RADIO
Welcome to the weekend, RotoBallers. We have an unusually-large nine-game slate on tap tonight, highlighted by three games with implied totals north of 236 points. Several stars and important rotational players won't suit up tonight, leaving us to select value options in the wake.
We don't love playing a bunch of Pistons and non-Luka Mavericks, but hitting on the correct value plays is a significant key to this fantasy game we play, and we have to work with what we've got. Let's get to it.
Here is my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 3/11/23. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, vs. NOP (FD: $10,500, DK: $9,200) DraftKings Preferred
SGA saw a significant price decrease on DraftKings, and he needs just 46 DK points to hit 5x value tonight. He has been right at or well over that number in his last seven games, and 14 of his last 15 games. The matchup doesn't look incredible on paper, as the Pelicans rank eighth in defensive rating and middle-of-the-pack in fantasy points per game allowed (overall and to PGs). SGA also only managed 44.5 DK points against them the last time these teams met, back on 2/13.
However, he went nuclear for a season-high 73.5 DK points against them right before Christmas, scoring 44 points with ten rebounds, six assists, one block, and two steals. The opportunity is still there for the taking as the Pelicans rank dead-last in opponent FG% around the rim (less than five feet), precisely where SGA likes to make his bread.
Via Statmuse.com
Detroit Guards, vs. IND (Killian Hayes, Rodney McGruder, Cory Joseph) DraftKings Preferred
All three players are underpriced relative to their projections, with the Pistons severely shorthanded tonight. Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo, and Alex Burks have already been ruled out, while Marvin Bagley III is questionable. Minutes and fantasy production are up for grabs, meaning someone or some combination of the remaining guards must step up to fill the void.
Hayes (0.92 FPTS/min) is the best fantasy producer of the trio and projects for the most minutes, but he's also the most expensive, and Detroit has proven to be volatile with their rotations. McGruder (0.60 FPTs/min) is the cheapest and should play minutes in the mid-20s, but he's also the worst per-minute fantasy producer of the three players in question. Joseph is a steady, consistent veteran but unlikely to pop for a ceiling game here. These guys are cheap and will see an elevated role in a premier matchup as the Pacers allow the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams and rank 26th in defensive rating.
Also consider: Josh Okogie, R.J. Hampton, Chris Paul, Patrick Beverley, Devin Booker, CJ McCollum, Derrick White, Jaylen Brown
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Tim Hardaway Jr., vs. MEM (FD: $5,600, DK: $5,300) If Irving is inactive
Guess who leads the Mavericks in usage rate at 29.2% with Irving, Doncic, and Dinwiddie off the floor this season? If you're reading this column, you have the cognitive ability to read section headers, so you probably guessed it already (technically, Jaden Hardy ranks first at 29.4%, but he won't play enough minutes to be an option on tonight's slate). THJ also averages 0.94 FPTS/min with those three out, and he will see as many minutes as he can handle if Irving is ultimately ruled out. Applying 0.94 FPTS/min to his 37-minute projection gives him 34.78 DK points - a 6.56x value projection that tops the slate. The Grizzlies aren't the most favorable team to face from a fantasy perspective, but they've been (unsurprisingly) worse since Steven Adams has been out with his injury.
Jayson Tatum, vs. ATL (FD: $10,800, DK: $10,600)Â
Tatum is my favorite pay-up option on the slate, with Giannis ailing and Curry way overpriced relative to his recent production. Tatum has missed 5x in three of his last five games, but he needs 53 DK points to his 5x value tonight, and he averages 52.3 DK points per game this season. He has also put up at least 60 DK points in four of his last eight games, so whether you're willing to roll the dice on him hitting another ceiling game here is up to you.
You can sign me up for that, as the Celtics are taking on the Hawks tonight and rank #1 out of the 18 teams in my K-Grade model (which incorporates vital metrics to determine the best spots for fantasy production). The Hawks allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing teams and the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing power forwards. It's a dream spot for one of the NBA's top stars - don't think too hard about this.
Also consider: Torrey Craig, Reggie Bullock, Josh Green, John Collins, Brandon Ingram, DeMar DeRozan
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Christian Wood, vs. MEM (FD: $6,000, DK: $5,400)Â If Irving is inactive
This is an absurdly low price for Wood, assuming we get the news that Kyrie Irving will join Luka Doncic on the sidelines tonight. His 1.43 FPTS/min rate with the two stars off the floor paces the team by a wide margin, and his 28.1% usage rate is nothing to sneeze at, either. The problem for him has been a lack of playing time, as his minutes fluctuate wildly on a nightly basis as he has played third fiddle to Doncic and Irving. He received 26 minutes last game - with Irving active - and put up a solid 26.5 DK point performance. He'll have to take on an even larger role tonight if Irving is out, and if he comes anywhere close to his 1.46 FPTS/min average, he will smash value against the Grizzlies tonight. Memphis has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing centers over their last seven and 15 games.
Also consider: Jalen Duren, Mark Williams, James Wiseman, Jonas Valanciunas, Deandre Ayton, Nikola Vucevic
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