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Daily Fantasy Golf DraftKings Picks (PGA DFS): PGA Championship


Welcome back RotoBallers! Sung Kang won the AT&T Byron Nelson (-23) by two strokes over Scott Piercy and Matt Every.

In this article, I will be providing you with my  DraftKings PGA DFS lineup picks for the PGA Championship. My goal as always is to help put together your optimal daily fantasy golf lineups. You can also track my selections against every other fantasy golf expert on dailyoverlay.com

If anyone has lineup questions before the start of the tournament Thursday morning, feel free to contact me via Twitter @SethFinkTV.

Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.  Sign Up Now!

 

PGA Championship - PGA DFS Overview

The PGA Tour heads to Farmingdale, N.Y. for the PGA Championship. This is usually the final major of the season played in August, but with the the schedule change, it's been moved up to May making it much more relevant.

Bethpage State Park Black plays to around 7,400 yards.  There are four par-3's, 11 par-4's, and two par-5's. The par-5's were the easiest holes in terms of scoring average during the 2012 and 2016 Barclays. Bethpage has also recently hosted 2002 and 2009 U.S. Open. The 15th hole has been the hardest hole at those U.S. Open's.

The greens are Poa annua, small and fast. There are at least two bunkers per hole, around 75 in all, and only one water hazard (par-3 8th hole).

Now, it rained all day Sunday and Monday in New York so the course is going to be very soft and players will go low. It's also going to be chilly in the mornings and windy throughout the weekend.

 

Let's take a look at the stats:

Stat Bethpage State Park (Black) (2012, 2016 stats) Tour Average
Driving Distance 289 283
Driving Accuracy 60% 61%
GIR Percentage 63% 66%
Scrambling Percentage 55% 57%
Average three-putts per round 0.61 0.56

Last year's cut line was three-under.

Player Strokes Gained Total (last five PGA's)
Jason Day 61.68
Brooks Koepka 58.68
Rickie Fowler 45.55
Henrik Stenson 37.84
Jordan Spieth 36.39

The defending champion is Brooks Koepka. Past winners are Justin Thomas, Jimmy Walker, Jason Day, Rory McIlroy, Jason Dufner, McIlroy again, Keegan Bradley, and Martin Kaymer.

In Vegas, as of Tuesday on sportsbook.ag, Tiger Woods and Brooks Koepka are the co-favorites at 10-1. Dustin Johnson is 11-1 and Rory McIlroy is 12-1.

My custom stat model will be focusing on the following,

 

Fantasy Golf Lineup Picks for DraftKings (PGA DFS)

High-Priced DFS Players 

There are five four players this week priced above $10,000;

Tiger Woods ($11,300) - I don't think Woods should be the highest-priced player, but that means there's plenty of value elsewhere. However, this is a course Woods knows well. He won the 2002 U.S. Open here (after winning the green jacket that same year), was T-6 at the 2009 U.S. Open, and T-38 at the 2012 Barclays. His scoring average through those 12 rounds is 70.17. Woods is ranked 16th in my custom rankings and I think that's fair. He hasn't played since the Masters and like I said, there's plenty of value elsewhere. You have to pay the Tiger premium to go with him.

Dustin Johnson ($11,100) - DJ ranks second in my custom rankings. His game is tailor-made for this course. He can out-drive all other players on tour setting himself out for a 125-yard approach shot. How nice would it be to go driver, pitching wedge, putter every single hole. When DJ is clicking, that's the only three clubs he needs. His putting is usually what scares me, but through the last 24 rounds, he's first three-putt avoidance, second in strokes gained putting. That's putting on all greens, but his last 24 rounds on Poa Annua, he's first in three-putt avoidance and third in strokes gained putting. Poa is actually his best putting surface by a wide margin.

He's coming in under-the-radar and that's because all eyes are on Tiger.

Rory McIlroy ($10,900) - Here's my top-ranked player. McIlroy was the hottest player on tour going into the Masters and he ended up finishing T-21, which is disappointing for him. He has a similar game to DJ with how far he hits it, but his putting statistically is not good. Despite that, the softer greens will greatly benefit him. I also like that he played since Augusta, recording a T-8 at the Wells Fargo.

Brooks Koepka ($10,400) - How can you not pick the defending champ here? This guy lives for majors. He only cares about majors. Koepka's length will be a major boost. And I don't even care that he's 31st in my custom rankings. He's off a fourth-place finish at the Byron Nelson so his game is in form.

