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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing 10-game matinee mix. The weather looks mostly clear, though it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 6/4/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Nathan Eovaldi, TEX vs. SEA ($11,000 DK, $10,800 FD)
This price may appear abnormally premium for Eovaldi, but the pay raise is earned. If the season ended today, Eovaldi would have a legitimate case for the Cy Young Award. He's enjoying the best season of his career, posting a 2.94 xERA through 11 starts. Eovaldi is averaging nearly seven innings per outing, including two complete games. He has only allowed four total earned runs over his past six outings combined and pitched seven innings or more in all but one of those appearances. Eovaldi is at his peak performance right now, and I see no reason to suspect that it won't continue.
Eovaldi's underlying numbers support continued excellence. He carries a .271 xwOBA, .345 xSLG, 4.9% walk rate, .230 xBA, and an elite 4.5% barrel rate. Home runs have historically been a problem for Eovaldi, but he's allowed only three long balls through 74 1/3 innings pitched this season. Allowing minimal power and letting few runners on base is a good recipe for success. Eovaldi's 24.6% strikeout rate isn't elite, but considering he's shutting out opponents more often than not, it's a worthwhile tradeoff.
Seattle's lineup is powerful on paper, featuring big names like Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic. That hasn't translated into a particularly strong offense this season, scoring a middling 4.4 runs per game. They own a weak .689 OPS against right-handed pitching, which includes a .148 ISO and 98 wRC+. The Mariners additionally strike out at a 25.3% rate, the fourth-highest mark in the league. It's a very favorable matchup for Eovaldi.
Eovaldi is expensive to get to today, but I think he's absolutely worth the price. He's been dominating the competition over the past month, and the Mariners are unlikely to be the team to throw him off course. Eovaldi is capable of a complete game and/or double-digit strikeouts whenever he takes the mound these days. That's the type of ceiling I want in on.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA vs. OAK ($9,000 DK, $9,700 FD)
Alcantara has been unable to replicate his phenomenal 2022 campaign, but I'm not ready to write him off over his early-season struggles. He sports a 4.93 ERA through 11 starts this season, but his underlying numbers do suggest he's pitched somewhat better than that. Alcantara carries a 4.22 xERA and 5.4% barrel rate. He's getting hit harder than he did in 2022, though I'm not as concerned with that in this particular matchup.
The Athletics are the worst offense in baseball. They score less than 3.4 runs per game. Oakland owns a league-worst .620 OPS against right-handed pitchers, including a .127 ISO and 79 wRC+. They also strike out at an MLB-leading 26.5% rate. There's no better matchup a pitcher could hope to draw. Oakland is historically bad this season, and that's the main reason Alcantara is worth a roster spot today.
Rostering Alcantara carries a bit more risk than Eovaldi or some other arms on this slate; however, the upside is very tangible. He won't typically rack up high strikeout totals, but he is a workhorse. Alcantara has pitched at least six innings in four of his last five outings. He averaged more than seven innings per start in 2022, and he appears to be trending in that direction once again. In a matchup with Oakland, I'm comfortable rolling the dice on last year's NL Cy Young Award winner.
Also consider: Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Pete Alonso – 1B, NYM vs. Yusei Kikuchi ($5,600 DK, $4,200 FD)
Alonso leads the majors with 20 home runs, so this isn't a terribly creative suggestion. He sports a phenomenal .599 xSLG alongside similarly elite numbers, like a .409 xwOBA and 17.4% barrel rate. Alonso is slugging .576 against left-handed pitchers this season, up from a .532 career mark, and he owns a .318 ISO. We could continue highlighting Alonso's impressive numbers, but the justification is obvious enough.
Yusei Kikuchi ranks second in the majors with 15 home runs allowed this season. He's surrendered a .509 xSLG, 92 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, and 11.2% barrel rate. Right-handed hitters are slugging .519 against Kikuchi with 12 home runs and a .371 wOBA. The stars feel aligned in this matchup.
Jake Burger – 3B, CWS vs. Matthew Boyd ($3,300 DK, $3,300 FD)
Jake Burger isn't getting the credit he deserves as one of the league's best hitters against left-handed pitching. He's slugging .730 against southpaws this season with a .432 ISO, 195 wRC+, and four home runs. Burger's career .975 OPS against lefties suggests this success is legitimate and sustainable. His playing time has taken a dip lately with the White Sox getting healthier, but Burger figures to be in the lineup today.
Matthew Boyd isn't getting regularly lit up this season, but right-handed hitting has been a persisting problem for him. Righties are slugging .434 against him with six home runs and a .344 wOBA. For his career, Boyd has surrendered a .470 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters, so the problem is nothing new.
