RADIO
I’m going to change things up a bit for you guys this week. I’ve decided it would be more beneficial for the readers if I wrote four buys and only two sells in my articles. I'll discuss additional players who are overdue for a hot-streak, and spend less time on guys whose value depends largely on the league’s preference.
Also, since we are approaching the midway point of the season, I’m going to begin to focus my articles on bigger named players with the occasional waiver wire sleepers. This approach is to help target players who can be traded for lower than their original draft value.
Fantasy Baseball Hitters To Buy
Adrian Gonzalez – 1B, Dodgers
Adrian Gonzalez has produced decent stats so far this year, with the exception of his .248 AVG. However, this will begin to recover and his other standard scoring statistics should improve. His BABIP currently sits at .268, which is well below his career .320 BABIP. This explains his paltry .248 AVG compared to his .292 career batting AVG.
A great sign of things to come is Gonzalez’s .198 ISO. This would be the third year in a row that his ISO has risen, if it stays there. His HR/FB ratio has risen for the third straight year as well, and now sits at 15.2%, which is remarkably close to his 15.4% career average. We have also seen a higher BB/K ratio of .55 than in the past two years. Gonzalez power has nearly returned to his pre-shoulder injury days, and when his BA correction happens, you'll want to be able to reap it.
Gonzalez will still come at a hefty price, but his past two years have diminished his value considerably. Expect him to break out into the player he was with the Padres and the Red Sox.
Chris Davis – 1B, Orioles
It was inevitable that Chris Davis would eventually fall from the baseball heavens. His 53 HR last year came out of nowhere and now owners are stuck with the player he was before last year. His .225 AVG has to be disappointing to any owner who drafted him in the first round. Take advantage of this fact because it is about to change.
His .280 BABIP is well below his career .331 and his .220 ISO, while not the gigantic .348 he hit last year, is still respectable. Some great signs are that Davis is hitting less ground balls (34.9% verse career 36.0%), and more line drives (26.4% verse career 23.2%). Unfortunately, this is taking away from Davis’ FB%, which is affecting his chances of hitting more HR, but still owns an eye-popping 24.0% HR/FB ratio and 110 wRC+. The home runs will be plentiful, and even more so as his BA improves.
Evan Gattis – C / OF, Braves
Over the past 14 days, Evan Gattis has a .435 AVG and .761 SLG to compliment 4 HR, 8 R, and 12 RBI. During this stretch, his wRC+ is at 247. He is first among catchers in HR (15) and second in RBI (36). Gattis doesn’t have much history to project him from, but this season he has shown an increase in fly balls to 49.0% and a decrease in ground balls to 37.2%. His LD % is a paltry 13.2%, so even though he is absolutely smashing the ball, you can expect his BABIP and BA to drop a little bit.
Still though, we haven't seen this type of power from a catcher in years. While the price for Gattis is pretty high right now, there's a possibility of the Braves moving Gattis to the outfield and him getting a second position eligibility, and we can easily see 30 HR for him when the season is over. You need to get your hands on this guy as soon as you can because he is showing no signs of slowing down.
Brett Lawrie – 3B, Jays
In only 269 at-bats this season, Brett Lawrie has hit 11 HR, which ties his previous two seasons that took him 536 and 442 at-bats. His BABIP is still below his career average of .290 and currently at .249, so expect his .238 AVG to increase when his BABIP comes back to normal. Like Adrian Gonzalez, Lawrie’s .169 ISO is currently better than it has been the previous two years and would be his third year in a row with it increasing.
Lawrie is hitting a FB% of 39.9% this year, but his production has come from a 13.6% HR/FB ratio. He would be a nice piece to have in a lineup if he can be had on the cheap, and many owners are likely still undervaluing him based on the past two years. Keep an eye on his recent hand injury, but X-rays came back negative and he's only considered day-to-day.
Fantasy Baseball Hitters To Sell
Robinson Cano – 2B, Mariners
The move to Safeco Field has severely affected Robinson Cano’s HR production, which is only four at this point.
His GB% has risen to surprising 54.5% and his FB% has dropped to 22.1%. Even when he is hitting fly balls, the enormous Safeco has dropped his HR/FB ratio to only 7.8%.
For such a high draft pick, his value has taken a huge hit this year. Even if he is hitting .327, his lack of first-round production in other statistics leads me to selling him off to the highest bidder. I’d attempt to get a solid third or fourth round draft pick for him as far as value. Anything higher is a steal.
Matt Carpenter – 2B / 3B, Cardinals
Matt Carpenter has an elite line drive rate at 27%, and his .344 BABIP is nice and robust, but he only has a .283 AVG to show for it. Compared to last year’s .318 AVG (supported by a .359 BABIP), he has shown a decrease in production from last year’s campaign that resulted in 126 R. Carp is also swinging at less pitches this year, which gives him less opportunities to put the ball in play, which is how he generates the majority of his value.
He's shown little power this season with a .087 ISO and only three HR so far, and he has close to zero speed. He has never been a power hitter, but his 11 HR last year were a nice add-on. His 44 R this year are very nice, and he should approach 95 runs again, but with little power and no speed, unless Carpenter is batting over .320 he is not worth all that much. It's time to start shopping, as Carp's perceived value is very likely higher than his actual value.
