Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Week 15

December 19, 2020

Drew Deen's top expert betting picks for NFL Week 15. Drew finished the 2020 season with over 20 units in winnings and is already 82-45 start in 2020 for over 49 units.

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Another huge week last week going 6-2 and hitting our third big play of the season with four units on the Bucs/Seahawks Teaser.  This week I have put a ton of work in and I'm looking to keep the heater going for all of us.  I'm releasing this earlier this week because we have Saturday games, but the card is incomplete and will be revised with more plays.

No football movie/tv show theme this week as I'm gearing up for some travel.  If you ever have a suggestion or a favorite movie or show to feature, slide in dem DM's.

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing. Also, be sure to check out the betting tools.

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information for those of you that are reading for the first time. Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units. If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes. For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor. For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

• Example: 2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
• Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following: 22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
• Mr. Garage Guy would be the following: 22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
• Mr. Danny Boi would be the following: 22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

Everyone finished in the green. However, Mr. Danny Boi made more financially than the others on his unit scale. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Week 15 Betting Card

Here, I will post my Week 15 betting picks. Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial. Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+49.25u) 82-45 Total [2-0 on 4&5U plays]

• 0-1.5U Risk Record: 53-35
• 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record: 26-10
• 4-5U Risk Record: 3-0

I'm releasing this earlier this week because we have Saturday games, but the card is incomplete and will be revised with more plays.  

I like but don't love several spots this week so sticking with 1u risks across the board except for our pending Bills teaser.  If the Colts can close out the teaser with a win against a bad Texans team, we will be off and running for week 15 and need the 1u plays to finish .500 or better.  

• Bills/Colts 6pt Teaser (Bills Pick'em & Colts -1.5) - Risk 3.3u to win 3u - Pending/First Leg Winner
• Bills/Steelers 7pt Teaser (Bills +1 & Steelers -6) - Risk 1.3u to win 1u - Pending/First Leg Winner
• Panthers +8 vs Packers - Risk 1.1u to win 1u - Push
• Colts/Seahawks 6pt Teaser (Colts -1.5, Seahawks -0.5) - Risk 1.1u to win 1u
• Jaguars/Ravens over 48 - Risk 1.1u to win 1u
• Jaguars +13 versus Ravens - Risk 1.1u to win 1u
• Dolphins ML versus Patriots - Risk 1,15u to win 1u
• Cardinals/Eagles under 50 - Risk 1.1u to win 1u
• Cardinals/Seahawks 6pt Teaser (Cardinals Pick'em, Seahawks -0.5) - Risk 1.1u to win 1u
• Vikings/Bears over 47 - Risk 1.1u to win 1u
• Falcons/Bucs over 49 - Risk 1.1u to win 1u

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