Maikel Garcia – 3B, KC vs. Kyle Freeland ($2,400 DK, $2,600 FD)
Garcia isn't a slate-breaking type of play, but for close to the minimum price, he's worth a look. Though his service time is brief, Garcia carries a career .576 slugging percentage against left-handed pitchers. He's not much of a power threat, but he can handle southpaws and rack up fantasy points with his stolen base prowess. For such a bargain price, Garcia is worth a look.
Kyle Freeland has been getting crushed by right-handed hitters this season. They're slugging .482 against him with a .337 wOBA and 10 home runs this season. There are other bats in the Kansas City lineup he will have to watch out for first, like Salvador Perez, but don't overlook Maikel Garcia if you need the discount.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Bryce Harper – OF, PHI vs. Trevor Williams ($6,300 DK, $3,800 FD)
Harper was absent for the first chunk of the season due to Tommy John surgery, but it hasn't felt like he's missed a beat. He's slashing .292/.395/.448 through 26 games, and his advanced stats suggest better performances are ahead. Harper sports a .517 xSLG, .381 xwOBA, and 13.2% barrel rate. He's managed three home runs thus far, but it's safe to assume Harper will pick up the pace before long.
Trevor Williams' advanced stats suggest he's quite lucky to own the 3.93 ERA he has. His 5.27 xERA paints a wildly different picture, and a .505 xSLG and 12.9% barrel rate do little to ease the concerns surrounding Williams. He's surrendered a .479 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters this season, down from .514 in 2022. Harper and numerous other Phillies bats look good in this spot.
Josh Lowe – OF, TB vs. Tanner Houck ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD)
Josh Lowe is having a breakout season in 2023. He's slashing .304/.353/.584 with 11 home runs and 13 stolen bases. That includes an outstanding .559 xSLG, .384 xwOBA, and 13.1% barrel rate. Lowe is slugging .593 against right-handed pitchers with a .283 ISO and 164 wRC+.
Tanner Houck shows flashes of brilliance on the mound, but left-handed hitters have been a longstanding problem for him. Lefties own a .486 slugging percentage against Houck with a .341 wOBA and seven home runs.
Jesus Sanchez – OF, MIA vs. Paul Blackburn ($3,200 DK, $2,900 FD)
Jesus Sanchez is flying under the radar this season, and his discounted price reflects that. Through 34 games, he's slashing .317/.391/.573 with four home runs. Looking closer at the underlying numbers, Sanchez carries a .552 xSLG, 14.5% barrel rate, 49.1% hard-hit rate, .266 ISO, 91.1 mph average exit velocity, and 162 wRC+.
Paul Blackburn has only pitched four innings so far in 2023, but based on his previous track record, he's a good candidate to get knocked around. Blackburn posted a 4.14 xERA last season, including a 40.5% hard-hit rate. He's not partial to any particular handedness, but left-handed hitters slugged .448 against him last season.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
New York Mets vs. Yusei Kikuchi
Yusei Kikuchi's struggles were touched on above. He ranks second in the majors with 15 home runs allowed this season, and his advanced numbers suggest he's been even worse than his 4.47 ERA. Kikuchi carries a .509 xSLG, 92 mph average exit velocity, 48.2% hard-hit rate, .358 xwOBA, and 11.2% barrel rate. He surrenders plenty of power, and today should be no different.
The Mets have been something of a disappointment this season, but there's a lot of firepower in their lineup. New York scores a middling 4.3 runs per game behind big names like Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Fortunately, Kikuchi has been hit equally hard by batters of all handedness, so nobody is off the table from the Mets lineup. The roster options range from premium to cheap, so finding stacks to fit into your build shouldn't be too difficult.
Favorite Plays: Pete Alonso, Francisco Lindor, Starling Marte, Jeff McNeil, Brandon Nimmo
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Trevor Williams
Trevor Williams' 3.93 ERA suggests that he hasn't been bad this season. The advanced numbers appear to strongly disagree. Williams carries a 5.27 xERA, including a .505 xSLG, 12.9% barrel rate, .274 xBA, and .354 xwOBA. At some point, the expected stats are bound to catch up with Williams' on-field results.
The Phillies lineup looks great in this spot. Williams has a noteworthy ability to get hit hard, and this Philadelphia lineup possesses some lethal bats between Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, and more. Trevor Williams has historically been lit up by left-handed hitters, but righties and lefties are slugging north of .450 against him this season. I believe today is the day Williams' due regression finally kicks in.
Favorite Plays: Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos, Trea Turner, Brandon Marsh
Also Consider: Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals, Miami Marlins
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