Free College Football Betting Picks - Week One Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/3/2022)

August 31, 2022

Our free college football betting picks for Week One (9/3/22) of the NCAA season. Nick's CFB best bets against the spread, teasers, parlays and moneylines.

We've made it. After a long offseason, college football has finally arrived. A full weekend slate of games features ranked vs. ranked matchups, including the marquee top 5 showdown between Notre Dame and Ohio State, and a fair share of interstate rivalries with Power 5 programs visiting Group of 5 programs, like NC State at East Carolina, North Carolina traveling to Appalachian State, and Virginia Tech traveling to Norfolk to take on Old Dominion.

In this weekly column, we'll explore some of the week's top matchups and opportunities to make some dough. In this season's opening rendition, we have a classic showdown between two Group of 5 teams in the west, a southern matchup between a middle-of-the-pack SEC program and a program aspiring to move up in conference realignment, and finally the long-awaited return of one of the top rivalries in the sport.

For Week One of the college football season, here are some expert money-line and over/under betting picks.

Tulsa @ Wyoming (+6.5)

O/U: 44.5

Often overlooked in the American Athletic Conference, head coach Philip Montgomery has quietly been building a foundation over his seven years at the helm. Quarterback Davis Brin returns after being the only player to throw a pass last season. Brin ended the season with over 3,000 passing yards, and got consistently better after the non-conference games ended, and the early returns from camp indicate he is taking a massive step forward in his senior season.

Graduate student Juancarlos Santana, whose favorite movie is The Godfather, will be Brin's top receiver, and the running game will feature an assortment of backs led by Texas A&M transfer Deneric Prince and holdover Steven Anderson. While the offense should be improved from a year ago, the defense, will be what separates Tulsa from the competition. In the team's final four games last season, they held three of their opponents under 20 points and hope to build onto that momentum into 2022.

Craig Bohl enters his ninth campaign in charge in Laramie, Wyoming, after a dominant run at the FCS-level with North Dakota State. The Cowboys have the benefit of coming into this game with a game under their belt, albeit a humiliating 38-6 defeat at the hands of Illinois. Quarterback Andrew Peasley, who transferred after being a four-year backup at Utah State, did little to inspire confidence in the opener, completing just 5 of 20 attempts for a meager 30 yards.

If the passing game is to get going, Peasley will be relying heavily on fellow team captain and tight end Treyton Welch, a junior who is a major breakout candidate if the team can get consistent quarterback play. Running back Titus Swen averaged 5.9 yards per carry in a backup role in 2021, and should provide a strong option in the backfield. On defense, Wyoming has consistently churned out NFL-caliber linebackers, with Chad Muma and Logan Wilson being two recent examples.

This year, Easton Gibbs hopes to join them as a tackling machine and consistent force to be reckoned with. Outside of Gibbs, there is a lot of turnover on defense. Wyoming as a whole only returns 34% of its total production from a season ago, as the tides of change are blowing in Laramie.

With just three seniors on the roster, Wyoming is entering a rebuilding year. Coach Bohl has proven that he can consistently generate winning programs, but programs still need to have the talent to compete with higher-level conference teams like Tulsa. I wouldn't bet on Wyoming being down for long, but the talent gap is too significant, even with the home field advantage.

Pick: Tulsa -6.5

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Memphis @ Mississippi State (-16)

O/U: 56.5

Under former coach Mike Norvell, the Memphis Tigers were a mainstay atop the AAC. Under Ryan Silverfield, after Norvell left for Tallahassee 3 offseasons ago, the team is just 14-10 since. In 2021, the Tigers got inspired play from freshman signal-caller Seth Henigan, who threw for 3,322 yards, 25 touchdowns, and only 8 interceptions.

Replacing top targets Calvin Austin III and Sean Dykes (combined 122 catches, 1,806 yards and 15 TDs) will prove to be a tall task that will be up to a trio of juniors in Javon Ivory, Eddie Lewis and tight end Caden Prieskorn. The defense has been a key contributor in some of the unfortunate losses over the past two years, and with a variety of turnover there are now five sophomores projected to start on defense, including three in the secondary. The youth may cause some issues in the early going for Memphis, but expect the Tigers to be a tough out for most teams come conference play.

