College Football Picks Against the Spread: Expert Betting Predictions for Thursday, September 25, and Friday, September 26 (Week 5)

Mike's Week 5 college football betting picks against the spread for Thursday, September 25, and Friday, September 26, 2025. Free CFB betting predictions, odds analysis, and ATS picks from RotoBaller.

Week 4 of the 2025 college football season brought some more upsets. Who would have guessed that Clemson and Florida would both be 1-3 and that Florida State would have more wins than they did in 2024?

No FCS teams collected scalps this week, and time is running out for them to collect more. There are only two FBS teams playing FCS teams this week. We're almost done with that madness.

We have another loaded weekend with 53 total games. We have one on Thursday and three more on Friday. All of those are FBS vs. FBS matchups this week. We'll also take a look back at my record for Week 4.

CFB Betting Picks for Week 5

I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.

I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.

Army at East Carolina (-4.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This line is already up two points. I get it. ECU is tough at home. This feels like a bit too much of an adjustment for North Texas beating Army. I like the Knights outright.

Pick: Army +4.5

(8) Florida State (-6.5) at Virginia

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Under a touchdown, huh? I really don't buy this. Virginia is far too inconsistent.

Pick: Florida State -6.5

(24) TCU at Arizona State (-2.5)

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I really like the over 54.5. The spread is a little tougher. Every part of me says that Josh Hoover and Eric McAlister can get to this defense. I expect a really good game here. I'll take TCU in a close one, but I'm not staking a lot on it.

Pick: TCU +2.5

Houston (-13.5) at Oregon State

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I can't say this line isn't deserved. Is Houston good enough to blow out Oregon State? The Beavers have looked awful against Texas Tech and Oregon, but chances are those are two playoff teams. Cal beat the Beavers by 19 in Corvallis. Houston, it is!

Pick: Houston -13.5

CFB Betting Picks - Last Week's Results

I promised transparency, and you will get it, warts and all. I don't like to be wrong, but I will admit when I am. Why listen to someone if they won't admit the good or the bad? I will preface this with an admission. I think I had a REALLY bad week. I hope I'm wrong, but from all of the games I watched, which were most of them, this may be one of my worst weeks ever.

You can track my wins and losses on this sheet. I have everything updated from 2014-18 and 2023-present. I'm still looking for missing articles from 2019 and 2020 to get a running total of all of my picks. Winners against the spread will be in bold. My result will follow.

Rice (-6.5) at Charlotte: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Rice controlled the game on the ground and played King Kong defense, knocking down nine of the 44 passes that Charlotte threw.

Tulsa at Oklahoma State (-11.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

HISTORY in Stillwater ‼️ For the first time since 1998, Tulsa has beaten Oklahoma State. Even bigger—it’s the Golden Hurricane’s first win in Stillwater since 1951. pic.twitter.com/gXxnbLhrui

— The Voice of College Football Network (@TheVOCFB) September 20, 2025

Tulsa beat Oklahoma State for the first time since 1998 (11 meetings) and won in Stillwater for the first time since 1951. Somehow, Mike Gundy still has a job...

Iowa (-2.5) at Rutgers: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

The Rutgers offense is good enough. They scored touchdowns on the first three drives of the game. The defense needs some work. Mark Gronowski showed some of what made him a champion at South Dakota State, but the Iowa receivers need to help him out.

(17) Texas Tech at (16) Utah (-2.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I underestimated just how good that Texas Tech defense was. Will Hammond is better than Behren Morton. The Red Raiders' offense didn't take off until Morton left with a concussion.

Arkansas (-7.5) at Memphis: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Piggies were up 28-10 at one point in this game, and still managed to lose. Some of it is that Memphis is a good team. However, an SEC team shouldn't blow a big lead like that on the road, even if Memphis is the favorite to claim the Group of 5 playoff spot. The SEC is supposed to be that much better than everyone else, right?

Maryland at Wisconsin (-9.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I know that it's all the rage to be confused as to why Mike Gundy and Luke Fickell still have jobs. Five years ago, they would have both been fired despite massive buyouts, but here's the thing: universities couldn't pay players five years ago. Now they can.

The universities would rather pay the players the money than waste it on buying out a coach. Wisconsin can save $5 million by keeping Fickell. It's not an endorsement of the coach. It's economics in a college football world gone mad.