Justin Thomas ($10,100) - JT hasn't played since a T-12 at Augusta. There's nothing from his game that pops out to me. He'll finish in the top-20, but if he's to make a serious charge at the championship, he'll need to be outstanding. JT has withdrawn due to a wrist injury.

 

Middle-Priced DFS Players

Jon Rahm ($9,500) - We have not seen Rahm since a T-9 at the Masters. He has good stats for the course, but the only thing that could get in his way is himself. If he gets frustrated, he can implode.

Rickie Fowler ($9,300) - If you only read my columns for the majors, you'll know I pick Fowler to win every time. I've bet him to win the last nine majors and will continue to until he wins that first one. I love that he's coming in under-the-radar off some good performances. After a quiet T-9 at the Masters, he went out and finished T-4 at the difficult Wells Fargo Championship. I firmly believe Fowler gets into the top-10, but he'll need to overcome traditional Sunday struggles at majors. At least he has experience here with a T-7 at the 2016 Barclays.

Xander Schauffele ($9,100) - The X-Man has put himself on the map thanks to great performances in majors including most recently, a runner-up at Augusta. Besides for fairway accuracy, he checks all the boxes.

Jason Day ($9,000) - This is my pick to win this week. He's been having a good quiet season. The Aussie has been struggling to split the fairway this season, but man can he putt. He's first in strokes gained putting on Poa greens in the last 24 rounds and seventh in three-putt avoidance. He was T-4 at the 2016 Barclays so he has the experience needed to win his second PGA Championship.

Paul Casey ($8,300) - This is my third-ranked player. I understand he burned a lot of people after his disastrous performance at Augusta last month, but he bounced back with a T-4 at the Wells Fargo. While he ranks 54th in driving distance through the last 24 rounds, he is first in GIR's in that same span.

Patrick Cantlay ($8,200) - Cantlay comes in off great form; T-9 at the Masters and T-3 at the RBC Heritage. His stats are good, and he's also a solid Poa putter.

Adam Scott ($8,100) - He has not played since a T-18 at the Masters. He struggles to putt on Bermuda and Bentgrass but on Poa, he thrives.

Bubba Watson ($8,000) - This is my boom or bust play. He'll either miss the cut by a lot or finish top-15. Here's why I like him; he can drive the ball a mile, he's a good Poa putter, and he's also finished inside the top-20 in all three of his Bethpage appearances.

Sergio Garcia ($7,900) - Expect a low-ownership for Sergio after most people remember he was cut at the Masters. He did however rebound very nicely with a T-4 at the Wells Fargo. This won't be his first time facing this difficult golf course as he was T-10 at the 2010 U.S. Open. He's a great ball striker and that's why he ranks seventh in my custom rankings.

Joel Dahmen ($7,300) - Dahmen is looking to build off a solo runner-up at the Wells Fargo last week. He's in the green in a lot of the stats I'm focusing on. His ability to split the fairway and put it close to the pin will keep him through the weekend.

Keegan Bradley ($7,200) - Through the last 24 rounds, the 2011 PGA Champ is second in ball striking and proximity. The problem is he isn't a good putter on Poa surfaces. But with the greens being soft for at least the first two days, that could get him to the weekend.

Ryan Palmer ($7,200) - We always get a random PGA Champion every once in a while from the likes of Jimmy Walker to Y.E. Yang. Could Palmer be it? Who knows, but I do know Palmer can stroke the ball. He does have trouble on Poa surfaces. However, he did finish T-13 at the 2016 Barclays.

Jhonattan Vegas ($7,100) - Vegas can really hit it off the tee which is why he's 15th in birdies or better gained in the last 24 rounds. He was T-22 at the 2016 Barclays.

 

Low-Priced DFS Players

Max Homa ($6,900) - Homa comes in hot after winning the Wells Fargo two weeks ago. He should have enough birdie opportunities to make the cut.

Cameron Champ ($6,900) - I'm only going with him because he can absolutely mash the ball and that's a major benefit on a long course like Bethpage.

Russell Knox ($6,700) - All his stats are good except for his putting, but hopefully the damp greens benefit him.

Adam Hadwin ($6,500) - He's made his last two cuts, RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo, so he comes in in good form. I was shocked to him priced this low with the stats he has. See below.

 

Custom Rankings

NOTE: The rankings were messed up due to six players being ranked in the top-six due to only have one stat showing. To find out the actual rank, just subtract six from the my rank column.

 

More PGA Analysis and DFS Lineup Picks


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