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One of the best available free agents this offseason finally signed with a team. Cody Bellinger's three-year deal with the Chicago Cubs shouldn't have come as a surprise, other than how long it took for the parties to agree to a reunion.
Last year with the Cubs, Bellinger had his best season since winning the NL MVP award. The $80 million contract seems reasonable given what Bellinger did last year. With opt-outs after each year, another MVP-caliber season can see Bellinger go and get a bigger payday elsewhere.
So what is the initial fantasy fallout from the signing? Let's have a quick dive into the impact of Bellinger signing with the Cubs.
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What To Expect From Cody Bellinger
As mentioned, last year Bellinger had his best season since winning the NL MVP in 2019. The fact the Dodgers released Bellinger following the 2022 season shows how far he'd fallen in three years. In 2023, Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525, with 26 home runs, 97 RBI, 95 runs, and 20 stolen bases (in 130 games).
The bounceback was a surprise given he hit .193/.256/.355 with 29 HRs, 104 RBI, 109 runs, and 17 SBs in 239 games over the previous two years. Bellinger has had noticeable changes in his batting stance in recent years. It seems like last year he found one that works again. If he can replicate it in 2024, it should go a long way to helping Bellinger have success again this season.
Cody Bellinger pic.twitter.com/yjRkm2xhGJ
— Danny Vietti (@DannyVietti) March 1, 2023
Bellinger has been healthy over the last two years. His only IL stint in the previous two seasons was a knee contusion he suffered last year, after making an outstanding catch at the outfield wall. His projections of only playing 130 games in 2024 may be a bit on the light side.
ATC projects Bellinger to hit .258/.319/.448 with 22 HRs, 80 RBI, 79 runs, and 17 SBs. His 20 SBs last year were a career-high, but given the rule changes, it should be repeatable. As Bellinger had 23 xHR (expected home runs) and a .268 xBA (expected batting average), those projections appear fair.
Bellinger has an ADP (average draft position) of ~55 in NFBC drafts. With eligibility at first base and outfield, his 20/20 potential along with plenty of RBI and runs makes Bellinger a solid option. His ADP might move closer to 50 in the coming weeks which is about as early as he should be taken.
How Will The Cubs Lineup Be Affected?
The majority of Bellinger's playing time came in center field. That will likely be the case this year. The Cubs acquired Michael Busch, saying he would play first base (especially against right-handed pitching). Matt Mervis is still lurking in the minors as an option at first base too.
Christopher Morel is getting a chance at third base. Even if that doesn't stick, he should be a regular DH (designated hitter) considering comments from Craig Counsell. Patrick Wisdom could end up platooning with Busch at first base with Nick Madrigal also sprinkled in at the hot corner.
Christopher Morel to focus on 3B at start of camp.
Counsell: “It’s our job to figure out the best way to deploy (his bat). To say he can play a lot of positions, yes. We have to play them at a certain level that it makes sense for the bat to be in there.” https://t.co/3lxEDayhjZ
— Meghan Montemurro (@M_Montemurro) February 18, 2024
With Seiya Suzuki and Ian Happ locked into the corner outfield spots, Mike Tauchman appears as the odd man out. Given his ADP was ~697, he wasn't anything other than a flyer with your last pick. Morel shouldn't see any change to his likely playing time, nor should Busch at this stage.
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