In other news, Malik Washington is that dude. The November 22 matchup between Washington and Bryce Underwood is going to be must-see TV...and these bozos will probably slap it on Peacock.

Syracuse at Clemson (-16.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Cade Klubnik is a loose cannon.

The past two seasons:

• 15 INT
• 83 additional passes of his were broken up.

Today: pic.twitter.com/l5eTD4jzrs

— FIRST ROUND MOCK (@firstroundmock) September 20, 2025

Antonio Williams was back, and Clemson still got knocked around at home by Syracuse. Cade Klubnik even dared to throw shade at Syracuse in the post-game presser for injuries. Like that slowed the offense down. No, Cade, your inability to hit an open receiver slowed the offense down.

All the growth Cade Klubnik showed in 2024 is now gone. He's worse than the 2023 version. He has regressed to 2022, and Clemson is 1-3 for the first time since 2004 as a result. Clemson is also out of the top 25 for the first time since 2014.

SMU at TCU (-7.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Eric McAlister is a true big play threat

6’3, 200lb WR who has 254 yards and 3 TDs today 🤯 pic.twitter.com/tk4TurX1O7

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) September 20, 2025

To add insult to another loss, the over didn't even hit. TCU's defense was strong in this one. Josh Hoover and Eric McAllister dominated this game.

Bowling Green at Louisville (-25.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Cardinals only won by 23 thanks to two fourth-quarter touchdowns allowed to Bowling Green.

UNLV (-2.5) at Miami (OH): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5

At least I hit my only max bet of the week. I was sweating this early when UNLV fell behind 14-0.

North Texas (-1.5) at Army: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

North Texas blew a 21-0 lead, but ended up winning in overtime. Drew Mestemaker is something else. North Texas has had some good quarterbacks recently with Chandler Morris, Austin Aune, and Mason Fine. Mestemaker is better than all of them.

UAB at (15) Tennessee (-38.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Tennessee didn't score in the fourth quarter, and Jalen Kitna lit up the secondary to blow this cover.

Oregon State at (6) Oregon (-34.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Oregon dominated and won by 34. You can't make this stuff up...

Kent State at (7) Florida State (-44.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

The Seminoles scored 65 points in back-to-back games for the first time since 1992. Oh, and they already have more wins than last season.

(22) Auburn at (11) Oklahoma (-6.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Who would have thought that I needed that safety to hit the cover? It was definitely a strange game. For the record, that touchdown by Isaiah Sategna III isn't why.

Sategna is clearly inbounds standing a yard behind the ref. The ref was in perfect position to make a call if one was needed. Obviously Sategna checked with the ref to make sure that he was properly aligned.

There was no deception. It was just bad recognition on Auburns part!!! pic.twitter.com/PUTSuBISHC

— MR SOONER ⭕🙌🧬 (@MRSOONER75) September 22, 2025

Look at the other angle. Sategna was clearing his position with the official before the ball was snapped. Just because Auburn lost track of him because they were too busy jawing with Deion Burks doesn't mean that it was unfair tactics. The SEC apologizing to Auburn for that "missed call" is total crap.

If they wanted to apologize to Auburn for the blatant tackle of an Auburn receiver later in the game, I'm all for that. That one was so egregious that it should never be missed! It would have resulted in an Auburn first down instead of a punt. Would that have affected the game? Maybe. We'll never know.

The fact is that Auburn had two chances to take the lead inside of five minutes and couldn't do it. The 10 sacks of Jackson Arnold did more to lose the game for the Tigers than legal trickery or a missed tackle of a wide-open receiver.

The fact is that Auburn couldn't protect Jackson Arnold, and John Mateer beat them with a broken hand for 55 minutes.

Tulane at (13) Mississippi (-12.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Trinidad Chambliss will be the guy who leads Mississippi to the College Football Playoff. I'm not sure Austin Simmons could have done it. He still turns the ball over too frequently.

(21) Michigan (-2.5) at Nebraska: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Nebraska is now 0-29 in their last 29 games against Ranked Opponents.

