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Buy At Your Own Risk
The Boston Red Sox did their damage before December rolled around this offseason, securing Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval to long-term deals to solidify their infield. Combined with full seasons from Mookie Betts and Rusney Castillo, expectations are high in Beantown to become a juggernaut offense. On that note, let me burst the bubble by saying David Ortiz is going to be a bust in 2015.
Betting against Big Papi has not been among the wisest decisions in recent years. Aside from an injury-shortened 2012 campaign, Ortiz has produced at least 28 HR and 96 RBI since 2009 and has eclipsed over 600 PA in each of those seasons. He’s been such a steady producer for the BoSox but he has one major factor not on his side; father time.
At age 39 he’s the oldest everyday player in baseball and is a likely candidate for regression. Paul Swydan of the Boston Globe published a great article highlighting the challenges for players over 39 to maintain their power numbers. Only seven players 39 or older managed a .220 ISO (Isolated Power); Barry Bonds, Ted Williams, Reggie Jackson, Cy Williams, Andres Galarraga, Steve Finley, and Willie McCovey. Only one player over 39 posted a qualified season in 2014 – Derek Jeter. Safe to say he wasn't a fantasy commodity.
Those statistics don’t directly correlate to Ortiz’s demise, but there are alarming signs from his 2014 campaign. He produced a career-worst .256 BABIP which was 45 points worse than his career level (.301) while his .355 OBP and .369 wOBA were his worst since 2009. Furthermore, his line drive rate dipped to 17.7% (22.6% in 2013), while his fly ball rate increased to 45.7% (38.7% in 2013).
This doesn't mean he’s doomed - his ISO did not change from 2013 (.255) and he’s going to be heavily protected in that lineup. The issue here is Ortiz is currently ranked the 8th overall 1B according to our rankings, which equates to an early to mid-round pick to secure his services.
For me there is too much risk to invest in a 39 year old, even if he doesn't have to sniff the field. Adrian Gonzalez is a safer pick in that tier, but if you miss out on the big bats early (Cabrera, Goldschmidt, Abreu, Encarnacion, Bautista, Rizzo) there’s no reason not to wait on a first base. You could be looking at similar numbers from the likes of Chris Davis and Adam LaRoche for half the cost. Save your pick and thank me later (or tear me to shreds if I'm wrong).
