Chef's Special - NFL Best Bets for Thanksgiving

November 26, 2020

Drew Deen's top expert betting picks for NFL Thanksgiving. Drew finished the 2019 season with over 20 units in winnings and is already off to a 61-42 start in 2020 for over 27 units.

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Welcome back to a special edition of my betting piece for the two-game Thanksgiving slate. The news just broke about the Ravens and Steelers game being postponed.  This sucks because it was the best game on the slate, and now we only have two games to watch while we gain weight.

The cold streak of the season has officially hit me with the last couple of weeks hurting the overall record.  I wish it could always be as easy as the first 8 weeks of the season, but that is not how this works with the best in the world handicapping at a 55% win rate.  Hopefully, another hot streak is around the corner before playoff football is here.

Before getting too far into the post, please refer to this post as an introductory piece before continuing. Also, be sure to check out the betting tools.

Introduction to Chef's Special Betting Picks

***Read only if it is your first week here***

This week I will layout a little more information for those of you that are reading for the first time. Last year I handicapped the entire season and had a solid year finishing up 20+ units. If you are new or unfamiliar with the terminology, I will explain (also use Google if you need it).

In a nutshell, it is a way to measure the size of a bet for players of all bankroll sizes. For example, @Uncle_Leo may have a standard bet size of $10, @GarageGuyChase may have a standard bet size of $25, and @ThunderDanDFS may have a standard bet size of $50.

The weight of a unit would mean different financial gain for all of these players but tracks how well someone is doing betting as a sports bettor. For all of you basic bois, let's use my results from last year as an example - see below:

• Example: 2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total Bets [7-2 on 4&5U plays]
• Mr. Uncle Leo would be the following: 22.5U x $10 = $225 in the green on the season
• Mr. Garage Guy would be the following: 22.5U x $25 = $562.50 in the green on the season
• Mr. Danny Boi would be the following: 22.5U x $50 = $1125 in the green on the season.

Everyone finished in the green. However, Mr. Danny Boi made more financially than the others on his unit scale. With that being said, I performed equally for all parties.

Drew Deen's (@ChefBoiRDeen) Thanksgiving Betting Card

Here, I will post my Thanksgiving slate picks. Staying consistent with your unit size is crucial. Without it, it will seem as if I am doing better or worse than I actually am because some wins/losses will be weighted differently than the others.

2019 NFL Best Bets (+22.5u) 64-54 Total [7-2 on 4&5U plays]

2020 NFL Best Bets (+27.25u) 61-42 Total [2-0 on 4&5U plays]

• 0-1.5U Risk Record: 39-33
• 1.51U - 3.99U Risk Record: 20-9
• 4-5U Risk Record: 2-0

I was only going to release one play, but where is the fun in that?  I added a player prop to extend the card to three plays for those that want to get more action on the line.  

• Texans ML vs Lions - Risk 1.55U to win 1U
• Washington +3 vs Cowboys - Risk 1.15U to win 1U
• Washington: Logan Thomas Over 2.5 Receptions - Risk 0.7U to win 0.5U

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