makes this a great price discrepancy play.
Opponent - St. Louis Blues
Trevor van Riemsdyk - DK $3.9K || FD $5.3K
Opponent - Florida Panthers
TVR finds himself in a similar spot as Trouba with fewer minutes, shots and blocks are there but point production has been lacking. Ranked 21st in peripherals yet priced 39th on DK.
Others to consider: Matt Roy (DK $3.2K || FD $4.7K)
Here is my top 25 defensemen chart, focusing more on shot and block peripherals to find a safer floor.
JIrv’s Discount Stacks and Sample Lineups
Top Value Stack
ANA 2 (Terry / Strome / Vatrano )
VGK 2 (Kolesar / Roy / Hertl)
Top Pay Up Stack
FLA 1 (Rodrigues /Barkov/Reinhart)
LAK 1 (Kempe / Kopitar / Turcotte)
Don't be afraid to go off the beaten path and distinguish yourself from the masses, and as always, good luck, RotoBallers!
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More DFS Lineup Picks and Analysis