They haven’t beat a ranked team since 2016. pic.twitter.com/zbuaZINhZU

— College Football Report (@CFBRep) September 20, 2025

That Rhule-Aid is some potent stuff. I'm pretty sure that it has vodka in it. Nebraska fans need some vodka after this one. The normally stout rush defense got abused in this one.

Purdue at (24) Notre Dame (-24.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Purdue scored 30 points on the Notre Dame defense and still got covered. I give up...

North Carolina vs. Central Florida (-6.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I'm curious as to how long it is going to take for a Bill Belichick-coached North Carolina team to show any semblance of a decent team. They're in the running for the worst Power 4 team right now, which is saying a lot.

Ball State at Connecticut (-21.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This was an ugly game all the way around. Cam Edwards was the only reason that UConn won this game.

James Madison (-8.5) at Liberty: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

James Madison finally let Alonza Barnett III play the entire game without switching with Matt Sluka, and look what happened? This is not a coincidence.

Louisiana (-2.5) at Eastern Michigan: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Wow, the Cajuns are terrible. Zylan Perry is going to be a huge asset for someone next year when he gets out of purgatory in Lafayette.

Troy at Buffalo (-6.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

Troy shutting down Al-Jay Henderson won the Trojans the game. It also helps that Tucker Kilcrease didn't turn the ball over, but the Troy passing game is still in shambles.

Toledo (-14.5) at Western Michigan: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Toledo didn't even score 14 points. Whoever bet on them winning the MAC is in trouble right now. The Rockets were one of the preseason favorites.

North Carolina State at Duke (-2.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I should have known when the Pack struggled with Wake Forest. The defense wasted big games from CJ Bailey and Hollywood Smothers.

Northern Illinois at Mississippi State (-21.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Mississippi State can win with or without a great game from Blake Shapen. I really like Fluff Bothwell in this offense. The Bulldogs aren't going to look invincible in SEC play, but they could win a game or two that they aren't expected to.

Temple at (18) Georgia Tech (-23.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

The Georgia Tech defense is what will keep them from being a playoff team.

West Virginia at Kansas (-13.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

West Virginia had their game of the season during the Backyard Brawl. This was domination by Kansas.

Delaware at Florida International (-4.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

I sure hope the powers that be let Delaware play in a bowl game. Look at the rest of the schedule. This team is winning at least six games.

Arkansas State (-4.5) at Kennesaw State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Kennesaw State is 2-2 after holding on to beat Arkansas State 28-21.

Owls QB Amari Odom was 25/34 for 308 yards and 1 TD with 101 yards and 1 TD rushing. Owls outgained Arkansas St 497-318.@SSN_Kennesaw @SSN_CUSA @kennesawstfb @CoachMack_KSU pic.twitter.com/4AhMxsSCjj

— Colton Pool (@CPoolReporter) September 21, 2025

Amari Odom dominated this game for the Owls. He looked awful against Indiana, but the Hoosiers proved that the defense is for real. This is the beginning for Odom. There are other teams he will do this to before the season is done.

South Carolina at (23) Missouri (-9.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

That Missouri backfield is the best in the country. I'm serious.

Ahmad Hardy through 4 Games:
-Yards 600
-TDs: 6
-Yard per Carry: 7.6

Derrick Henry through 4 Games (Heisman Season):
-Yards : 422
-TDs: 8
-Yards per Carry: 6.3

pic.twitter.com/ecFVAnGqvW

— SEC Numbers Guy (@secnumbersguy) September 22, 2025

It's not just Hardy. Backup Jamal Roberts would start for more than half of FBS schools, and QB Beau Pribula adds another element to this run game.

Marshall (-2.5) at Middle Tennessee State: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

The Herd bookended the game with 21-point quarters in the first and the fourth.

Nevada at Western Kentucky (-9.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I had to sweat this. Maverick McIvor struggled against the Nevada defense.

Boise State (-11.5) at Air Force: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

This one hurts. Air Force going for two and not making it blew this. Of course, the defense getting obliterated by Boise over the entire game makes it hard for me to complain.

Coastal Carolina at South Alabama (-14.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

This was just one of those games. South Alabama dominated, but three critical turnovers by Bishop Davenport led directly to points for the Chanticleers.

Florida at (4) Miami (FL) (-9.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Florida did show up, but the game got away from the Gators in the fourth quarter. The inability to stop Mark Fletcher Jr. in the second half doomed the Gators.

