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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on May 1, 2023. Casey Wilson's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Monday, everyone. I hope you had a great weekend filled with baseball. We welcome the work week back with a six-game slate. Today's slate is full of average pitching, as we don't have any true aces to pick from. Luis Garcia is our most expensive arm at $9,200 on DraftKings and MacKenzie Gore at $10,500 on FanDuel. I expect some chalk in the mid-range on DraftKings tonight, and I will skip that range and get some value at pitching, which we will talk about shortly.
With the chalk being in the mid-range and no slam dunk pitching options, I will be attacking some chalk with bats. I expect the Blue Jays to be the highest-owned bats against Corey Kluber. I love some Blue Jays bats against Kluber, but I also think there are two stacks we can get to before them for leverage on today's slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/1/2023 and the slate locking at 7:05 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks! Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luke Weaver, CIN vs. SD ($7,000 DK, $7,800 FD)
I in no way, shape, or form ever thought I would be writing up this name in my article today. Many times, “bad plays” have been screaming at me in my face, and I don’t listen, and they break a slate. I have been trying to listen to the numbers more when it comes to DFS, and this is one of those days.
Here we go. Luke Weaver has started 2023 with a 31.4% K. He has an elite 15.1% SwStr. He’s stuck out eight in back-to-back outings against the Pirates and Rangers, two teams in the bottom third of K% against right-hand pitching. Both these games were also at home in Great American "smallpark". Weaver has a 7.71 ERA, but his SIERA is at 3.43, the second lowest on the slate. He also has a 7.8% BB, meaning his command has been there. He is getting hit hard, as he has a 53.3% hard hit, but the pitching on this slate is average, and there is no slam dunk play anywhere. I love his salary and his upside.
The Padres have a 25.5% K against right-hand pitching, the sixth worst in baseball. They have a 95 wRC+, .309 wOBA, and a .386 SLG, all bottom third in baseball against righties. We have also all heard of the Coors Field hangover, a philosophy that when teams leave altitude, they have trouble picking up pitches with more spin and movement. Well, the Padres just played two games at Alfredo Harp Helú Stadium in Mexico City, an elevation 2,000 miles higher than Coors. If we’re talking about hangovers, this is a drank-a bottle of whisky by yourself hangover. I like what I’m seeing from Weaver, and when we factor in the Padres' first game back from Mexico City, maybe, just maybe, we get a ceiling game out of Weaver.
Luis Garcia, HOU vs. SF ($9,200 DK, $9,600 FD)
Luis Garcia is about as safe as a play as you can get on today's slate. He will be massive chalk here. He is in the same situation as Luke Weaver as he faces San Fransisco in their first game out of Mexico City. The difference here is that Garcia is a good pitcher, and the matchup against the Giants is as good as you can get early this season.
Garcia has a 27.2% K to open up his 2023 campaign. He also has a 14.8% SwStr, both career highs. He has an 8.8% BB with a 4.03 SIERA. The Giants have a 26.1% K against righties, the second worst in baseball. There’s swing-and-miss upside in this lineup, and on today's slate, Garcia is the safest option on the board.
Also consider: MacKenzie Gore and Blake Snell
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Alex Bregman - 3B, HOU vs. Ross Stripling ($4,400 DK, $2,900 FD)
Alex Bregman has an elite matchup with Ross Stripling, making him my favorite bat on tonight’s slate. Stripling has a .399 wOBA, .442 ISO, and a 48.5% hard hit against righties in 2023. Bregman, since 2022 has a .221 ISO, .368 wOBA, and a 40.0% hard hit. Stripling only does well by keeping the ball on the ground, but Bregman has a 45.0% FB. Bregman is my dinger call of the day.
Anthony Rizzo - 1B, NYY vs. Cal Quantrill ($4,300 DK, $3,400 FD)
Anthony Rizzo will face the struggling Cal Quantrill today in Yankee Stadium. Quantrill has a 5.37 SIERA with a .322 wOBA and .149 ISO against left-hand hitters. Since the start of last season, Rizzo has a .355 wOBA and a .267 ISO. Quantrill has done an excellent job keeping the ball on the ground, but Rizzo’s 44.0% FB should negate that.
