RADIO
As expected on a Saturday, we have a meager five-game slate on tap in the NBA. The Jazz-Kings and Bucks-Nuggets matchups hold the highest implied total and profile as the top games to target for our DFS lineups, but it being a smaller slate means we'll need to consider all ten squads. Half of the teams in action tonight are playing in the second half of a back-to-back set, so we could see more than the usual amount of lineup scratches as we approach lock.
We're well into "Silly Season" in the NBA, a time when coaches around the league are assessing their end-of-year situations and either being extra cautious with their star players' minutes or holding them out entirely in preparation for the offseason or playoffs. This leads to players like Kris Dunn and Eric Gordon receiving significant minutes, which we must consider with how salaries work in daily fantasy basketball. Keep an attentive eye on the news and be ready to pivot anytime. Let's get to it.
Here is my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 3/25/23. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
NBA DFS Matchup Rankings
DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Davion Mitchell, vs. UTA (FD: $4,500, DK: $3,300) DraftKings Preferred
Mitchell is far from a sexy play, but we're taking what the slate is giving us for value, and he's right near the top of the board (currently). Star and usage-hog De'Aaron Fox left last night's game and is unlikely to suit up tonight, which means Mitchell should slide into the starting lineup and project to play around 30 minutes against the vulnerable Jazz defense. His rates don't improve much with Fox off the floor, but applying his 0.70 FPTS/min rate against 30 minutes gives us a 21 DK point projection (6.4x value).
This projects to be the fastest-paced game on the slate, and it holds the highest implied total, so there's plenty of room for him to go over that number and be essential in the optimal lineup tonight. It's also worth noting that the Jazz allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to point guards and the second-most fantasy points per game to shooting guards this season.
Mikal Bridges, vs. MIA (FD: $7,800, DK: $7,100) DraftKings Preferred
Bridges is an absolute stud, and he just needed to get out of Phoenix and away from Booker, Paul, and Ayton to jumpstart his break out. He has posted a few disappointing games recently, but he's still the focal point of the new-look Brooklyn offense, and players who rely on scoring will have those kinds of outings. Embracing volatility is a big part of the game in daily fantasy sports. Trusting the process by getting to a player like Bridges against the vaunted Heat defense is an excellent example.
The Heat rank eighth in defensive rating, play at the third-slowest pace, and allow the fourth-least fantasy points per game to opposing teams. The Nets hold the lowest implied total on the slate, indicating that the field won't get to them at a high rate. However, Bridges put up 71 DK points in one of his best games of the season against them back on 2/15, scoring 45 points with eight rebounds, five assists, two blocks, and two steals. If the Heat have a weakness defensively, it's guarding opposing small forwards as they're allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position this season. Bridges looks great tonight, especially if he's projecting to be an unpopular play.
Also consider: Malik Monk, Chris Paul, Jamal Murray, Tyler Herro, Kris Dunn
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Kevin Huerter, vs. UTA (FD: $6,200, DK: $5,400) DraftKings Preferred
"Red Velvet" looks like he'll be an intriguing option tonight at a more than affordable salary over on DraftKings, assuming De'Aaron Fox sits out with his hamstring injury. Huerter stepped up in a big way last night as he produced a 54.25 DK point outing, which was made possible by Fox leaving the game in the third quarter. He sees slight boosts to his usage rate (21.6%) and FPTS/min rate (0.99) with Fox off the floor this year, and as long as we're assuming he'll see his typical allotment of minutes, he's going to be among the top options on the slate at his salary.
The Jazz allow the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing shooting guards, rank 24th in defensive efficiency, and allow a top-10 opponent FG% in the 15-19 ft, 20-24 ft, and 25-29 ft ranges. This game is also projected as the fastest-paced matchup on the slate, which should benefit the higher-usage players on each squad. Huerter should have a field day with his shooting-centric play style.
Lauri Markkanen, vs. SAC (FD: $9,000, $DK: 9,000)
Markkanen is questionable to play with a hand injury, but if he's good enough to suit up, I love him as a DFS pivot tonight. He leads the team in usage rate (29.1%) and FPTS/min rate (1.28) with Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton off the floor, as they will be again tonight. He's prone to the occasional let-down performance when his shot isn't falling, but he generally hits shots at a high rate and contributes more than enough on the rebounding side. I love his chances against the Kings tonight in the top-rated matchup of the evening.
The Kings rank 26th in defensive rating and have allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards over their last 15 games. They're allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing small forwards over the same 15-game span. Any way you slice it, this is a favorable matchup for the former-Bulls lottery pick, and I will get a lot of exposure to him as long as he's ruled in.
Also consider: Harrison Barnes, Max Strus, Kevin Love, Trey Lyles, Aaron Gordon
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Nikola Jokic, vs. MIL (FD: $11,900, DK: $11,300) DraftKings Preferred
Everyone and their mother has already handed the MVP award to Joel Embiid, and to be transparent - so have the oddsmakers. However, Jokic hasn't stopped balling out since the market called off the race. You could argue he's in the middle of one of his better stretches of the season, which I'd like to take advantage of, personally. He dropped a mind-blowing 87.5 DK points two days after posting 77.25 DK points back on 3/12 and 3/10, respectively. He has gone over 60 DK points in three of five games since — no big deal.
We all know how prolific Jokic is as a fantasy stud. We don't know how he has performed against the Bucks this season because the two squads haven't yet met. Looking back at last year's numbers might shine some light on why I like Jokic as the top pay-up option tonight:
Those are some monster outings, and the Bucks' interior defense remained the same as last season. They've allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to centers over their last 15 games. This has the feel of one of those "You're making a mistake" games, where the reigning two-time MVP will be out to prove his haters wrong (again).
Also consider: Bam Adebayo, Domantas Sabonis, Nic Claxton, Joel Embiid
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