RADIO
We're back to the typical small weekend slate after we were treated with an outlier nine-game slate last night. We'll have to evaluate options from each team with only six to choose from on this slate, but it's clear that the Pacers-Grizzlies and Pelicans-Bucks matchups are the ones to target tonight. The Grizzlies, in particular, are very appealing as they rate out the best in my K-Grade model and will be without Desmond Bane tonight in addition to big man Steven Adams. Donovan Mitchell is questionable to make his return to action tonight. Thankfully, he's the only stud with a questionable tag on this slate. Let's get to it.
*UPDATE* The Pelicans have ruled out McCollum and Ingram while the Clippers have ruled out Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Mix and match value pieces from these two teams to make lineups with some combination of Morant and Giannis.
Here are my daily fantasy basketball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on 1/29/23. Keep an eye on RotoBaller’s NBA injury news and also our full NBA injury report today to stay up to date before lineups are locked.
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DraftKings and FanDuel Guards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
T.J. McConnell, vs. MEM (FD: $7,700, DK: $6,900)Â DraftKings preferred
How can we possibly fade this guy on DraftKings? He needs 34.5 DK points to hit 5x value tonight, and he has produced games of 45, 45.75, 55.5, and 56.25 DK points over his last seven games. Since star Tyrese Haliburton went out with a knee injury, he has been a force to be reckoned with (relative to his salary). He's not a high-usage player and has never been, but he has been a useful contributor in the points, rebounds, assists, and steals categories and is averaging a solid 1.22 FPTS/min over the last two weeks.
The Pacers-Grizzlies matchup is the most appealing game environment on the board tonight. We can exploit one particular angle by getting to McConnell (and/or Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Chris Duarte). Memphis has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards over their last seven games. They rank middle-of-the-pack in the same metric for the season, but something has gone awry with their ability to slow down opposing point guards lately.
Dillon Brooks, vs. IND (FD: $5,200, DK: $4,900)
I'm not a fan of Dillon Brooks, and I'm certainly not a fan of rostering him in my DFS lineups. Sometimes, we all have to do things we would rather not do. Tonight is one of those nights. Desmond Bane is doubtful and will likely join Steven Adams on the sideline again, which gives Brooks another chance to have a higher-usage game and huck up a ton of shots. His shooting has been downright terrible this year, but volume is king, and the Grizzlies don't have other options outside Ja Morant. The good news here is that the matchup against the Pacers should boost Brooks' outlook as they allow the second-most fantasy points per game to shooting guards and small forwards this season. We only need about 25 DK points out of Brooks for him to hit 5x value tonight, but I can see him hitting a "ceiling" game with at least 30 DK points in this favorable matchup.
Also consider: Andrew Nembhard, Donovan Mitchell, CJ McCollum, Caris LeVert (if Mitchell sits), Darius Garland (if Mitchell sits)
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DraftKings and FanDuel Forwards - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Giannis Antetokounmpo, vs. NOP (FD: $11,600, DK: $11,600)
The "top pay-up option" tonight is a split decision between Giannis and Ja Morant. Morant will enjoy the more appealing game environment, but Giannis has a much higher potential ceiling, and that's breaking the tie for me tonight. His salary is lower than where we usually see it, so this is a great time to hop back on board and enjoy the ride. The Greek Freak put up 70.5 DK points with a 41/12/6/1/1 line his last time out, and he has a chance to go even higher against the Pelicans tonight. New Orleans ranks up there with the best in defensive metrics, but they won't have Zion Williamson out there, and I'm betting on Giannis to get the best of the likes of Ingram, Valanciunas, Marshall, and the rest of the gang.
Buddy Hield, vs. MEM (FD: $7,100, DK: $6,400)
I'm loading up on this game, and you should too. Hield remains affordable despite exceeding what he needs for 5x value tonight in four consecutive games. He holds a 20.2% usage rate and 1.04 FPTS/min rate with Haliburton off the floor. While those rates don't inspire a ton of confidence, his consistent playing time and high shooting volume certainly should. He plays 36-39 minutes in competitive contests and typically takes at least 15 shots (around ten 3PTs) per game. We have to love that volume tonight against a Grizzlies team that allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to shooting guards this season.
Also consider: Jaren Jackson Jr., Nicolas Batum, Larry Nance Jr., Paul George, Santi Aldama, Terance Mann, Cedi Osman, Herbert Jones
DraftKings and FanDuel Centers - NBA DFS Lineup Picks
Brandon Clarke, vs. IND (FD: $6,000, DK: $5,300)
As shown in the K-Grade model at the top of the article, Clarke and the Grizzlies are in the most favorable spot for DFS production tonight. They hold the highest implied total, the matchup projects as the fastest-paced, and the Pacers allow the most fantasy points per game of any team on the slate. They particularly struggle against opposing bigs as they're allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to power forwards and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to centers this season.
This is great news for the affordable Clarke, who has recently stepped into the starting lineup with Steven Adams sidelined. He has been effective and efficient with his opportunity, amassing 33.5 and 33.25 DK points over 32 and 28 minutes, respectively. His usage and FPTS/min rates don't change with Adams and Desmond Bane (doubtful for tonight) off the floor, but that's perfectly fine as long as he gets the minutes he has been seeing in this incredible matchup. Triple-J is also a great option; he's just a bit more expensive.
Also consider: Myles Turner, Evan Mobley, Brook Lopez, Ivica Zubac
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