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Happy Thursday RotoBallers! This is John Brubaker dropping some of my favorite plays for today's slate. It's ALDS time, and we have just a two-game slate on the board for today. It's been a while since I've shared my MLB DFS articles with you, as there were no Thursday games last week, but I'm happy to be back. It's tough to navigate these two-game slates, to begin with, let alone during playoffs. However, I'll always trust my model, so I'm always confident.
We don't have any slate differences though, which is always a good thing. That way I don't have to make selections that may be on one slate and not the other. I have some ideas for tonight's slate, so let's get right to it.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel at 1:10 pm on 9/29/2022. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options, and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all of that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Nestor Cortes, NYY vs CLE ($7,500 DK, $9,400 FD)
I'll start off today's slate with "nasty" Nestor Cortes. Cortes has had a great season for the Yankees, and will now take the ball looking to give them a 2-0 lead in the ALDS. Cleveland has struggled to put runs up on the board throughout this postseason, and I can't expect today to be much different. Cortes made two starts against the Guardians this season, tossing 12.1 innings and allowing three runs while striking out 14. He projects to a 3.45 xFIP and a 28.78% strikeout rate this evening.
DraftKings Projection: 18.5
FanDuel Projection: 31.67
Luis Castillo, SEA at HOU ($7,200 DK, $9,700 FD)
I'll be taking the two cheaper pitchers on the slate tonight. Luis Castillo turned in a great outing against the Toronto Blue Jays in the Wild Card round and will look to keep that momentum going this afternoon against the Astros. Surprisingly enough, he hasn't pitched a game against the Astros this season, but he does project well tonight. My model projects him to a 2.96 xFIP and a 27.87% strikeout rate this afternoon.
DraftKings Projection: 16.4
FanDuel Projection: 29.21
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Amed Rosario - SS, CLE vs. Nestor Cortes ($4,000 DK, $4,000 FD)
As far as hitters go, I'm leaning toward going cheap in the infield while stacking the big bats in the outfield. So I'll start off with Amed Rosario. While I do like Nestor Cortes as one of my starting pitchers this afternoon, I will take a look at Rosario who both has some success against him. He's 2-3 with a homer and two walks in five plate appearances against the southpaw, as well as projecting to a 28.63% hard contact rate and .558 wOBA + ISO against his pitch types.
DraftKings Projection: 7.3
FanDuel Projection: 9.14
Eugenio Suarez - 3B, SEA vs. Framber Valdez ($3,800 DK, $3,700 FD)
I'll take look at Eugenio Suarez for my second hitter of the night. Suarez projects to a whopping 41.41% hard contact rate and .886 wOBA + ISO against Framber Valdez this afternoon. While this hasn't translated to a lot of success against Valdez in the past (1-6, three strikeouts), Suarez has been on a heater this postseason and I think that very well could continue into today.
DraftKings Projection: 8.0
FanDuel Projection: 10.77
Curt Casali - C, SEA vs. Framber Valez ($2,200 DK, $2,100 FD)
In terms of value, I'll take a look at Curt Casali. Casali had just 146 at-bats on the season, and hit below the "Mendoza line", with a .199 batting average and .641 OPS. My model projects him to just a 22.59% hard contact rate today, but he does have a .916 projected wOBA + ISO against Framber Valdez's pitch types. He's never faced the southpaw in his career, but should he start I feel he provides a solid punt play at catcher today.
DraftKings Projection: 7.0
FanDuel Projection: 9.45
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Aaron Judge - OF, NYY vs. Shane Bieber ($6,200 DK, $5,100 FD)
Of course, I'll have to start with Aaron Judge. Judge 0-3 in Game 1, but did manage to draw a walk and steal a base. Things don't appear to get easier against Cleveland ace Shane Bieber today, but my model projects him to a 47.43% hard contact rate and .872 wOBA + ISO against Bieber's pitch types. He's 0-5 against Bieber in his career so far, but he'll look to lead the Yankees to a 2-0 lead tonight.
DraftKings Projection: 10.0
FanDuel Projection: 13.5
Yordan Alvarez - OF, HOU vs. Luis Castillo ($5,400 DK, $4,500 FD)
If the Phillies weren't 3-1 in the playoffs so far with multiple "fun" moments, I would say Yordan's walk-off against Seattle's Robbie Ray would have ranked number one as my favorite postseason moment so far. He finished 3-5 in the game and will look to carry that into today as I have him projected for a 26.15% hard contact rate and .860 wOBA + ISO against Castillo's pitch types.
DraftKings Projection: 9.3
FanDuel Projection: 12.73
Giancarlo Stanton - OF, NYY vs. Shane Bieber ($5,100 DK, $2,200 FD)
I'll finish things off with Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton finished Tuesday night 0-2 with a walk, but I'll look for him to get it going tonight against Bieber. He's 1-6 against Bieber in his career, but my model does project him pretty well today. While we do have to worry about the strikeout, he does project to a 40.49% hard contact rate and .606 wOBA + ISO against Bieber's pitch types.
DraftKings Projection: 7.3
FanDuel Projection: 9.95
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
New York Yankees vs. Shane Bieber
There aren't many options, so it should be no surprise that I'll select the two teams that I won't be starting pitchers against. So I'll start in New York with the Yankees. The Yankees rank top five in the most important offensive categories this season, ranking fifth in OPS (.745) and wOBA (.325), and fourth in wRC+ (113).
Favorite Plays: Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres, Josh Donaldson
Seattle Mariners vs. Framber Valdez
I'll look at the Mariners as my "secondary" stack today, coming in as solid value so you can stack the big bats of New York. While they aren't as impressive against southpaws as the Yankees are against righties, their numbers are respectable. They rank 16th in OPS (.711) and wOBA (.314), and 11th in wRC+ (110). They've had no problems scoring runs throughout their first three games of the postseason, and I expect the bats to show up once again today with their backs against the wall.
Favorite Plays: Eugenio Suarez, Curt Casali, Dylan Moore, Carlos Santana, Mitch Haniger
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