CFB Expert Heisman Futures Betting Picks

September 10, 2020

Nick Federline's top picks for the 2020 Heisman Trophy race in college football. He analyzes Vegas' available futures bets and recommends the top expert bets.

Despite a smaller field of teams playing college football this fall, decision-makers have confirmed that the College Football Playoff will be played, and the Heisman trophy will be awarded. With many top players opting out of the season to prepare for the draft, this year's field of Heisman hopefuls will bring some new faces to the familiar group of favorites.

A season ago, Joe Burrow shattered many of the Heisman trophy voting records and came close to a unanimous win. Burrow's unexpected rise to stardom could be the path followed by any number of players in this year's field, as we seek to find the next Heisman winner.

As the 2020 fall college football season approaches, also take a look at some of our expert CFB conference futures picks. Also, every week this season, we will bring you expert betting picks and content to help guide you through the college football season.

A History of the Heisman Trophy

The Heisman trophy, which is annually awarded to the "most outstanding player in college football," was first awarded in 1935. In a normal year, all living Heisman trophy winners and the current year's finalists are invited to New York City to welcome the newest member of their elite group.

The Heisman trophy has been dominated in recent years by quarterbacks, but that has not always been the case. Up until the turn of the 21st Century, running backs were the typical winners. With the way that the game has changed and the introduction of the air raid offenses, expect the recent dominance of quarterbacks to continue. Below is the list of historical Heisman winners by position.

In recent years, the foregone conclusion in most years is that a quarterback on a contending team should enter the year as a favorite to win it. This year's odds reflect that, as the last ten Heisman award winners are seen below.

The Favorites

Unsurprisingly, Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence enters 2020 as the odds-on favorite to win the Heisman, coming off an impressive season with 3,665 passing yards, 36 touchdowns and 8 interceptions for the national runners-up. Lawrence will be without top pass-catcher Tee Higgins from a year ago, but the plethora of talented 5-star recruits surrounding him justify his position as the favorite.

In 2017 and 2018, Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray became the first duo of quarterbacks to win the Heisman trophy in back-to-back years from the same school. In 2019, Jalen Hurts nearly continued the trend with an extremely strong campaign for coach Lincoln Riley. This year's new starter, redshirt freshman Spencer Rattler, is receiving more hype than some might expect for a player with 11 career passing attempts. Rattler, a dual-threat quarterback, has talented play-makers around him like receiver Charleston Rambo, and has the pedigree (consensus 5-star recruit out of high school) to put up some gaudy statistics in 2020.

Sam Ehlinger enters his fourth year as the Texas Longhorns' starting quarterback to much fanfare. In 2019, Ehlinger improved statistically across the board with 32 touchdowns, and only 10 interceptions. The marketing major from Austin, Texas, also poses a threat with his legs - as proven by his 16 rushing touchdowns in 2018. Ehlinger has talented receivers in Tarik Black, a Michigan transfer, and Brennan Eagles that will need to have big seasons if he hopes to hoist the Heisman this fall.

D'Eriq King enters 2020 as one of the most highly anticipated transfer quarterbacks this season. After a prolific 2018 campaign in which King accounted for 50 touchdowns, he played only four games in 2019 in order to preserve a redshirt for 2020. A graduate transfer from Houston, King hopes to take the Miami Hurricanes back to their early 2000's greatness. Miami's offense as a whole struggled mightily in 2019, and the young offensive line and inconsistent quarterback play. King's mobility and experience gives Hurricanes fans hope that 2020 will be a good one for "The U" and that it might come with some shiny hardware like the Heisman trophy.

Sleepers

When Mack Brown decided to reenter coaching last year at the age of 67, expectations were fairly low for his North Carolina Tar Heels team. After an impressive freshman campaign by his quarterback Sam Howell, expectations now are sky high. Howell threw for 38 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions a true freshman, and brought the Tar Heels out of the basement of the ACC and to their first bowl win since 2013. With his top 3 receivers - Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome and Beau Corrales - all returning for 2020, Howell should be a strong contender if he can avoid a sophomore slump in his second year in Chapel Hill.

Kellen Mond, the highly touted quarterback of Texas A&M, enters his fourth season as the Aggies starting quarterback. Mond entered 2019 with much fanfare, but stumbled as he could not replicate his strong sophomore campaign. With a wealth of experience, having started 36 career games, and a difficult 10-game gauntlet of a schedule, Mond has both the requisite experience and challenging opponents needed to impress Heisman voters. Mond will need to improve on his 20 passing touchdowns and 9 interceptions from a year ago if he hopes to compete for the most prestigious award in college football and follow in the footsteps of Texas A&M's most recent Heisman winner, Johnny Manziel.

Another ACC school that had a great bounce-back season under a first year head coach was Louisville last season. Head coach Scott Satterfield brought a high-tempo offense with him from Appalachian State, and the Louisville Cardinals offense flourished under his guidance with quarterback Micale Cunningham leading the way. Cunningham was incredibly efficient throwing only 5 interceptions against 22 touchdowns, and added 482 yards rushing. With top receiver Tutu Atwell, and top running backs Javian Hawkins and Hassan Hall, back for 2020, Cunningham has the weapons around him for a monster season.

John Rhys Plumlee split time last season as the starting quarterback for Ole Miss. In 9 games as a true freshman, he displayed an impressive rushing ability with 1,023 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. The lackluster part of his game was his passing as he completed only 52.7% of his throws and had a dismal 4 touchdowns against 3 interceptions. For bettors looking for a value pick, Plumlee has a high floor with his impressive rushing ability, and will have plenty of marquee match-ups in the SEC. If Plumlee can show significant improvement in the passing game, and replicate his rookie rushing numbers, he could be a Heisman long-shot to keep an eye on.

The Picks:

Sam Howell +2000 to win the Heisman

Micale Cunningham +12500 to win the Heisman

John Rhys Plumlee +15000 to win the Heisman

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