Head coach Mike Leach is one of the most entertaining and unique personalities in college football, undoubtedly, and he's brought his quirky style and air raid offense to Starkville and the SEC. Quarterback Will Rogers is not getting much national recognition or respect despite a sparkling stat line in 2021 (73.9% completion percentage, 4,739 yards, 36 TDs/9 INTs). One-thousand yard receiver Makai Polk moved on to the NFL, but Leach returns plenty of weapons on the outside like reliable Jaden Walley, the 6-foot-5 Caleb Ducking and speedster Rufus Harvey, that will cause defensive backfields some trouble.

Up front, the offensive line is anchored by a two-deep that is entirely upperclassmen, and pass-catching running backs Jo'Quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson are back. The defense, meanwhile, is often put in some tough positions due to how quickly the offense operates. A quick three-and-out will put them right back on the field, which can be a recipe for disaster, as was seen in the 2021 Egg Bowl loss to Ole Miss, and again against Arkansas.

Two quick-strike offenses meeting in a rematch from last year could turn into a lot of points in a hurry. Last year's narrow Memphis win (31-29) included a drive by Mississippi State that ended on the 2-yard line with no points, and another by Memphis that ended in the red zone without even attempting a field goal. Assuming Memphis' skill position players can step up into the void left by Austin and Dykes, these teams could trade scores in the hopes of bringing another thrilling game between these teams who are less than three hours driving distance from each other.

Pick: Over 56.5 points

West Virginia @ Pittsburgh (-7.5) - THURSDAY

O/U: 51.5

The 127th rendition of the Backyard Brawl will be the season opener for these two hated rivals who are separated by a mere 75 miles along Interstate-79. Coach Neal Brown has had a mediocre kickoff to his tenure, and enters year four with a mountain of pressure and a 17-18 record in his three years. While the Mountaineers only return 9 of 22 total starters, they went aggressively into the transfer portal and came away with their likely starting quarterback in former USC and Georgia player JT Daniels, a consensus five-star recruit out of high school.

Across four seasons, Daniels has thrown 32 TDs and 16 INTs. The Mountaineers' offensive line, maligned as the worst in the Big 12 in terms of sacks allowed last year, should be improved due to continuity of all five starters returning, including All-Freshman American left tackle Wyatt Milum. Running back Leddie Brown departed for the NFL, and top receiver Winston Wright transferred to Florida State, but WVU does return some talented weapons including receivers Bryce Ford-Wheaton and Sam James, who combined for over 1,000 yards last season. T

he defense looks like it could be a question mark, especially in the secondary that is retooling from last season. Cornerback Charles Woods' four career starts are the only starts by a member of the Mountaineer secondary, and stalwart defensive tackle Dante Stills and his counterpart end Tajh Alston are the only returning players on defense with a full season of starting experience. Big things are expected from transfer linebackers Lance Dixon (Penn State) and Lee Kpogba (Syracuse), but the defense is largely youthful and unproven.

Head coach Pat Narduzzi finally broke Pitt through the barriers, winning the team's first ACC Championship behind third-place Heisman finishing quarterback Kenny Pickett and Biletnikoff-winning receiver Jordan Addison. Both Pickett and Addison depart, but the Panthers return 17 starters from a year ago, including much of their defense.

Quarterback Kedon Slovis, a three-year starter at USC who transferred into the program in January, takes the reins from Pickett, and it is Slovis who took the starting job at USC from his opponent in this game, JT Daniels. Pitt returns a three-headed rushing attack that combined for over 1,700 yards last season in a pass-happy offense, and the team is optimistic that Akron transfer Konata Mumpfield, a freshman All-American last year, and Louisiana Tech transfer Bub Means will slot alongside the ever reliable cowboy of Pitt's offense, Jared Wayne and replace Addison's production from a year ago.

Just like the Mountaineers, Pitt returns its entire starting offensive line, including four sixth-year seniors. The defense is known for its havoc-style of play, generating pressures and sacks at the risk of giving up the big play. Captain linebacker Sirvocea Dennis and junior defensive tackle Calijah Kancey are the top two NFL draft prospects on the team and splash players on defense that WVU will be aiming to keep out of the backfield.

This rivalry game will come down to which team can better secure the pocket for its quarterback. Neither Daniels nor Slovis are known for their rushing abilities, and both WVU and Pitt feature strong defensive lines and continuity on the offensive lines. With so many new pieces for West Virginia, and Daniels just joining the team over the summer, the question of whether all the pieces are ready to fit together yet is present. No matter what happens, we're excited that this rivalry is back after 11 years of dormancy and that college football is back in general.

Pick: Pitt -7.5

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