D/ST Matchups to Target in Divisional Round - Philadelphia, Detroit, Baltimore

January 17, 2025

Thunder Dan's favorite D/ST matchups to exploit for the Divisional Round of the 2025 NFL playoffs - DFS defenses to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These D/ST matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

Sometimes the right defense can make all the difference! While defenses are usually the lowest-scoring position in a DFS lineup, all it takes is a big defensive play or a special teams touchdown to create some separation from the other defenses in the player pool and push your lineup over the top!

Remember, we don't have to avoid games with high totals; sometimes those games produce a lot of offensive value and value for defenses, too, through turnovers, defensive touchdowns, or special teams touchdowns.

So, let's break down what we think are this week's best options at this position. We only have eight teams to choose from and while paying for a cheap defense always helps create more salary cap, I'm going to recommend paying up for some of the better units this week.

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST vs. L.A. Rams

$3.4k on DraftKings, $4.7k on FanDuel

The Eagles will cost you a pretty penny this week, but there's certainly an argument for paying up for this unit that finished the season as the top-rated defense in DVOA rating.

Eagles defense 2024 analytics:

- EPA: 2nd
- DVOA: 1st
- Scoring defense: 1st
- Explosive plays defense: 1st
- Takeaways: 2nd

They are the youngest defense in the league.#Eagles pic.twitter.com/Pmg0Osqkd5

— Thomas R. Petersen (@thomasrp93) January 15, 2025

As you can see, this team hasn't only limited opponents' production in terms of scoring and yardage, they have excelled in creating turnovers. Philly had 17 interceptions in the regular season and then forced Jordan Love into three more last week while also recovering a fumble.

Matthew Stafford has no mobility and relies on getting the ball out quickly to avoid opposing pass rushes. He was sacked just 28 times this year but five of those came against the Eagles in their first meeting.

In general, the Rams were pretty good at avoiding turnovers this season, but if they're forced into a pass-heavy game script that certainly raises the chances of sacks, strip sacks, and interceptions. We also have some snow and winds expected in Philly for this one, which could make it even messier for the Rams.

Detroit Lions D/ST vs. Washington Commanders

$3.2k on DraftKings, $4.2k on FanDuel

Detroit's defense has been banged up this season and I know Jayden Daniels has done an extraordinary job of taking care of the football, too. However, I think there's some merit to investing in the Lions here when other players may shy away from them based on the 55.5-point total in this game.

The Lions finished the regular season with 1.4 takeaways per game which was good enough for 9th in the NFL. They brought a ton of pressure against Sam Darnold in Week 18 and shut down an elite Vikings offense in a dominating win. That got my attention and should have the rest of the league worried as they already have one of the best offenses in football.

In some ways, their offense plays into this equation, too. I expect Detroit to move the ball effectively and put up a lot of points. That's going to put enormous pressure on Daniels and the Commanders to score on as many drives as possible. We saw them go for it on several fourth downs last week and they'll also have to try to air the ball out more than they'd like as Detroit is also going to focus on taking away their run game on early downs.

I wouldn't be surprised if an opportunistic Detroit defense ends up posting a big number in this game, even if they allow a large number of points, too.

Baltimore Ravens D/ST at Buffalo Bills

$2.9k on DraftKings, $4.1k on FanDuel

I am not hunting turnovers here as much as the Bills were the top team in giveaways this season (only 0.4 per game). Josh Allen has been known to play a bit too loose and free with the football, but that has certainly not been the case this season.

The Ravens' defense has improved in a major way from earlier in the season. They struggled against the pass through the first eight or nine weeks but made some personnel changes and finished out the season with the top-rated defensive unit in the second half.

Ravens played the Bills Week 4 and beat them 35-10 with the 32nd ranked passing defense at the time…

Now the Bills go on to play the #1 ranked defense. pic.twitter.com/amtFBOjU4E

— Allison Waite (@nosilla38) January 13, 2025

The price is nice on this Ravens unit and the weather is going to be a factor in this one, too, with cold temperatures that can make catching passes difficult expected in Buffalo.

This game has a high total, but I think both teams are likely to focus on running the football and avoiding mistakes which could lend itself to low-scoring contest.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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