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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on November 1st, 2022 for Game Three of the World Series. Mark Kieffer's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
With the rain out last night, Game 3 of the World Series happens tonight, Tuesday, November 1st, 2022! This is a huge game where both teams try to take control of the series with a 2-1 lead!
This article has daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 11/1/2022, Showdown Slate at 8:03 pm Eastern Time. The lineup will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.
You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. If you have any questions or comments, find me on Twitter @Mark_Kieffer and ask away!
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Showdown Basics
In a single baseball game, literally every player is viable. Any pitcher can have a ceiling type of a game and any batter can hit a home run or two in a game. Of course some things are more likely to happen than others, but there really is not a fade list in games like this!
When choosing a lineup, pick an outcome from the game. Will the game be low-scoring and close? Will it be a blowout? Is it a slugfest waiting to happen?
It is impossible to predict what will happen in the game, but under each potential outcome a thought experiment regarding who is most likely to benefit is good. From there, you can choose the outcome you think is most likely and then choose the players most likely to benefit. If playing multiple lineups, you can choose either different game outcomes or you can mix and match different pitchers under one outcome.
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Showdown Cash Strategy
The Houston Astros are -120 favorites while the game total is currently set at 7.5 runs. This means that Houston is favored and the expected runs for the game are lower than average. In cash games, people will likely look to put Lance McCullers in the Captain spot and then find Astros bats to fit into the lineup as they are favored to win.
Because the Astros are facing a lefty, Ranger Suarez, it is likely that people will look to roster Astros that are good against LHP. Below is a list of the top Astros vs. LHP this season:
Jose Altuve: .458 wOBA, .319 ISO, and 207 wRC+ vs. LHP
Yordan Alvarez: .424 wOBA, .265 ISO, and 183 wRC+ vs. LHP
Chas McCormick: .418 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 179 wRC+ vs. LHP
Christian Vazquez: .373 wOBA, .130 ISO, and 147 wRC+ vs. LHP
Jeremy Pena: .351 wOBA, .207 ISO, and 131 wRC+ vs. LHP
Fitting several of these guys with perhaps a Brandon Marsh from the Phillies is likely the cash way to go in this one.
Showdown GPP Strategy
The biggest recommendation here is to flip the build. While the Astros are favored, they aren't that strong of a favorite. The Phillies are implied for 0.20 runs less than the Astros -- they are virtually the same.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper have just as much upside as Altuve and Yordan Alvarez do. Because the Schwarber + Harper duo is more expensive than Altuve + Alvarez, this is likely to be more of a contrarian approach.
Brandon Marsh has a .367 wOBA and .193 ISO vs. RHP this season. He is likely to bat ninth and be close to the minimum price.
Another potential approach is to create a lineup in the event it is high scoring. Fade both starting pitchers, find the hitters on both teams in good spots, and take some relief pitchers like a Rafael Montero on Houston and Seranthony Dominguez on Philadelphia. This can be risky because if you guess on a relief pitcher and they do not play, you get a zero. But if both starters get knocked out of the game, they could both have negative points.
Conclusion
At the end of the day, baseball is a very random sport. On average, this is going to be a low-scoring game, but we do not play averages, the game is played once. I encourage you to do a thought experiment on how you think the game will go and who most likely benefits from that result. Make a lineup that fits. Above are some ideas but they are not an exhaustive list.
I wish you the best of luck with your lineups and enjoy Game 3!
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