Whit Merrifield - 2B.OF, TOR vs. Corey Kluber ($3,300 DK, $3,100 FD)
Here comes Whit Merrifield returning to the 2021 form. Over his last 15, Whit has a 211 wRC+, .472 wOBA, and a .179 ISO against right-hand pitching. He faces Corey Kluber, who has a 5.00 SIERA and a 2.63 HR/9 to open in 2023. Merrifield has four stolen bases already this season, and Kluber is prone to allowing steals, so there is even more upside here for Whit.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jarren Duran - OF, BOS vs. Jose Berrios ($3,300 DK, $3,300 FD)
Jarren Duran has been scorching hot over his last 15 days. He has a 178 wRC+, .433 wOBA, and a .270 ISO against right-hand pitching. In 2023 he has a .270 ISO and a .426 wOBA. He averages 10.3 DK points a game and is way too cheap on DraftKings. Berrios has a .301 wOBA, .167 ISO, and a 36.1% hard hit against lefties this season.
Jake Meyers - OF, HOU vs. Ross Stripling ($2,300 DK, $2,300 FD)
Jake Meyers has been hot against right-hand pitching with a 133 wRC+, .360 wOBA, and a .139 ISO over his last 15 games. The intriguing part is the salary of 2.3K on both sites. Meyers gives you the ability in this stack to get three out of the four or even four out of the four stud Astros in your lineups.
Cody Bellinger - OF, CHC vs. MacKenzie Gore ($3,900 DK, $3,800 FD)
Cody Bellinger has reclaimed his dominance against lefties this season, opening up with a .403 wOBA, .375 ISO, 37.0% hard hit, and only a 13.2% K. MacKenzie Gore has also shown reverse splits this year with a .536 wOBA .375 ISO and a 44.4% hard hit. This is a small sample size, so take it how you want, but the numbers don’t lie, and this matchup for Bellinger is elite.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
1. Houston Astros vs. Ross Stripling
Houston Astros will face Ross Stripling today, a nightmare matchup for him. Striping has a 4.35 SIERA, 3.45 HR/9, and a 42.3% hard-hit through five starts in 2023. He will now get the defending world champions on the road. Stripling has a .399 wOBA, .442 ISO, and a 48.5% hard hit against righties. He’s not much better against lefties with a .395 wOBA, .043 ISO, and a 52.6% hard hit. I prefer the righties here, but Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker should never be left out of Astros stacks.
The Astros, although banged up, have plenty of firepower on the offensive side of the ball. They are full of guys who can hit the ball in the air, Stripling's only strength. The only downfall is they are expensive, but if you play Weaver, you can play whoever you want. Stack them up tonight.
Favorite Plays: Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jake Meyers, Jose Abreu
2. Boston Red Sox vs. Jose Berrios
I had difficulty determining if I wanted to write up the Blue Jays or the Red Sox here. I love these teams and will mix and match them with the Astros on my two main teams tomorrow. I ultimately decided on the Red Sox as I think they will be less chalky, and frankly, I love picking on Berrios. The Blue Jays will be the chalk of the slate, and don’t get me wrong, I love them here, but I think the Red Sox have some sneaky upside here.
Over the last 15 days, the Red Sox have the sixth-best wRC+, the fourth-best SLG, the fourth-best wOBA, and third lowest K% against right-hand pitching. Berrios has struggled his entire career against lefties, and the Red Sox are full of left-handed bats currently swinging it. This stack will be sneaky and has the upside to be a slate winner today.
Favorite Plays: Jarren Duran, Rafael Devers, Masataka Yoshida, Triston Casas, Alex Verdugo
Also Consider:
3. Toronto Blue Jays vs. Corey Kluber
4. New York Yankees Lefties vs.Cal Quantrill
5. Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tony Gonsolin
DraftKings and FanDuel Cores
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