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Every week at RotoBaller, we have an awesome column called "Are You For Real?", where Elliott Baas analyzes a pair of pitching performances to determine if they are meaningful or just outliers.
After watching two young pitchers turn in their best starts of the season Monday night, I was inspired to follow his lead with a quick analysis of these starts before they get lost in the shuffle and the week gets away from us.
Today we are looking at dominant outings from left-hander Cole Ragans - who is making Texas fans say, "Why couldn't he do that for us," since the Rangers just had to trade for multiple starters for the playoff run, and Gavin Williams - the talented young right-hander from Cleveland who had not yet flashed his upside before Monday night's start against Toronto.
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Cole Ragans, Kansas City Royals – 18% Rostered
8/7 vs. BOS: 6.2 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 11 K
Let's fill in some of the backstory here on Ragans. He's a former first-round pick of the Texas Rangers and a guy who had a lot of minor-league success. He came up with Texas briefly last year and made 9 starts spanning just 40 innings. He finished with an unimpressive 4.95 ERA, 15% K%, and 9% BB%.
He pitched just 25 innings out of the Texas bullpen this season as a long reliever before being sent to Kansas City in the Aroldis Chapman trade. The Royals sent him to their Triple-A team for a month to stretch him out before bringing him up in mid-July to make his first start in Kansas City.
He pitched well in that start against Tampa Bay, allowing just one run on four hits and two walks but striking out just three. There wasn't all that much to get excited about yet.
But then he spun six scoreless innings against the Mets on August 3rd, striking out eight while walking just one hitter. That certainly got my attention, but I wondered if it was more a fluke based on the Mets being lousy against lefties this season and playing some uninspired baseball after the trade deadline saw them ship off Verlander and Scherzer.
Then Ragans did it again, pitching beautifully on Monday night. He had all five pitches working well and piled up 11 strikeouts against a respectable Boston lineup.
Please enjoy all 11 of Dahta office member Cole Ragans' strikeouts last night vs. BOS
wStuff+ by pitch type last night:
FB - 137 (2 Ks)
CH - 131 (5 Ks)
SL - 112 (2 Ks)
FC - 107 (1 Ks)
CU - 75 (1 K looking)Is this good PC @T_Zombro24?
Metrics ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/cpHfK6SkZX
— Rylan Domingues (@RylanDomingues) August 8, 2023
The wStuff+ numbers are impressive with only the curveball grading out below average. When we look at his Statcast report for the game we can see that he touched 98 MPH with his fastball and consistently sat around 96 all night. He has some really nice velocity differential from his fastball down to his best pitch - the changeup - which sits around 86 MPH. The change had a silly 69% whiff rate and a solid 40% CSW% against Boston.
While the curveball is easily his worst pitch according to the metrics, he can throw it to righties to keep them honest and it creates even more velocity differential as he throws it around 82 MPH.
His cutter checks in at 89 MPH and while it doesn't generate many whiffs, the velocity makes his fastball play up and his slider looks slower at 86 MPH. So far he's thrown it lefties more, but I think he should try to come in on righties with it more going forward as he has used his slider very successfully against LHH.
He's clearly made some adjustments since coming to Kansas City and while he may have tightened up his mechanics or changed his pitch mix a bit, the improvement may just have a lot to do with regaining his confidence and knowing he has a chance to be develop into an ace for a new team.
His Statcast sliders show that his only real weaknesses have been walks, his curveball (which we knew), and not getting hitters to chase pitches out of the zone.
Verdict:
Through three starts as a Royal, the results have been fantastic.
17.2 IP, 15 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 22 K
And while the sample size is still very small, the fact is that we have a young pitcher who has dominated in two straight starts and has a history of minor-league success. Texas probably gave up on him far too soon.
It might be hyperbole to say it, but I think he has Shane McClanahan or Jesus Luzardo-type upside based on what he's done since joining the Royals. He was less than 10% rostered when I started writing this article yesterday and is one of the hottest pickups in baseball right now. I would add him in any size of league right now and see if we have a blossoming ace in the making with Ragans.
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians – 30% Rostered
8/7 vs. TOR: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 12 K
Williams wasn't able to secure the win but pitched brilliantly against the Blue Jays on Monday night as he set a career-high with 12 strikeouts. The Cleveland rookie is a former first-round pick who has been fast-tracked to the big leagues after spending only a year and a half in the minor leagues.
Gavin Williams put on a show last night.#ForTheLand pic.twitter.com/TQb5movcOh
— Cleveland Guardians (@CleGuardians) August 8, 2023
Williams lowered his ERA to 2.90 and his WHIP to 1.20. His K% now sits at 24.3% through his first nine major league starts and the strikeouts have really been what's missing for Williams considering he was at 30% or better throughout stops at each level of the minors last year and this year.
Here's a look at the Statcast data from his start on Monday night.
The pitch mix was not drastically different from what he has been doing so far this year. He threw a few more sliders than usual and his velocity was up a tick on all of his pitches. But a 50% CSW% and 48% whiff rate on his fastball seem like an outlier performance, even if he does throw his four-seamer 95-96 MPH.
His stuff is clearly very good, especially his slider and curveball which both check in with whiff rates around 28% on the season. His lack of control has really hurt him and that was one of the biggest differences on Monday night. He had walked three or more hitters in half of his starts going into this game and his only one-walk starts had come against an impatient Kansas City team that he beat twice.
In fact, he has faced the Royals three times in his first nine starts so seeing him dominate a much better offense was important.
He was able to locate his offspeed pitches all night against the Jays, which likely made his fastball play up and probably led to those gaudy swing-and-miss numbers. Check out how he tunnels the fastball and curveball here.
Gavin Williams, 96mph Fastball and 76mph Curveball, Individual Pitches + Overlay.
11th K pic.twitter.com/pmPNM8rFQr
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 8, 2023
Verdict:
Williams is an immensely talented young pitcher and with Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen both pitching well as rookies this season, the Cleveland rotation is in good shape for years to come. It stands to be seen whether or not the improved control he showed on Monday will stick, but when he can locate all three of his pitches (fastball, slider, curveball), it's clear what he can do.
He's likely owned in deep leagues already, but he's a pickup in shallower leagues right now, too, based on his potential. If things have clicked for him now and this start is a sign of things to come, then he's going to be a guy who could help your team in a big way down the stretch.
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