Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Week 16

December 27, 2020

Drew Deen's top expert betting picks for NFL Week 16. Drew finished the 2020 season with over 20 units in winnings and is already 89-48 start in 2020 for over 54 units.

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Last week was another solid week going 7-3, including a win on the largest bet of the week with three units on the Bills/Colts Teaser.  Our total moves to 89-48 year-to-date moving into the week 16 slate.  Merry Christmas to all of you and thank you for reading this season.  Be sure to tell a friend about RB and the betting picks.

No football movie/tv show theme this week as I'm gearing up for some travel.  If you ever have a suggestion or a favorite movie or show to feature, slide in dem DM's.

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing. Also, be sure to check out the betting tools.

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information for those of you that are reading for the first time. Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units. If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes. For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor. For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

• Example: 2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
• Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following: 22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
• Mr. Garage Guy would be the following: 22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
• Mr. Danny Boi would be the following: 22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

Everyone finished in the green. However, Mr. Danny Boi made more financially than the others on his unit scale. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Week 16 Betting Card

Here, I will post my Week 16 betting picks. Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial. Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+54.75u) 89-48 Total [3-0 on 4&5U plays]

• 0-1.5U Risk Record: 59-38
• 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record: 27-10
• 4-5U Risk Record: 3-0

I'm releasing this earlier this week because we have Saturday games, but the card is incomplete and will be revised with more plays.  Check back Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Last Updated: Sunday 7:15 AM EST

• Bucs/Lions Under 55 - Risk 1.1u to win 1u - Win
• Dolphins ML  - Risk 1.95u to win 1.5u - Win
• Browns/Jets Over 47 - Risk 1.65u to win 1.5u - This was posted prior to the news about all of the Browns WR's missing the game due to 'Rona and the total has dropped to 44.  I still think the Browns can score points against this Jets D with their two star RB's and three above-average TE's, but I'm changing this to a 1.1u to win 1u play over 44.  If you already played it at 47, it is an unlucky break. 
• Giants +10 vs Ravens - Risk 1.15u to win 1u
• Colts/Bears 6.5pt Teaser (Colts +8.5 & Bears -1.5) - Risk 1.8u to win 1.5u
• WFT ML vs Panthers - Risk 1.15u to win 1u
• Seahawks ML vs Rams - Risk 1.7u to win 1.5u
• Eagles/Cowboys Under 50 - Risk 1.1u to win 1u
• Packers/Titans Under 54 - Risk 1.1u to win 1u
• Bears/Bills 6.5pt Teaser (Bears -1.5, Bills -0.5) - Risk 1.2u to win 1u
• Colts/Bills 6.5pt Teaser (Colts +8.5, Bills -0.5) - Risk 1.2u to win 1u
• (Ungraded) YOLO Parlay/Teaser: Browns, Texans, Colts, Bears, & Bills 7pt Teaser - Risk 0.6u to win 2u

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