(9) Illinois at (19) Indiana (-6.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I completely underestimated the Indiana defense. I knew the offense was really good, but I didn't see them completely shredding Illinois. If Fernando Mendoza played for a "brand," he would be the Heisman favorite.

#Indiana QB Fernando Mendoza became only the second FBS player with 5 passing TDs and a 90% comp. pct vs. an AP ranked opponent in the last 30 years.

Simply put…he was incredible vs. Illinois. pic.twitter.com/tDRefSdUt4

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) September 22, 2025

Georgia State at (20) Vanderbilt (-27.5): HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Vanderbilt is just showing off. This was the first time the team had scored 70 points in a game since they scored 76 on an early incarnation of Tennessee in 1918.

Washington (-19.5) at Washington State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1

Blahshington State gave up four touchdowns in the fourth quarter to bury me. Zevi Eckhaus, who was solid for much of the game, was a complete disaster in the fourth.

Stanford at Virginia (-15.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Stanford still has a long way to go, especially on defense. Virginia is a really hard team to pin down this year. They have looked like an upper-tier ACC team at times. They have looked like UMass at others.

Arizona State at Baylor (-2.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Losing this on a last-second field goal is fitting for this week, I swear...

BYU (-6.5) at East Carolina: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Are people sleeping on Bear Bachmeier?

Bachmeier through 3 games:
🐻 42/63 (66.7%)
🐻 583 Total Yards
🐻 8 Total TDs
🐻 0 Turnovers
pic.twitter.com/qajrckWHRT

— SleeperCFB (@SleeperCFB) September 24, 2025

Bear Bachmeier, I'm sorry I underestimated you. It won't happen again.

Southern Mississippi at Louisiana Tech (-3.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Southern Miss has come a long way in the last two years, but I believe the hype that Louisiana Tech might win Conference USA.

Sam Houston at (8) Texas (-39.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

Arch Manning looked the part against arguably the worst pass defense in FBS.

Louisiana-Monroe at UTEP (-6.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

We got the good and the bad from Malachi Nelson in this one. We've seen flashes of the talent, but he still has a lot to learn.

UTSA (-4.5) at Colorado State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Colorado State HC Jay Norvell Has Named QB Jackson Brousseau As The Rams QB1

Brousseau Was 10/12, 83.3%, 78 Yds, & TD vs. UTSA Last Week

Brousseau Replaces QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi #GoCFB #CollegeFootball #RamGrit #ColoradoState @jacksonb2023 pic.twitter.com/03nSFXORI1

— CFB Nation 🏈 (@TheCFBNation) September 23, 2025

The Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi era is likely over in Fort Collins. I was one of the ones who thought he would succeed in this offense. The Rams gave him plenty of chances.

Wyoming at Colorado (-13.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4

I am sooooo done with Wyoming.

California (-13.5) at San Diego State: MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

I have no words...

Cal’s most recent shutout losses to non-P5 teams:
• 2025 San Diego State, 34-0
• 1970 Rice, 28-0
• 1966 San José State, 24-0
• 1943 Alameda Coast Guard, 7-0

— RedditCFB (@RedditCFB) September 21, 2025

Michigan State at (25) USC (-18.5): MISS!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3

Aidan Chiles looked good in his homecoming. The USC defense was exposed again by two of the supposed lesser offenses in the Big Ten. This is the hallmark of a Lincoln Riley team.

Fresno State (-2.5) at Hawaii: HIT!

Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2

I lost a dozen straight. I needed this one BADLY.

College Football Betting Season Results

This week was just as bad as I figured. I've had some bad weeks before. It comes with the territory. This might be my worst week ever. I hit the skids at 13-37, moving my season total to 85-105 before conference play begins in earnest. I'm afraid to see the points. Like, genuinely terrified.

The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.

1. 1-4 (10-10) = 0
2. 4-16 (28-41) = -26
3. 5-13 (31-32) = -3
4. 2-4 (16-16) = 0
5. 1-0 (5-6) = -5

I lost 54 points on the week, which is my worst week in recorded history (so far). I'm now down 34 points on the season. I'm not too far down to find my way back, but this is a tough week to take.

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