RADIO
We have a ten-game monster on the NBA schedule tonight. Boston, Philly, Cleveland, Houston, Chicago, and Miami are all on the tail end of a back-to-back set here. Therefore, I fully expect this article to be irrelevant by noon. Most of the information contained herein will be the same though, so we may just have to look at different ways to attack the same weaknesses. On a slate this large, we shouldn't have to reach. If you don't see a ceiling from said player, move on.
First of all, it’s important to look at the pace and Vegas lines. Second, it’s also useful to understand the number of fantasy points a team gives up to a specific position. The final tip is to identify value plays that are critical on a slate of any size. You don’t have to necessarily go for the cheapest value, but you want to identify players who have a high floor and a high ceiling. On a slate this large there are going to be lots of plays at every level. Identifying the value will determine whether you hit minimum cash or are contending for a takedown. So grab a green beer or 12 and let's drink and curse NBA DFS like we're all Irish!
This article will supply you with my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for the DraftKings on 3/17/21. You can also check out today’s FanDuel lineup picks. It’s also important to monitor injury news as a result of COVID-19 as the slate can completely change before line-up lock. Without further ado, let’s dive into the picks!
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DraftKings DFS Guards
Bradley Beal - SG, vs. Sacramento ($9,300)
The Kings defense is terrible. We all know that. However, the perimeter defense, particularly on the wings, has been awful for most of the last decade. Klay Thompson had his two best career games against the Kings, so that tells you how far back this goes. Russell Westbrook has been out of his mind since the break, but I think this is where Beal gets close to a ceiling game. He played a staggering 42 minutes against the Bucks on Monday. If this game stays close, both Westbrook and Beal are going to be worth their lofty tags. That said, Beal is $1,100 cheaper and the ceiling is just as high.
Norman Powell - SG/SF, at Detroit ($7,500)
Fred VanVleet will miss at least one more game due to COVID. That means another game of heavy shooting for Powell. He has at least 39 DraftKings points in five of the six games that VanVleet has missed. One of those games was against this same Detroit team just before the break. Powell torched the Pistons for 46.25 DraftKings points in that one. This price is a bargain. It wont be once the Raptors are at full strength, but we wont need to worry about that for at least one more game.
Donte Divincenzo - PG/SG, at Philadelphia ($5,200)
March is DiVincenzo's time. Villanova wouldn't have made the march to the title in 2018 without him. Coming out of the break, DiVincenzo has piled up 92.5 DraftKings points in three games. That puts him near 6x value. Philly has had issues defending the perimeter all year. That could come to light even more without Embiid patrolling the middle. DiVincenzo is an efficient shooter and contributes enough in every other category to give him a solid floor. The ceiling is in sight here against Philly tonight.
Bonus Guards: Luka Doncic ($10,700), De'Aaron Fox ($9,200), Kevin Porter, Jr. ($6,800), Devonte' Graham ($4,500)
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DraftKings DFS Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo - PF/C at Philadelphia ($11,000)
This game loses a lot of luster with Embiid off the court, but at least it keeps ESPN from touting this as an Eastern Conference Finals preview. I understand worrying about Giannis and the price, but honestly, it's unfounded right now. Giannis has only been under 5x value, even at this lofty price, twice since the beginning of February. He has been over 6x ten times in the same span. The Bucks have been blowing out teams less often, so that has contributed some to the spike. Expect the trend to continue tonight.
Michael Porter, Jr. - SF/PF, vs. Charlotte ($6,700)
Can we play MPJ yet? Like consistently on a night-to-night basis? He's making a case for it. Porter has only been under 30 DraftKings points once in the last nine games. Charlotte's defense leaves a lot to be desired. The problem with Porter is that a ceiling game just wont happen with usage monsters like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray around. However, MPJ is efficient and a very good rebounder. He has a nice floor, but the ceiling might be a bit lower than we like. That said, lesser players have hit ceilings against Charlotte. This feels safe. Every time I think that about Porter though he gets about 12 points.....
Will Barton - SF, vs. Charlotte ($5,400)
Barton is in the zone. He has nailed five triples in every game since the All-Star break. For those of you counting at home, that's good for 110.25 DraftKings points in three games, or somewhere in the neighborhood of 8x value. Barton may not be a sexy name, but 8x value will take down a lot of tournaments if you get that from guys in this price range. You think Charlotte's going to stop him? Cool. I've got some oceanfront property over here in Omaha to sell you.....
Bonus Forwards: Jimmy Butler ($9,700), Kawhi Leonard ($8,700), Jerami Grant ($7,300), KJ Martin Jr. ($5,200), Larry Nance Jr. ($4,700)
DraftKings DFS Centers
Domantas Sabonis - PF-C, vs. Brooklyn($9,400)
You know Sabonis has come a long ways since last year considering he was one rebound shy of a triple-double in the loss to Denver over the weekend and that's considered a disappointing game. Prior to that 36.75 DraftKings point "disappointment," Sabonis absolutely crushed the Lakers and Suns coming out of the break. Sabonis will play more than 31 minutes in this one and should have no problems topping the 41.75 DraftKings points output in the first game against the Nets. That was before Harden, so there was still some semblance of a defense.
Richaun Holmes - PF-C, at Washington ($6,700)
The "at Washington" should be the only thing that I have to type here, but you pay good money for this, so I'll go on. Marvin Bagley is out and could be for a while. Washington is rather awful in the middle. Mo Wagner, bless his heart, tries, but Holmes is just better than him at every level. Holmes went berserk on Charlotte on Monday and played a whopping 41 minutes with Bagley going down during that game. If Holmes gets anywhere near 40 minutes, he's a legitimate threat for 8x value. I'm not kidding.
Mason Plumlee - C, vs. Tampa-ronto ($6,000)
I will admit it. I was one of the people scratching their heads when Detroit signed Plumlee, but it's certainly working out for them. Plumlee hasn't played more than 28 minutes in a game in nearly a month now (tank much???), but one of those games was against the Raptors. A game in which Plumlee racked up 50.25 DraftKings points thanks to a triple-double. Not many guys can do that in 28 minutes of court time. Plumlee has proven he can do a lot in little minutes. I wont go as far as to predict another 50 out of him, but Plumlee should still clear 6x value with relative ease.
Bonus Centers: Nikola Jokic ($11,000), Jonas Valanciunas ($7,600), Myles Turner ($5,900), Daniel Theis ($4,100)
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