July 25, 2017

Steve Halupka recommends some players to fade or avoid in points-per-reception (PPR) formats. These players could be busts in 2017 fantasy football drafts.

One of most simple, yet undervalued pieces of fantasy advice is always “play and draft to your league settings”. Players should take this to heart especially when it comes to league scoring settings. The difference between PPR (points per reception), half PPR and standard can really go a long way in determining a team’s chances for success after and during the league draft or auction.

Players drafting in PPR leagues especially need to be aware of the impact of receptions in overall scoring at the running back, wide receiver positions especially. There was only one running back in the top ten of PPR scorers with fewer than ten receptions in 2016 and that was LeGarrette Blount who scored 18 touchdowns. The need for receptions is even more drastic at wide receiver with no top ten finishers catching lower than 75 passes.

There are players that will be taken in every draft regardless of format that have the upside to be league winners, but fantasy owners may want to think twice about selecting the following players at their current ADP (average draft position) in PPR leagues due to their lack of upside they bring in the passing game.

Early Round PPR Fades

Marshawn Lynch, Oakland Raiders (2.09)

If Lynch’s ADP in a standard league was 2.09 that would certainly be acceptable (he’s currently going 2.05 in standard according to Fantasy Football Calculator for those that are wondering), but in a PPR league that’s a bit of a stretch. Even in one of his most productive years, in 2014 where Lynch finished as the number four running back on the season, he only saw 48 targets. He did see 67 targets in one season, but that was in Buffalo in 2008 as a 22 year old, not as a 31 year old coming out of retirement.

The combination of Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington will also limit Lynch’s potential targets and receptions as the two totaled 62 targets of their own in their rookie seasons in 2016. Lynch does have the potentially to score double digit touchdowns behind on the number seven offensive line heading into 2017 according to Pro Football Focus, but in PPR leagues players like Leonard Fournette (pick 2.11) should be going ahead of him due to the lack of clarity in his passing game role.

Allen Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars (3.10)

One of the fantasy breakouts from 2015, Allen Robinson plummeted back to earth in the 2016 season after totaling 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2015. A large contributor to his 2016 regression (883 yards and 6 touchdowns) was the lack of “garbage time” production (Robinson had 436 yards and five touchdowns in 2015 vs. 229 yards and just one touchdown in games where his team was losing by seven or more points).

We certainly cannot predict how all games will finish in the NFL this season, but the Jaguars do stand to be in tighter games with an improved defense yet again and re-emphasis on the running game behind rookie Leonard Fournette. Robinson will also have to be more efficient with his targets in 2017 as he’s only caught 50.3% of his total targets in the last two seasons. His lack of efficiency in hauling in passes and inconsistent production are reasons why drafting Alshon Jeffery or Sammy Watkins two picks later at 3.12 over Robinson would certainly be better options in PPR leagues.

Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Pirates (4.09)

There is certainly no question about the talent of Martavis Bryant, when he is on the field; he’s as dynamic of a wide receiver as there is in the NFL. The big issue standing in the way of Bryant’s PPR success will be the ever-present Antonio Brown. Brown has seen no lower than 154 targets in any season since 2013 (his 154 targets were fifth in 2016 after only playing 15 games). That being said, the Steelers have averaged nearly 600 pass attempts per season over the last 3 seasons, so in theory there should be targets to go around to the pass catchers not named Antonio Brown.

However, Bryant also faces an uphill climb in becoming the second most targeted player in Pittsburgh due to the presence of Le’Veon Bell. If Bell played 16 games last season, he was on pace for roughly 118 targets out of the 600 pass attempts from the Steelers passing game. With those two players taking up a large chunk of the targets in the Steeler’s passing game (about 273 out of the 600, or 46% on the conservative side), Bryant’s target upside may only be around 110 for the season.

Bryant also has the penchant for big plays, which in a PPR league can hurt his week to week output. His catch rate was second lowest among qualifying receivers in Pittsburgh in 2015 at 54.35%, only beating out Darrius Heyward-Bey, and going back to 2014 it was just 54.17%. Bryant will no doubt make some splash plays, but the week to week consistency needed for a top four round selection in a PPR league leaves a lot to be desired. Selecting Michael Crabtree (4.10) or Golden Tate (5.01) would provide a much more consistent player for your fantasy team.

Mid-Round PPR Fades

Adrian Peterson, New Orleans Saints (5.04)

It’s great to have goals in life, it really is, but when Adrian Peterson said his goal for the 2017 season was to have 500 receiving yards, it was met with a ton of skepticism. His career high in receiving yards was set back in the 2009 season with 436, nearly a decade ago. Since that time, Peterson has seen 30 or more receptions in only three of seven seasons.

He also will now be a part of a backfield that has two members (Mark Ingram and Travaris Cadet) that saw forty six and forty receptions a year ago respectively. Ingram should still factor in greatly in the passing game, while Cadet’s passing game load could be either moved to Peterson or rookie Alvin Kamara, not to mention that Cadet is still on the roster. All of the bodies in New Orleans add to the doubts about Peterson’s workload in the passing game, something that is essential to a top scoring PPR running back. Peterson has a penchant for disproving neigh-Sayers, but drafting CJ Anderson (5.10) or Dalvin Cook (6.04) would be wiser moves in a PPR league.

LeGarrette Blount, Philadelphia Eagles (6.06)

Talk about the definition of a fantasy cockroach. LeGarrette Blount simply will not die. Coming off a career year in 2016, Blount finds himself behind PFF’s number one offensive line heading into 2017 with the Philadelphia Eagles which is certainly a positive. However, Blount is certainly due for some regression. Prior to last season, Blount never scored more than eight touchdowns in a season (as stated before, he scored 18 in 2016). To make matters worse, Blount has never caught more than 15 passes in any season, which would have put him at the number 50 running back last season in total receptions.

Not only is Blount’s pass catching capping his PPR ceiling, but the Eagles have other running backs that are known as pass catchers to limit his upside. Over the last two seasons, Darren Sproles finished ninth and sixth in reception at the running back position, totaling 107 receptions over the time frame. Drafting Paul Perkins (6.11) or Mark Ingram (7.01) would be a better bet than Blount in the sixth round.

Late Round PPR Fades

Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans (9.08)

The highly-touted rookie for the Tennessee Titans is coming into the NFL with a ton of fanfare as the number five pick in this year’s NFL Draft. There was no doubt Davis was impressive as a collegiate with three straight years of over 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns. However, as he heads into the NFL, Davis will find much better competition for targets than what he saw at Western Michigan.

Newcomer Eric Decker has been a consistent presence over the last three seasons, especially in the red zone totaling 48 red zone targets over the three seasons (these numbers are even though Decker only played three games in 2016). He will not only potentially see lower target share in the red zone, but elsewhere on the field with a player like Rishard Matthews on the field as well. Matthews led all Titans wide receivers in targets in 2016 with 108 and looks to be a factor again for the Titans in 2017. Davis may burst onto the scene in his rookie season, but especially in PPR leagues where volume is king, drafting Quincy Enunwa (9.11) or Tyrell Williams (10.08) would be a wiser move.

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis